HANDICAP RATINGS UPDATE - Track & Ball Oaks

Looking forward to next week`s discussion

PRESS RELEASE


HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE



Track And Ball Oaks (Grade 2)
KEEP ON DANCING has had her merit rating raised from 82 to 88 after she captured the Grade 2 Track And Ball Oaks for fillies and mares over 2400m at Scottsville on Saturday 19 June. The Handicappers were of the view that ultra-consistent third finisher SILVA MAGIC made for the best line horse here, which leaves her unchanged on a rating of 85.

2nd placed ELECTRIC SURGE was raised from 78 to 85, while 4th finisher MAMA PYJAMA is up from 76 to 82.

There were no other ratings increases, but five horses received a drop. JASMINE is down from 100 to 98, CHITENGO was trimmed from 109 to 108, CATCHAFALLINGSTAR is down to 90 from 92, FLICHITY BY FARR drops from 91 to 88, and lastly CHERRY ROAD goes from 83 to 82,



Track And Ball Derby (Grade 3)
SILVER HOST remains unchanged on a mark of 110 following his success in the Grade 3 Track And Ball Derby over 2400m at Scottsville on Saturday. It was 4th placed FAVOUR who was considered to make for the best line horse here, which leaves him unchanged on a rating of 97. In assessing the race this way, the winner only runs to a mark of 104, hence his unaltered rating.

Second placed DREAM DESTINY was raised from 73 to 98, making him one pound higher than the line horse. In fact, DREAM DESTINY runs to a mark of 101, but the Handicappers opted not to take this literally as it reflects major improvement on anything DREAM DESTINY had previously achieved and opted instead to make him a minimal one pound higher than FAVOUR.

There were no other increases, but two horses were given ratings drop. MARCHINGONTOGETHER is down from 102 to 100, while PAYBACKTHEMONEY was dropped from 97 to 92.



Port Elizabeth Gold Cup (Listed)
MASTER SUPREME has seen his rating raised from 77 to 83 following his victory in the Listed Port Elizabeth Gold Cup over 3200m on the Fairview turf course on Friday, 18 June. It was 3rd placed AFRICA’S GOLD – who won this race in 2020 – who was deemed to make for the best line horse, leaving him unchanged on a rating of 89. In rating the race this way, runner-up STRATHDON also runs to his mark of 105 and remains unchanged, effectively making him a line horse as well.

In winning, MASTER SUPREME actually runs to a mark of 88, but the specific conditions of this race do not permit an increase of more than six pounds for the winner, hence his 83 rating. The race conditions do not permit any increase in the ratings of placed horses, and so 4th finisher ONESIE (who won this race in 2019, when it was run over 3600m) remains unchanged on 80 even though she runs to a mark of 84.

The only drop was for SAN VERDE, who is down from 78 to 74.



Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team

Second placed DREAM DESTINY was raised from 73 to 98, making him one pound higher than the line horse. In fact, DREAM DESTINY runs to a mark of 101, but the Handicappers opted not to take this literally as it reflects major improvement on anything DREAM DESTINY had previously achieved and opted instead to make him a minimal one pound higher than FAVOUR.

So it's ok to raise the horse to 98 - but 101 reflects 'major improvement' :silly:

The problem with rating these races is that very few of the runners have genuine 2400m form, so it becomes largely guesswork.
In particular, with Chitengo running a shocker in the “Oaks”, and Smoking Hot scratched, there was no filly in the top 5 that you can confidently use as a line horse this trip. If either Electric Surge 2nd or Mama Pyjama 4th is made the line horse you get a very different result.
In the “Derby” there is more depth, and the class horse won. However, Pamushanas Pride was smashed with a huge penalty for his run in the Derby behind Malmoos, and clearly can’t be rated higher than Silver Host on this evidence, so should have been dropped at least 6 points to 110.
The PE race is a joke. Strathdon having had just one prep run before this and rising 8 years old, unlikely to have run to his best. Africa’s Gold has been in and out this year, and hardly a convincing line horse. ( His win last year was in a race run at a crawl where he out sprinted them in the straight.) Onesie is a pensioner. The other 3 finishers were a distance back. Fortunately for the winner, the conditions prevent him from being clobbered more than 6.

I'm just having a look at the quality of the Oaks and wondering how this race deserves listed status nevermind Gr.2? In the pre -10 point MR "adjustment" the first 4 past the past were rated 72, 68, 75 and 66. Shocking - and to think this bunch have now earned Bold Black type and will enter the breeding barns as "royalty". It's a disgrace and a slight on our industry,

A question for the MR experts - is it just me or does there seem to be a lets find a line horse that will tell the most plausible story from our handicappers these days?

Over the Air wrote: I'm just having a look at the quality of the Oaks and wondering how this race deserves listed status nevermind Gr.2? In the pre -10 point MR "adjustment" the first 4 past the past were rated 72, 68, 75 and 66. Shocking - and to think this bunch have now earned Bold Black type and will enter the breeding barns as "royalty". It's a disgrace and a slight on our industry,

A question for the MR experts - is it just me or does there seem to be a lets find a line horse that will tell the most plausible story from our handicappers these days?

Slightly off your point, but everything that seems to be done is to suite everyone apart from owners and punters!

Merit rating increase was for what? Bring us into line with international stud books? Then out horses run overseas on lower merit ratings they are sold with

i am still of the opinion the merit rating team of three should be replaced ASAP with three new people and that every three months that team should have members swap out. these three are messing up and have been for sometime.

hopefully once Moddley and co are gone in October then things will change