HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE 28 February 2023

HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

• SplashOut Cape Derby (Grade 1)

SEE IT AGAIN has had his merit rating raised from 104 to 124 following his triumph in the Grade 1 SplashOut Cape Derby over 2000m on the summer course at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday 25 February. The Handicappers took the view that 4th placed AT MY COMMAND made for the most suitable line horse here, which leaves him unchanged on a mark of 114.

3rd placed WITHOUT QUESTION goes up from 99 to 119, while there were also increases for ROCKPOOL, who is up from 101 to 109 and for GRINKOV, who was raised from 102 to 105.

There were no ratings drops for any runner in this race.


• Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes (Grade 2)

BEREAVE has had his rating raised from 107 to 120 after winning the Grade 2 Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes over 1200m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. Here it was 3rd placed TRIP OF FORTUNE who was considered to make for the best line horse, which leaves him unchanged on a rating of 119.

Aside from the winner, the only other increase was for 5th placed COUNTDOWN, who was raised from 102 to 109 to at least make him the equal of his fellow three-year-old WE’RE JAMMING, who finished behind him at level weights in 7th place and who remains on a mark of 107.

There were ratings drops for four horses. SILVER OPERATOR is down from 119 to 117, CARTEL CAPTAIN drops to 107 from 110, FIREALLEY was trimmed from 110 to 109, and lastly COSMIC HIGHWAY is down from 116 to 113.


• SplashOut Prix Du Cap (Grade 3)

LIVE MY LIFE has had her rating increased from 103 to 114 after she captured the Grade 3 SplashOut Prix Du Cap for fillies and mares over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. Here it was 3rd finisher GIMME’S LASSIE who was deemed to make for the most suitable line horse, which leaves her unaltered on a mark of 107.

There were also increases for 4th placed GIMME DAT, who is up from 105 to 107, and for 5th placed GOING UP, who was raised from 104 to 105.

There were no ratings drops for any runner in this race.


• Schweppes Cape Oaks (Listed)

SAARTJIE has had his rating raised from 84 to 105 after she won the Listed Schweppes Cape Oaks for three-year-old fillies over 2000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the opinion that 4th placed GOLD POKER GAME made for the best line horse here, which leaves her unchanged on a rating of 102.

3rd placed BROADWAY GIRL was raised from 87 to 103, SILVERLINKS was raised from 94 to 97. ALPHABETTY, who produced a performance figure of 95, was only picked up from 73 to 84 to at least make her the equal of the 84-rated LADY SILVANO.

The only drop was for runner-up HOLD MY HAND, who goes from 108 to 104 to make her one pound lower than the winner.


• Gordon’s Gin Jet Master Stakes (Listed)

PACAYA has had his rating increased from 98 to 104 following his success in the Listed Gordon’s Gin Jet Master Stakes over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. Here it was 3rd placed ZAPATILLAS who was used as the line horse, which leaves him unchanged on a mark of 122.

Runner-up QUASIFORSURE was raised from 98 to 104, while HAN SOLO goes up from 100 to 104. The only other increase was for 6th placed SILVANO’S DASHER, who goes up from 106 to 110 to at least make him one pound higher than the 109-rated 7th finisher SILVANO’S TIMER.

There were drops for four horses. CAT DADDY is down from 104 to 103, WARRIOR drops from 117 to 115, HOEDSPRUIT drops from 114 to 112, and lastly ROCKIN’ RINGO is down to 107 from 108.


• Acacia Stakes (Grade 3)

CLAFOUTIS has had her rating raised from 94 to 96 after winning the Grade 3 Acacia Stakes for fillies and mares over 1600m on the standside track at Turffontein on Sunday 26 February. The Handicappers were of the unanimous opinion that 4th placed TERRA TIME made for the best line horse, which leaves her unchanged on a mark of 101.

The specific conditions of this race do not permit an increase in the rating of any horse beyond the winner, and as such runner-up QUEEN OF SHADOWS and 3rd placed Hollywoodbound remain unchanged on ratings of 91 and 100 respectively, despite running to marks of 95 and 102, respectively. It is worth noting that QUEEN OF SHADOWS had run to marks of 96 and 95 in her last two starts, but both of those were placed efforts in Pinnacle events and accordingly her rating could not be raised on either occasion.

Four horses were given a drop. SUPREME QUEST, who had been dropped from 100 to 96 after the weights for this event were published, was given a further small drop and is now on a mark of 95. BOLD FORTUNE is down from 98 to 95, RAIN IN HOLLAND drops from 114 to 111, and lastly ULULATE goes from 91 to 88.


