R1: Start with a GREENIE in the form of ALL THE STARTS (1.05) but not at a nice price given best PSTATS of 37.93% to W on GRA but is backed up with 15/20 indicators as best so must be the best prospect here. EDITOR does like a bit of Hollywood Thunder (2.20) which have tried this distance before with some decent betting support in June 2019 and with his last 5 runs being 2nd surely has been consistent and is the best GREEN BAT in the field on his 2020224 run of 6.88 with also the best BAMS on all 4 categories a 31.03%chance to win on BAM42. Mystic Tulip (35.00) is maybe not a bad top 4 value proposition given the 3rd best GREEN (Distance category) BAT in the field and Maujean takes the ride only 1.20 lengths to find on best 1300 FVP BAT of All the Stars also only on his 5th run to date. Silver Fountain (5.00) has a stable change and 2nd TCurve and running further recently in KEN with ok SR form can be competitive
R2: We may be looking at a Smith double by now in the form of Hollywood Thunder/lady of Choice (0.80) last run was decent over 1600 FVP running 3rd and Byleveld again onboard for Smith (same as Hollywood Thunder) and likes to go to the front and try stay there. But PSTATS shows no value again for a 0.8 to have best PSTATS of 44.44% to WIn on BAM42 as the best probability in R2 he does have low GRA points so not close to a GREENIE. It could leave the door open for only runner from the Nel stable Salvadora (1.75) with Mxothwa again retaining the ride after a nice CD 2nd on 20200302 just 23 days ago and he does have 11 / 20 categories covered and shows more (I)ntent than Lady of choice with a compounded PSTATS probability of much more than Lady of Choice here given 11/20 categories covered vs 3 so Salvadora will be EDITOR 1st choice here even if Smith wins the 1st purely on a proven CD form that has also been good enough to beat Billy Ann the 3rd places horse on 20200117 by lots on BATS but something must have gone wrong on Billy Anne that day 113.06 BAT although no support that day to 50/1 so Cheyne will have a bit too much to do to win this imo. Winner should come from the 1st 2 mentioned, if not then anything goes...
R3: JACKPOT JEWEL (2.20) is probably one of the better PSTATS choices of the day given a 53.85% chance to WIN from 26 previous occurrences on 13 GRA points and backed up by 46.15% on SR%, 38.46% on ORA and 304.62% on BAT84 as well as leading 11/20 indicators. Also has bolt consistency BUT is not proven on the FVP track yet. His debut FRV run he was supported 3.30 into 1.15 and missend running 2nd so has another go here 28 days later. Ghalyoon (3.45) is top BAM168 with a 50% to WIN and backed up by a 38.46% to WIN on TCurve and 34.62% on BAMC/STAT form and 30.77% on BAM84 so these 2 could perhaps be enough to get us through the 1st leg of the P6 today on probability being high on both but they are not screaming ahead in the BAT form with some runners trying the distance again as well. Falling for you (2.20) has had decent support CD with 3 places and is turning FLAME HOT from his last 20191118 run after the rest and for a FLAME HOT trainer so must be given respect to return even better and is already competitive on his last 12.97 BAT run . Silver Stone improved from his 1st FVP run over 1000 with 11.89 BAT to a 9.48 BAT going further over 1300 FVP when backed in from 8 into 6.50 so on that logic he could prefer the even further 1600 FVP a bit more so could surprise. on that same basis Grey Ferraris and Mark the Doorman did NOT like going further on the BAT going backwards so EDITOR leaving them out of a win chance. Up Early in debuting for Kotzen a very decent trainer in FVP bit his last 1600 run was far worse than his 1200 on BAT so perhaps stable mate Jackpot Jewel is preferred here.
