#8 TOTAL PROTECTION (7-10) ran on strongly from near last on debut over 1200m at this course. He was heavily eased that day (at the 200m mark) as his jockey found traffic problems. Last time over this CD he was only collared close to home by the winner and with that form being franked by the 3rd on Thursday (the front three pulled 8L clear of the 4th), he looks hard to beat in this field. He looks to have a few wins in him. #7 MAIN MISSION (7-1) improved when stepped up to this trip last time. He had two moderate 4 yr olds just in front of him there though and that form is a lot weaker than that of the Fav. On a collateral formline through a horse called Big Guy he looks to comfortably hold #1. He should find the frame in his field. #6 LORD OF LIGHT (7-1) improved last time when stepped up in trip and this further step up should suit him. #1 CLAP OF THUNDER (3-1) is a one-paced type and he looked totally unsuited to this CD when he was a beaten 1-1 Fav two runs back. He looks held on form and he’s not improving (turning 4 in two weeks). I’M AGAINST HIM.
He’s a short price, but #8 TOTAL PROTECTION IS THE BEST BET on today’s card.
SELECTION: 8-7-6
Race 2: Maiden 1600m
#8 TABBY CAT (1-1) improved over this CD in her 3rd start after two sprints. The winner of that race is highly regarded and she was 4L clear of the 3rd horse National Star who, although battling to win, has run against some decent sorts. From her 1 draw she looks to be well-placed throughout and she should get 1st run on her main rival. She is my first choice. #1 NICE MOVER (2-1) does look to be the main rival to the Fav. However, I do have some negatives with her. Her best races have been her 1450m runs and although her dam did win up to 1600m, I do have concerns that 1600m stretches her stamina. He may be fit, but I also don’t like the fact that her jockey is having his first ride in over a year. As a result I prefer the Fav. #6 SKYFULL (9-2) looked to have found the right field to win last time, but she failed and she’s starting to look a bit exposed now. #7 SUMMERLAND (14-1) failed to win a handicap off a mark of 72 last time and she’s not improving.
I’m not nearly as bullish on this Fav as I am on the one in race 1, but I do still think she’s the one to beat.
SELECTION: 8-1-6
Race 9: 68 Handicap 1450m
#11 PARKER GETRIX (6-1) took a long time to break his maiden despite being a strong traveller in his races. I’ve always thought he might be a punt at a big price when coming into the handicaps, but that has been scuppered (the price that is) by his run in a Graduation last week. He was 32 points out at the weights with the best rated horse last time and 25 points with the winner, but he only got beaten 3,7L. He therefore ran to a mark of somewhere in the mid-70’s in that race. Lowly rated horses running well above their ratings in Plated races is not uncommon and it’s no guarantee of success back in handicaps, but it did show me that my assessment that he would be very competitive in a handicap off his lowly mark of 58 is probably correct. He again travelled really well throughout the race, but he was outclassed late by better opposition. This distance should pose no problems as he won his maiden over it and if he jumps on terms (sometimes slow out the gates) he should go very close from his 4 draw. #9 SILLY FELLA (2-1) is holding his form well and from a 1 draw he’s obviously a big runner. That is all factored into his price at 2-1 though and he is still only a one time winner after 28 attempts. I’m hoping to make it 1/29 with #11 beating him. I’m expecting the winner to be one of these two.
SELECTION: 11-9
See a synopsis for the full card on my blog at bettingmyway.com under the TODAY'S TIPS thread.
Last edit: 2 years 10 months ago by Justanotherpunter.
In R2, 2 out of 3 Treaj Pots offspring have won their first starts, the one who didn’t win on debut, ran second and won second time out. Maybe a small ew on Double Joy?
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