GREYVILLE 3RD JULY - #VDJ2021

Frodo wrote:

bayern wrote: New July race favourite come Saturday morning.

Could be - and although imo LB will struggle the last 200m, one can't be surprised at the support he is getting in the market; I do find it a bit strange that GtG is on the drift - thought that around 5/2 was a fair price; no doubt the best value at current odds are Belgarion and Kommetdieding who are now both available at double the odds they were a week ago.

Imo, one of 8 runners can win the July, my summary as follows - I'll list them in odds order :

Got the Greenlight - looks well handicapped at 55kgs; should surely go close on form; not the ideal prep could be chink in his amour

Linebacker - obvious chance at the weights; for me still a slight doubt on seeing out the last 200m - was running around a bit in the finish in the Daily News - for me I'm not sure he can win, but should finish in the top 3 or 4

Do It Again - does look a different horse in KZN and had a great gallop, at the weights and given luck in running must rate as one of the live contenders for a win - won't hurt that the stable probably has their pace setters (Crown Towers and perhaps Nexus) in place to ensure a true pace

Rainbow Bridge - at set weights, one of the best in the country, but needs to give a lot of weight away here, and though I would not go as far to say that he has no chance, I won't be surprised if he does not find the top 4

Rascallion - not easy to access; on his run in the Daily News, he must have as good a chance as Linebacker, but he seems to be temperamental and was sweating up before his gallop so needs to be watched in the preliminaries; also Linebacker made up a lot of ground on him in the gallop; so another who may struggle to find the top 4, especially if he is seen to be sweating up before the race

Belgarion - tougher task at the weights this year, but imo has improved a lot since his win in this race last year (as witnessed by a great effort in the MET) - after his gallop, Bling has said that he has improved since the Challenge (a trip that is short of his best anyway) - imo not unlikely to find the first 4

Kommetdieding - not far behind Linebacker and Rascallion in the Daily News, so can't be discounted if he can overcome that draw - not sure what the tactics would be, but given luck in running must have a chance

Sovereign Spirit - I have been preaching this one since the betting opened and happy to see that he has now more than halved after being offered at an extremely generous 66/1 earlier; at the weights, must have as good a chance as Rainbow Bridge, Do It Again and Belgarion, and though I would be pleasantly surprised if he wins it, I do think he has a realistic chance of making the top 4

Others that I think could be spooks in the quartet, include Nexus (not badly handicapped), Shah Akbar (not too far behind his fellow 3-yr olds in the Daily News) and Running Brave (good form this track, well handicapped, but of course needs to put her last two runs behind her)