R5: Marmara Sea (2.80 )was going over a much shorter distance than previously in Gauteng when winning over 1000 on his FVP debut so we can only assume that the 200 extra today will suit and his 4.77 BAT42 was already the best in the field. He has a 43.75% to WIN % PSTAT on SR% and also holds 11/20 indicators so must be in with a chance here again but his SR was not "up to it" at 92.89 on FVP debut so hoping this is not a slow run race . Royal Fort and MArco van rensburg did well from a tough draw on last 1200 run with best AT, SR, MS (Median Speed / pace) and with also best BATC could be the challenger here with a 37.5% to WIN on SR and 31.25% to WIN on AT/MS. The Yvette Bremner stable showed a little bit better form last week and Ultra Boost with best ORA on 25% to WIn and ERA on 37.5% to WIN as well as (F)orm on 31.25% to win is not out of the running here He did get beat by Beneficiary last run 20200313 with Beneficiary also 2.75 better on BAT42 on that run but Beneficiary (10.00) seems better on his 1000 runs so on that could fade a bit last 200 . Microbe (5.50) does seems C/D suited winning 2/last3 1200 FVP runs and best SR% shared on 43.75% to win and a much better 13 lengths improvement on BAT41 in 11 days between last 2 runs means he cannot be left without a shout as well BUt the jockey booking Ndlovu does not show much I(ntent) given his previous try on Microbe was drifted from 8 to 16/1 bad run expected and got with only 10th a blemish given runs of 2,2,3,1,7,1 between those but cannot be left from exotics since owned and trained by Strydom . November Storms showed in his only C/D 1200 FVP run he displayed best EDMS - EXACT Distance Median Speed) and he only carries 1 kg more so must have a bit of a chance to succeed here as well . Queensbury Rules (33.00 )is only runner for Des J Mchlachlan and T Gould retains the ride with a remarkable 20 lengths improvements between his last 2 runs to win last run going away and T gould retains the ride but it seems the win was "out of turn" but not unexpected (backed from 40/1 into 33/1) so on that he may produce the "miracle" yet again so cannot be left from exotics . For Luck Sakes shown a form return improving 13 lengths last run with K Steyn riding and now gets Mxothwa booked and what seems a more suitable distance so must be given respect carrying low weight
R6: Travelling will soon be suspended but if you Travel in Style (9.00) there may be a bit of value here for you given a 66.67% PSTAT to WIN on ORA (Overall Ranking) in this FVP 1300 class C event. With also best AT and BATC both 22.2% to WIN his last run 9th is better that we think given a 4.03 BAT42 3rd best here behind 2 Greeff runners and carrying only 52 kg he seems to run better with lighter weight so value at 9/1 with a 6/9 PSTATS probability even if he runs last GOOD PSTAT support. Greef must be having the run of the race here with 5 runners from 10 so already Greeff has a 50% chance to win and there is 4 runners that seems suited for Greeff. Captains Princess (1.85) shows a 55.56% to win on SR% and 44.44% to WIN on GRA and also has best F,S,I,T,BAM42,BAM84 as well as best GREEN BAT42 a figure of 2.49 lengths after gauge improvement on debut FVP run over 1200 on 2020302 and Cheyne retains the ride. Rings and Things (9.00) has shown 3 wins in a row 201906 to 201908 over 120/1600/1400 and his 7.31 BAT over CD is not far off given a 2 draw today and a bad 10 draw last run overlooked/juglall riding. Captains Choice (12.00) has very decent BAT42 form and a very capable jockey to overcome the 9 draw and 2nd best by a small portion on BATC form so a roughy that cannot be overlooked given his consistent last 2 BAT figures over shorter and very decent EX CPT form . Seattle Tango (6.00) best ERA a 33% to WIN and best EDMS a 44.44% to WIN with solid 8.78 CD 1300 FVP BAT84 run is another to consider. Cause and effect (4.50) has best MS and best BAT42, BAt84, BAT168 and his last 1300 FVP run of 8.27 decent as well so another that could pop up for Greeff . Stream of Kindness (12.00) from a 1 draw showed a 1,2,1,2,1 earlier in his career and shows a preference for FVP as a CD winner here with best SR can pop up as well .
