As we approach the end of the season, it’s a good time to consider how this years 3yos are shaping up.
I think that the top colts are above average and there is depth for the milers and further, but not much amongst the sprinters.
The litmus test is how they have done against the older horses, and Charles Dickens set the scene with a scintillating run when smashing a field of very useful older horses when badly out at the weights in an Allowance Plate. He followed that up with an excellent effort in the Kings Plate, disposing of Jet Dark and Kommetdieding and narrowly losing to Al Muthana, who on his day is as good a miler as any we have seen the past few years.
Cousin Casey chased him home in the Cape Guineas and then ran a very respectable race in the Met, not beaten far by the same two older champions.
I was initially sceptical of the Cape Derby form, as CD did not seem to stay, but See It Again has franked that form with a good effort in the KZN Guineas and then a very smart win in the Daily News.
The Gauteng contingent have been inconsistent, with the de Kock stable uncharacteristically off form. Anfields Rocket has run 5lb behind Trip of Fortune in the Horse Chestnut after winning the Classic. Jimmy Don won the Highveld Derby after being runner up in the Classic, but the Gauteng 3yos are looking average.
Milers in order of ability: Charles Dickens, Cousin Casey, See It Again, Dave The King
2000m in order; See It Again, Cousin Casey, Charles Dickens, Dave The King,
Thunderstruck ran a good race in the Golden Horse sprint, but there were no 3yo sprinters in the Cape big races, nor on the Highveld, so this category is weak.
Make it Snappy is the standout 3yo filly, having won the Cape Fillies Guineas and then the Paddock Stakes where she beat most of the good older F&M. Sadly she has not appeared in the KZN season, and the rest are OK but haven’t looked above average. The older F&M have held sway in the races that are now opened up to all ages.
The Gold Challenge, the July and the Champions Cup will confirm whether the 3yo colts are indeed above average over a mile and further. There is a chance for a filly to put her hand up in the Garden Province.
I think that Charles Dickens will win the Gold Challenge and the Champions Cup, and that a 3yo will run the best rating, if not actually winning the July.
Last edit: 2 years 3 days ago by PeterD.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Dave Scott, Sylvester, Elmo
Is it correct that no 3yr old horse has carried 56/57kg to victory in the July, in the last 30 yrs or so .. barring Legislate, who did not actually cross the line first?
Is it correct that no 3yr old horse has carried 56/57kg to victory in the July, in the last 30 yrs or so .. barring Legislate, who did not actually cross the line first?
Merit rating I think commenced for the July in 1998 or 1999. It will be often after these dates for 3yo's to carry more weight.
Bold Silvano carried 55,5kgs to win
Igugu 55kgs carried to win.
Prior to that 3yo's were much "better in" at the weights.
Bush Telegraph won numerous Grades 1 before the July and was undefeated I think 8 times prior but only carried 48kgs or 49kgs. Was ridden by Garth Puller and trained bt Bert Abercrombie.
Abercrombie won the July as a jockey as well. Muis Roberts will try to emulate the feat with David Payne the only other to do the double as a jockey and trainer.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sylvester, Sealegs
Considering only one 3yo carried more than 56kg in that period (Abashiri=59kg) there is no sample with which to make such analysis. The question being asked is irrelevant.
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