Cape Met - noms - African Betting Clan

Mac
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Re: Cape Met - noms

3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago

At Over The Air - who gives a shit abt prices. The horse care unit wins either way.

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Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Mac.

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Mossel
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Re: Cape Met - noms

3 years 6 months ago

#830463

Peter D knows his horse racing think he has this race summed up correctly

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naresh
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Re: Cape Met - noms

3 years 6 months ago

#830465

Frodo wrote:

PeterD wrote:

IMO just 4 horses can win this:
Rainbow Bridge
Do It Again
Kommetdieding
Linebacker

Mostly agree - I do have doubts if the older horses (RB, DIA) can reach their best levels again - if they can, they would be obvious contenders, but just on the run yesterday where Rascallion edged DIA at level weights, I think the 4yr olds Kommetdieding and Linebacker would be leading lights along with Jet Dark.

WoA - not sure if she is in this class (Summer Cup showed that ) , but haven't checked the weight conditions - if she does get weight she may be a contender.

Interesting that only one 3yr old has been entered (at this stage) :ohmy:

Filles and mares get 2.5kgs sex allowance. 4yo's get 0.5kgs and 3yo's get 6kgs.

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Frodo
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Re: Cape Met - noms

3 years 6 months ago

#830473

naresh wrote:

Frodo wrote:

PeterD wrote:

IMO just 4 horses can win this:
Rainbow Bridge
Do It Again
Kommetdieding
Linebacker

Mostly agree - I do have doubts if the older horses (RB, DIA) can reach their best levels again - if they can, they would be obvious contenders, but just on the run yesterday where Rascallion edged DIA at level weights, I think the 4yr olds Kommetdieding and Linebacker would be leading lights along with Jet Dark.

WoA - not sure if she is in this class (Summer Cup showed that ) , but haven't checked the weight conditions - if she does get weight she may be a contender.

Interesting that only one 3yr old has been entered (at this stage) :ohmy:

Filles and mares get 2.5kgs sex allowance. 4yo's get 0.5kgs and 3yo's get 6kgs.

So on official ratings WoA would be out a bit (she will set to carry 57 kgs right) vs runners like Rainbow Bridge and Jet Dark - but I think they are rated too high - so imo she would be an interesting runner - if she takes up the challenge

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PeterD
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Re: Cape Met - noms

3 years 6 months ago

#830502

Over the Air wrote:

PeterD wrote:

OTA
Everyone is entitled to their opinion. The Summer Cup is a handicap in which I put 12 runners in my pick 6 and jackpot, including all of the first 3 home. The Met is WFA. You can’t compare the two races.
I have left out Jet Dark because I don’t think that he will be as effective over 2000m as he is the mile. I could be wrong about that.
How about a friendly wager:
I’ll donate R1000 to the horse care unit if anything except the 4 on my shortlist win, if you will give them R1000 if one of my 4 wins

Touchy touchy.

I was making a point that not everything is as clear cut as it looks.

Thanks for your offer but I will pass, I'm not that stupid as to take 4 of the top 5 in the betting on at evens. As an actuarial you should be ashamed of yourself offering those odds

Clearly you can’t do simple arithmetic.
The probability of my 4 using the above odds table is approx 72%.
The balance of the book is approx 82%.
The total book approx 154%
Even money is more than fair

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PeterD
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Re: Cape Met - noms

3 years 6 months ago

#830504

I don’t think that War of Athena is quite good enough even with the 2.5kg, and she has the option of the Majorca.
Rascallion is probably the next best.
A horse like Hoedspruit could conceivably improve enough to threaten, but if he does, will get an MR klap and seriously jeopardise his chances in the July.
Russian Rock has ability but his temperament is the question.

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Doyen
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Re: Cape Met - noms

3 years 6 months ago

#830507

@PeterD

is it the fear of a 'MR Klap' the reason CK is not an entry?

The Met is known for springing surprises.
Good milers stay the distance and older horses turn up at big odd.

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PeterD
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Re: Cape Met - noms

3 years 6 months ago

#830624

The Greenpoint runs showed that Linebacker and Rainbow Bridge are on target with their prep for the big one. We saw Kommetdieding and Rascallion in the Cape Mile, and Rascallion and Do It Again in a Pinnacle last week.
Queens Plate day will see most of the Met contenders in action.
So far, no reason to adjust my shortlist.

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