Hollywood Durbanville, 05/10/2022

Durbanville Race 5

Very trappy race in that majority are unexposed and trying the distance for the first time. Going to concentrate on the top five in the betting, not order of preference.

Future swing (28/10), drawn 2, last race was a muddled pace and a very slow run race. Winner’s time, Prevalence, would have him finish 10.21 lengths off the fastest winner’s time, Bordolino, over the distance run on the same day. Unfortunately, Future Swing was drawn wide and dropped out but did run on smartly to go down by 0.05. Will be suited by a fast run race especially from the draw.

Release Me (33/10), massive betting support in the second run, the draw (11/11), did him no favours. On breeding, the extra shouldn’t pose any problems. The collateral form is not flash, seven runners, no winners. Not for me.

Contiguous (9/2), keeps finding one to beat him, has finished second three out of four runs. Last time out, was boxed in for a run at a crucial stage of the race, but once finding the gap, ran on to finish a comfortable second – the dreaded inside rail syndrome when turning for home. From the draw, the likely pace setter. Teatro, didn’t do the form any favours by finishing fourth on Saturday. Nevertheless, big runner.

Mohandas (11/2), drawn relatively wide. Ran in a Special Weights Maiden last time, beaten by horses from extremely wide draws, don’t think that was a strong field, so not expecting this to be the likely winner.

The dark horse and value may lie with Director’s Cut (opened 15/2, shortened into 13/2). Being drawn 12/12 certainly doesn’t help matters, coupled with this being the seasonal debut, first run at the track, first time going the distance, etc. If I read the race correctly, a fast run race will do his cause no harm. He is bred to go the distance. From the debut run, the winner has won again and the second, third and fourth placed finishers have all come out and won, so the collateral form has been franked. Watched the race again, and he was inconvenienced twice, without being given a punishing ride. With natural improvement, could run them down and win this. Rowing in with Director’s Cut.

Race 1: #4 ALLENDE (8-10) looks by far the best bet on the card.

She's out of a dam who won 4 sprints and her siblings have to date all been sprinters. She is probably also a sprinter.

There was plenty of support for her on debut when she showed good pace before tiring late. That formline has produced 3 subsequent winners.

Last time she had a wide draw at 11, but bounced out the gates well and went straight to the front. Very interestingly the Computaform has her 5,8L behind at the 800m and 6,1L behind at the 400m (WHAT'S THAT ALL ABOUT???). She skipped on her field at the 400m and had about a 3L advantage on her market rival here #3 SAY YES. She was only collared about 10m from the finishing post by a winner who won again in the Middle Stakes (race 6) on Saturday. She has natural speed and the track conditions will be similar to what she encountered last time, so start-to-finish tactics seem to be the obvious ploy.

#3 SAY YES started to finish well against ALLENDE last time, but she was 1,25L adrift of the selection at the line. She's out of a dam who won up to 2850m and is surely wanting more ground than this quick 1250m.

I'll Slip Away was in 4th 3L behind and that represents runners # 10 and 12 who finished behind I'll Slip Away next time, so those two look held. #8 EVERLASTING ran in a weak Maiden Special Weights when beaten 1L last time and her time in similar conditions (10 days apart admittedly) was nearly 1,4 secs slower than Allende's over the same CD. That equates to about 8L at this trip.

None of the first-timers seem alive.

Please note that I will no longer be posting a full card synopsis on my site bettingmyway.com. You'll be able to read my race time take under the Race Time Analysis section.