SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

  • Sylvester
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Re: Re:SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago - 4 years 3 months ago
#814298
SS Rated 106 after this win. from a 76
Cornish P up to 104 from 102
UCTL stays 112
PL down to 109 from 110
DO down to 110 from 112
Bara down to 119 from 124. still to high
Running B stays 119??
Green H down to 108 from 110
Hero H down to 102 from 104
Seven P down from 102 from 103
Last edit: 4 years 3 months ago by Sylvester.

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  • naresh
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Re: Re:SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago
#814302
Frodo wrote: Hi Mac - can't really recall that race - that's probably why I had 8 runners in the P6 on Saturday but left him out (ouch :( ) - and I agree that watching races should be part of form study - anyway one has to be impressed in the manner he dug down on Saturday, so while he clearly has some class, for me I need to see him repeat the performance

I backed Savannah Storm when it broke its maiden in a Maiden Handicap! For some reason the Pick 3 payout paid like R3000 which was extremely high in relation to all other payouts. Due to it carrying 59kgs in the Maiden Handicap I followed and backed it at 25s in its post maiden win. When I saw Neon tip it at 33s, I thought to myself its too big a price. So when I went to check which race it was carded in and I saw it was in a feature and rating only 76, that was that and ignored it completely. On Saturday when I saw it got supported at one stage to 14s, I took another look at it and still could not make a reason it winning as it posted it first win in a maiden handicap on its fourth start. In hindsight when it won its maiden it was its second run over a longer distance but to be so much under sufferance was not for me. I do back horses under sufferance but stop at maximum 10 points and it must be reasons for me why the 10 points wont come into play. So Savannah Storm could be anything over a trip.

The only horse I can remember recently that improved so significantly was Eton Square. It won the Jubilee Handicap on its fourth start with only a maiden win and no feature race placings before. It then ended up finishing fourth in the July in its next start.

Back in the day of Race Figure, Surfing Home ran 4th in the July only in his six start. It was very rare in those days to see a horse with so less starts and winning no features or running a place in a feature to start in the July. Surfing Home after returning from injury did prove he was one of the best around.
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  • Frodo
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Re: Re:SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago
#814322
Sylvester wrote: SS Rated 106 after this win. from a 76
Cornish P up to 104 from 102
UCTL stays 112
PL down to 109 from 110
DO down to 110 from 112
Bara down to 119 from 124. still to high
Running B stays 119??
Green H down to 108 from 110
Hero H down to 102 from 104
Seven P down from 102 from 103

I more or less concur with the top 3 - however not sure where the notion to drop runners that have not run close to their ratings by a few points only. Either the run should be ignored (as in the case of Running Brave) or give them the rating achieved ?

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Re: Re:SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago
#814326
wendywood 2008 tarry

maiden 23 may 2008
woolhavington 7 june 2008
July finished 8th 5 july 2008




naresh wrote:
Frodo wrote: Hi Mac - can't really recall that race - that's probably why I had 8 runners in the P6 on Saturday but left him out (ouch :( ) - and I agree that watching races should be part of form study - anyway one has to be impressed in the manner he dug down on Saturday, so while he clearly has some class, for me I need to see him repeat the performance

I backed Savannah Storm when it broke its maiden in a Maiden Handicap! For some reason the Pick 3 payout paid like R3000 which was extremely high in relation to all other payouts. Due to it carrying 59kgs in the Maiden Handicap I followed and backed it at 25s in its post maiden win. When I saw Neon tip it at 33s, I thought to myself its too big a price. So when I went to check which race it was carded in and I saw it was in a feature and rating only 76, that was that and ignored it completely. On Saturday when I saw it got supported at one stage to 14s, I took another look at it and still could not make a reason it winning as it posted it first win in a maiden handicap on its fourth start. In hindsight when it won its maiden it was its second run over a longer distance but to be so much under sufferance was not for me. I do back horses under sufferance but stop at maximum 10 points and it must be reasons for me why the 10 points wont come into play. So Savannah Storm could be anything over a trip.

The only horse I can remember recently that improved so significantly was Eton Square. It won the Jubilee Handicap on its fourth start with only a maiden win and no feature race placings before. It then ended up finishing fourth in the July in its next start.

Back in the day of Race Figure, Surfing Home ran 4th in the July only in his six start. It was very rare in those days to see a horse with so less starts and winning no features or running a place in a feature to start in the July. Surfing Home after returning from injury did prove he was one of the best around.

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Re: Re:SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago - 4 years 3 months ago
#814332
@ Sylvester. Wendywood although running in its third run in the July was exposed in its second run when winning a Grade 1. On that you can say it was Grade 1 material. Her record of it lining up on its third run in the July, I doubt it will ever be broken. I was so impressed with Wendywood that when ABC had a thread for your best 20 horses that ran in the July, it was one of my runners although it never win.

Back in the day, horses like Elis Truth, Gold Tax, Global News, etc never get a run in the July due to the race figure system. A horse like, The Conglomerate, with never got a run on the race figure system. Then again the July is like by invite as a panel as the final say.

Another thing is that back in the day horses was well raced as juveniles in nearly every jurisdiction. Not anymore except for Australia. They already had Grade 1 races for 2yos.
Last edit: 4 years 3 months ago by naresh.

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  • Mossel
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Re: SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago
#814334
There was an Azzie horse that ran 4 in the July can't rember the name on its 4th or 5th run.

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Re: SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago
#814335
What was the horse that de kock wanted to take the July panel to court with after a lengthy break. Think otter trail or something

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  • naresh
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Re: SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago - 4 years 3 months ago
#814346
Mossel wrote: What was the horse that de kock wanted to take the July panel to court with after a lengthy break. Think otter trail or something

Otter Trail ran 4th in the July after running 4th in the Daily News. I think it was 6th or 7th start in the July.

The horse that you talking about is Gang Related. It ran in the Summer Handicap and its next start was in the July.

When I was in school in the 90s, I remember the horses City State and Anarch. One of the owners went to court to get his horse to run instead of the other horse because it was an emergency acceptor. He lost the case.
Last edit: 4 years 3 months ago by naresh.
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  • Cochrane
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Re: SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 3 months ago
#814364
I saw an analysis done by Jay August and I suspect this was not a big fluke as everyone thinks.

Plus there was outside support for the horse so what do we know.

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  • the hawk
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Re: SAVANNAH STORM turns MR system on it`s head

4 years 2 months ago
#814366
I believe the horse Mossel was referring to is Service Ace who ran 4th in the 2010 VDJ. Trained by Mike Azzie, he came into the race as a 1-time winner but was placed in the SA Derby.
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