Lerena must be the value, because the Highveld has on average three meetings a week, KZN two a week. He rides for the stronger stables on the Highveld, maybe with less regularity for the Tarry yard, but can make up for lost time in a matter of weeks. If push came to shove later in the piece, he would travel to PE and pick up rides.
If he truly wants it, he would travel as much as (say) Kennedy or Yeni, and win in a canter.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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