Cape Guineas Replays

Forget what everyone has said about there being no superstars in this 3yr old Male crop. They are all wrong.

We have a MR122 winner of this race. That is a real champion in the making. Yes he couldn't make the bipot in a 6 horse MR82 race the previous start. But that's in the past. Going forward this horse shall conquer SA.

was this horse a122 before the race?

The handicapper has gone with Eden Roc (114) as the line horse, despite the fact that this horse has not reproduced his 2yo ratings in any of his runs this season. The consequence of this choice of line horse, is that we are asked to believe that Silver Operator and King of Gems which both raced from poor draws and were never in with a shout, still ran to their previous best form of 109 despite finishing 7th and 8th beaten 6.5 lengths.
The winner thus goes up 23 lb from 99 to 122, Viva Rio from 108 to 119, Macthief from 106 to 115, Wild Coast from 96 to 114. The 6th place Viking Moon (which on the above assumptions, runs 112 but is given 109), up from 105.
This is excessive, even if we allow for dramatic improvement by the first 4 home.
In the Dingaans, Eden Roc finished just behind Battle of Alesia, a horse rated 108. At his previous run he was beaten 6lb by Frosted Gold (114). At best therefore, I would suggest that he again ran 108 here, and hence the ratings allocated to the top 4 are all 6lb too high. Thus, allocating Eden Roc 108 also fits better with the 6th horse running close to his 105.
The race is tricky to rate, as I have no doubt that the top 4 all ran above their ratings, and the further down the field you go to fit a line horse, the more likely that the horses were easing up late when clearly not in contention for a top 4 finish. However, I would suggest that ratings of 116, 113, 109, 108, 108, 106 for the top 6 make more sense.

Once again I agree with you Peter - I fear that both the Fillies Guineas and the Cape Guineas have been overrated - to the detriment of the commections. To be frank, Eden Roc has either not trained on at all or is just a sprinter or both - in my opinion to use him as the line horse is flawed.

Laughable imo

Off the topic gents..... can I lump on fixed places on Elusive Heart..... I really fancy this one on Boxing Day.......

can only agree. I hope the connections appeal these ratings given to their horses. I think in some instances it might kill their careers.