• Lady’s Pendant (Listed)

RED BERRY has had her rating raised from 87 to 96 after landing the Listed Lady’s Pendant for fillies and mares over 1200m on the Fairview turf course on Friday 24 February. It was 4th placed SOUND CHECK who was deemed to make for the best line horse, which leaves her unchanged on a mark of 84.

Aside from the winner, the only other increase was for EUROPEAN SUMMER, who goes up from 78 to 81.

There were ratings drops for two horses. FRANCA is down from 102 to 99, while SACRED LOTUS drops slightly from 83 to 82.


• Ibhayi Stakes (Listed)

KHAYA’S HOPE remains unaltered on a mark of 107 after capturing the Listed Ibhayi Stakes for three-year-olds over 1400m on the Fairview grass on Friday. Here it was 4th placed SAND BANK who was used as the line horse, leaving him unchanged on a mark of 88. In assessing the race this way KHAYA’S HOPE only runs to a rating of 101, hence his unchanged mark.

Runner-up BLACKBERRY MALT was raised from 86 to 96, while 3rd finisher ZATARA MAGIC was picked up from 85 to 91.

The only drop was for ACORN, who is down from 83 to 81.

Barring Charles Dickens, See It Again, is the highest rated colt/gelding in the country. Make It Snappy is 125.

If Al Muthana is nominated for the July it will carry,

Al Muthana = 60kgs
Then highest rated distance horse = 124 = 55.5kgs (Do It Again, Pomp And Power, Safe Passage)
Make It Snappy = 125 = 54kgs
See It Again = 124 = 53.5kgs
Cousin Casey = 122 = 53kgs (minimum 3yo colt/gelding)

If Al Muthana then gets scratched everything will go up by 4.5kgs.

If Al Muthana is not nominated,

124 = 60kgs (Do It Again, Pomp And Power, Safe Passage)
See It Again = 124 = 57kgs (maximim 3yo colt/gelding)
Cousin Casey = 122 = 57kgs (maximum 3yo colt/gelding)
Make It Snappy = 125 = 56kgs (maximum 3yo filly)

The biggest winner in this scenario is Make It Snappy.

Imo the ratings are bollocks - much too high - we will see

Frodo wrote:

Imo the ratings are bollocks - much too high - we will see

Pacaya and Quasiforsure are rated 104. They have live chances of winning the Greyville 1900 and if the conditions are the same the maximum they can go up is 6 to 110.

If Al Muthana is not nominated or scratched before the weights are declared, they will be real contenders.

Frodo wrote:

Imo the ratings are bollocks - much too high - we will see

Agree...

In all of the assessed races, there seems to be only one line horse...having another 1/2 would help validate the assessments...

With respect to the Cape Derby, I'd use Rockpool, who won over 1800m as the line horse for this 2000m event...than use At My Command, whose best runs, to date, have been up to 1600m, for which he has a 114 rating (Cape Guineas run behind Charles Dickens)...

That would mean that See It Again ran to about 115/116, Charles Dickens to about 113 (first time over the distance and didn't see it out), Without Question to about 110 (improver as he has gone up in distance), At My Command 106...which is closer to the rating he ran to when Rockpool won Politician Stakes...

I think that since this was a grade 1, the ratings have been inflated to reflect the status of the race rather than the merit of the win / field...

The handy assassins has a busy week end.

NHRA not happy just destroying racing they continue to destroy horses futures.

Thyme have the 65-82 MR down pat so much so that to bet on them is financial suicide but the rest is a balls up

For me .... Jet Master Stakes I'd give Pacaya 101 - so that one imo not totally out of whack.

The ratings for the Derby I think are wrong - Rockpool's official rating was 101, for me no reason why he would improve in the Derby, and imo At My Command (and Charles Dickens) did not stay, so taking Rock Pool as a line horse, I only rate See It Again at 112 at most - let's see

Rightly or wrongly, I am also of the view that At My Command does not stay effectively beyond 1600m and therefore to use him as the line horse in the Derby is for my money an error of judgement and as a consequence the race is, in my opinion, too highly rated.

But as always time will tell...

Frodo wrote:

For me .... Jet Master Stakes I'd give Pacaya 101 - so that one imo not totally out of whack.

The ratings for the Derby I think are wrong - Rockpool's official rating was 101, for me no reason why he would improve in the Derby, and imo At My Command (and Charles Dickens) did not stay, so taking Rock Pool as a line horse, I only rate See It Again at 112 at most - let's see

100%

124 is laughable.