RATINGS IN THE RACEGOER

Dear Vee (NHA) and Andrew (The Racegoer)

re RACING'S SELF SABOTAGE

On Friday evening I attended a 'rugby braai' , for what was supposed to be 3 hours of rugby , rugby , rugby
However , after an hour of listening to lively discussion on who would win the 4 quarter finals and by how much , a guest approached me and introduced himself with the words "apparently you are a racing expert , so please tell me that you have never seen a bigger certainty than Twist Of Fate at Durbanville tomorrow"
My reply "he's got a chance, but certainty ? Definitely not ! Why are you so certain?"

With that he withdrew a neatly folded copy of THE RACEGOER from his jacket pocket , and in it a wad of tote tickets
"Look at this !" (attached from The Racegoer) he exclaimed " Twist Of Fate is rated 127 , and the next are Charles and Majestic Mozart with only 111 , and a whole bunch from 110 to 94 "

"Oh no , here we go again !"

You know that terrible feeling that you experience when something or someone who you love self destructs in front of you , you always do your best to intervene

So , here we go again . The points that I made to the punter

▪︎none of Twist Of Fate , Charles or Majestic Mozart have run for 3 months , do you see any info that indicates how they have wintered ? No workout or trial reports

▪︎are you aware that Charles has been gelded and is rumored to have improved ?

▪︎are you aware that Twist Of Fate only beat Majestic Mozart by 3 lengths (6lb) in the Cape Guineas and is conceding him 6,6 lb in this race ?

▪︎are you aware that Twist Of Fate beat Charles 4,15 lengths (8lb) in the KZN Guineas and now concedes him 6,6 lb ?

▪︎have you considered that Twist Of Fate is meeting some smart older horses on 8 to 12 lb worse terms than WFA , and they have good current form and are specialists over this 1400 ?

▪︎are you aware that these numbers that you think are ratings are nothing but RACE FIGURES , calculated in accordance with mechanistic , linear rules ?

"NEVER IN A MONTH OF SUNDAYS CAN A WFA MERIT ASSESSMENT PLACE TWIST OF FATE 16 lb (8 lengths at 1600m) AHEAD OF CHARLES WHO WAS NARROWLY BEATEN IN THE CAPE DERBY"

The startled punter : " how would you rate them on 3YO form ?"
My answer

Twist Of Fate 129
Charles 122+
and we have no idea how much the gelding has improved Charles

The punter: "but none of this is in The Racegoer so we can only guess? "
"Yes , you the customer are invited to guess "
"For your sake I would like Twist Of Fate to win"
Punter " I hope so , I have bankered him in my PA , Jackpot and Pick 6 "

THE OPERATOR , THE BUSINESS INVITOR , IS INVITING THE INVITEE , THE PUNTER , TO GUESS IN WHAT IS PORTRAYED AS CALCULATED SPECULATION (mindgame)

Please Vee and Andrew , this is in breach of the CONSUMER PROTECTION ACT and is the main root cause of our crisis today

Under 61 kg Twist Of Fate ran a tremendously game race , he always does , to run 4th in what was no more than a Trial-with-betting

Charles ran wide under 58 kg and sauntered home , a vastly improved horse as a gelding (see attached)

And the the punter , a disenfranchised , tolerated nuisance who

accepted the invitation to guess and lost his money

AND RACING'S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DROPPED FURTHER

as SAF Racing's crisis deepens amidst all the causality manipulation

I met with the punter and some of his friends last night to explain MERIT RATINGS to them , and explained the concept of TRIALS to them and gave them an article about how they were invented in America 60 years ago


" Oh , we thought because we can't afford to own horses we aren't entitled to know all that"
( post race salt in the wound attached)

IN TERMS OF THE CONSUMER PROTECTION ACT THE CUSTOMER HAS A RIGHT TO KNOW

PLEASE
Vee and Andrew , put a warning on EVERY PAGE OF EVERY COPY OF
'THE RACEGOER' THAT THE NUMBERS PUBLISHED ARE

RACE FIGURES ! NOT RATINGS !
Our failure to build a powerful connection between the Stud and Form Books , and ALL PRICE SENSITIVE INFO , and the general public , is the reason for the disintegration of public interest and betting support

Yours sincerely

Charles Faull

Valid points raised and I agree with most of them - but I don't have that much sympathy for the 'punter' - all the info as stated is available to EVERYONE (well apart from the rumor that Charles has improved after gelding)

I agree that some publications are not worth the paper they are written on, but is it really Vee's problem that everyone and his dog just follow the ratings blindly ?

Should the 'punter' not take some responsibility to study the 'form' (and form includes weight carried and draws in most cases) ?

Yes, imo we do need a platform where races are dissected in detail - not the usual hogwash about 'this stable has a strike rate of 5% and this jockey is so hard-working and has a strike rate of 7%' - just not sure whose responsibility it is to provide such a platform in a world where racing is declining

Charles aim has always been to attract new punters and to wish info was explained better to all punters

Bob Brogan wrote: Charles aim has always been to attract new punters and to wish info was explained better to all punters

I'm all for that - the question is 'how' - if someone were to take up the challenge it would have to be a labor of love, as the market interested in such a 'platform' is too small to allow a venture like that to be viable - just my opinion of course

As an example, Formgrids as a tool was great, but to really have an effect imo one also needed an extension to the 'tool' - an 'advisory' platform interpreting the 'form' - so who would be willing to fund such a platform in this day and age where we are dealing with a shrinking market ?