R7: TWIN FALLS (6.00) shows good PSTAT support 52.63% to WIN on SR and also has best AT, MS and BATC and best GREEN BAT42 form but his ?? is whether he can do the same on poly that he accomplished on his last 3 GRASS rusn since his poly form is not too great so EDITOR is not trusting PSTATS here 100% . Black Gardenia (6.00) last run over this CD produced a win from same jockey Ndlovu and unexpected for all except the jockey that has good form on him but he improved his BAT42 form so much over the 1300 FVP to a 2.96 2nd best in teh field on GREEN BAT42 form and has a shout. Miss Orange (4.50) with best TCurve a 26% to win as well as best FORM a 42.11 % to win and 9/20 leading indicators with a CD win in a 10.71 BAT figure must be a runner here as well Cheyne on Elusive Diva (4.50) could be his preferred ride and and his 6-1-3 last 6 rides (11.11/66.66% shows good consistent form for the combination . Linda Loves Lace last win was at 3/10 on his debut at FVP and almost seems a bit better over a little further judging on CT form so best on all BAMRALS is another contender in this field . Love Talk (10.00) shows consistency with 3,6,3,3,1,3,3 on his last 7 runs and a decent last 9.72 BAT from a bad 12 draw makes him a worthy roughy to include. Cloud nine is on 2nd run after rest and seems a bit better over 1200 than 1300.
R8: TOUGH FINISH. Samarra (12.00) has a "value" look to it given the best recent 1600 FVP for in the fieldon 2020201 as well as best ORA 36% to W best TCurve 43% to WIN and also best AT and F bit has a draw to overcome luckily a 1600 Ladysmith gets Pacifiers fitted and a43% to Win on (S) tat form and (I)ntent combined with a look of "crying for the 1600 and best ERA, MS with 35% to win and SR% with 35% to win must have a say . Forget'o Girls had a lovely FVP debut and a 2.51 BAT42 to boot far superior to the field and also shows good 1600 KEN form so is a runner but lost V Rensburg injured so not sure if we will get the consistency here. Deep river woman has consistent 1900 FVP form and a very good SR of 99.32 last run that suggests he has enough speed for teh drop in distance. Ginas Girl could be an improver with 2,2,3,1,11 form and then taking the rest his last run can be overlooked and last 2 runs over 1600 FVP was both 2nd's Tawny jet (6.00) has best EDMS a 28.57% chance to win and best BATC so another that could run well here. Cherry Pop (8.00) had a good win last run over 1300 FVP and the 1600 FVP looks decent enough to include but has a bad draw of 14. Flame of Fire (20.00) has decent enough BATS to be considered a decent roughy inclusion at 20/1 but again bat draw
EDITOR BIPOT: 8,1 x 2,1 x 3,2,1 x 2,8,10,7 x 5,6,4,3 x 9,2,3,5
EDITOR PA: 2,1 x 3,2,1 x 2,8,10,7 x 5,6,4 x 9,2,3,5 x 2,4,6,9 x 4,12,6,1
EDITOR P6: 3,2,1,5 x 2,8,10,7 (5,1,12) x 5,6,4,3,1,7,11 x 9,2,3,5,8,1,6 x 2,4,6,9,8,5 x 4,12,6,1,10,2
EDITOR JP1: 2,8,10,7 (5,1,12) x 5,6,4,3,1,7,11 x 9,2,3,5,8,1,6 x 2,4,6,9,8,5
EDITOR JP2: 5,6,4,3,1,7,11 x 9,2,3,5,8,1,6 x 2,4,6,9,8,5 x 4,12,6,1,10,2
EDITOR FVP FIBO: R1: Hollywood Thunder (2.2) x R2: Slavadora (1.75) x R3: JACKPOT JEWEL (2.20) x R4: Jurist (6.00) x R5:MARMARA SEA (2.80) x R6: Travel in Style (9.00) x R7: TWIN FALLS (6.00) x R8: Samarra (12.00)
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