Calling Garrick!

Any chance of another write up of then next 'big race' please.

Your insight was most helpful in focusing me on the winner - cheers, Jim

;-0

I 2nd that. Pls write up preview of the weekend.

Well done Jim ( Jamster ) on 'finding' a winning favourite. I'll almost certainly sound off in the next big race whilst once again rubbishing the favourites. The beauty of doing it that way is that I am going to be right 65% percent of the time which ( sadly! ) might fool some into believing I am skilled.......

I pay very little attention to South African racing these days as I find it curiously boring. I much prefer the highly entertaining UK stuff where they seem to have a better understanding that the purpose of a race is to actually gallop for the full distance.Apart from which they do not habitually revert to the 'odds on' option unless it is truly MERITED.

Sports betting opened my eyes to the fundamentally unacceptably high risk elements associated in backing horses to make proper money. To prove my point I took 50k-100k on NZ last Saturday with only three possible outcomes - win lose or draw. In the Gold Cup I started off with a multitude of competitors and an unquantifiable number of scenarios which could have beaten both me ( and you ).

Furthermore one often learns after the event that 'marked cards' were in play when a horse drifts or shortens in contrast to its recorded form. I prefer knowing that 'x' is playing or 'y' is injured before they run onto the field.

Nevertheless, like a rehabilitated addict, the attraction remains and I sometimes find myself having a punt ( mostly unsuccessfully ) after which I have to remind myself to leave the horses to you guys.

fair play to ya garrick 1/2 the win and draw - I#m impressed mate.

This is not intended to sound like an advert, Catsmug, but I have had an extremely cordial relationship with Sedley Barr for many years.

The rules are pretty simple - unless we have made other arrangements (sometimes we only settle at the end of a tournament eg World Cup) we square up weekly without variation. This is pretty essential as he will have takebacks etc., to settle and needs to be able to count on me to settle if the 'play' is large. 'Cheque is in the mail' is not going to work. The exception tends to be where either of us owe less than R10k - in which case we would carry over.

Sedley will generally accomodate a fairly large strike AT THE ODDS once you have established a relationship over time. In my experience up to about R2 million in doubles/trebles ENDING on large events such as the July, Met, World Cup etc., - providing you are not 'getting on' with the whole world and coming to him last. I bet only with Sedley and will only spill the beans to other interested parties after an appropriately polite period of time so as not to ruin his chances of taking back. To be frank - he tells me that it is often impossible to take back anything close to what he would like to.

Unlike many others I do not see my relationship with my bookmaker as one of conflict - rather he is a facilitator from which I EXPECT him to earn. Bookmakers are more often victims of sharp practise than beneficiaries although they almost always benefit from whatever 'oopsies' occur in the race itself.

My major beef with the satchel carriers surrounds the percentages which they continue to bet to - I think the Gold Cup ante post hovered around the 140%+ mark which certainly discouraged me from wagering any more than the R800 odd which I eventually blew on Long Dollar. Had I not been asleep during the week I would probably have taken R30,000 - R 9,900 Omaha Beach the place and closed my book.

Interestingly many bookmakers feel that the 108% that they generally bet to in sport is a basis for a stronger business than the ( supposed ) 120% in racing.

The best aspect of my relationship with this bookmaker is that I can 'get on'. The monkey is on his back to 'take back'. So those who are obssessed with the 'stretch ' might sometimes end up as frustrated observers for the sake of a 'point' in the betting.

In summary it is about a relationship where both parties can count on the other to conduct themselves in an ethical manner.

Good posts chaps, very informative.

txs

Catsmug,

Bookmaking appears to be a curious mixture of mechanics and intuition. I briefly held a right ( for 'fun' purposes ) in 1992 and found myself disadvantaged for a number of reasons ;

1.) There is no training available - traditionally you pick up your skills by clerking and then set sail with more hope than talent.

2.) At that time I was painfully ignorant of pricing and percentages. No more.

Further complicating the South African market are the following and, in saying this, I do not expect that the profession necessarily deserves any sympathy :

1.) Many ( most? ) local bookmakers are hopelessly undercapitalised and, therefore, try and set themselves up as 'trading' operations by 'selling' bets at one price whilst 'taking back' at a better price whilst 'standing' nothing. Certainly 'making a book' is quite foreign in this country.

2.) The inability of a bookmaker to 'make a book' could be ascribed to a number of issues :

a. Most bookmakers only wish to lay favourites. On sites such as Interbet (where you can often get a better 'feel' for bookmaker thinking) they sometimes do not even offer the ruling ( or any ) price on outsiders!

b. Don't be fooled - the South African market is relatively 'thin' with not much demand outside of the 'buzzers'. ( 'Roughie' betting seems to be largely soaked up by the tote via exotics ).

c. In my opinion - because bookmakers often price up quite inaccurately there is quite a lot of betting movement up until the 'off'. Comparatively in the UK there is not nearly as much movement as the pricing tends to be more accurate AND because they have a far truer market with almost every horse being backed.

( How often, for example, do you see odds on favourites in the UK ? Even when there are only a handful of runners you are more likely to see odds against than odds on ).

3.) The South African market has also developed some nasty habits -

Because pricing is often such poor value for money the so-called stretch has become ingrained. Bookmakers now bleat incessantly about this but should remember that they started the practise when it was very convenient to exploit the ignorance of the unskilled punter whilst offering a more realistic price to favoured clients.

Punters here also tend to be unduly influenced by market movements. Bookmakers learned long ago that no movement = no revenue inflow. Consequently our betting markets often look like my last ECG.

They also seem to adopt a 'be the first to panic and shorten' approach to betting. This is, I feel, largely due to undercapitalisation.

What they have very succesfully trained punters into accepting is an almost endless succession of unwarranted odds on favourites. I am particularly scornful and critical of this practise for the following reasons :

a. The percentage of winning favourites in SA in ABSOLUTELY no different from elsewhere in the world at about 35%.

b. Despite this proliferation of short priced favourites they still get away with failing to offer other runners at appropriate prices. How often do you watch replays and see that all four of the top choices in the betting have shortened whilst one lone 20/1 is now very generously offered at 25/1?

Inasmuch as I subscribe to 'free enterprise' the failure of the Gambling Board to censure and/or fine offenders is disappointing. Let's face it - bookmaking is not really a 'free market' system - It is restricted to licensed operators who themselves initially price up and thereafter react to demand. As they are licensed why does the regulator not intervene when they over price their product?

Now I hear bookmakers react - Well you don't have to have a bet. Which is precisely what a large portion of former punters have chosen to do, schmucks!

Instead punters ( and here I include myself ) have migrated to sports betting where the market is far more accurate. And the chances of turning a consistent profit far greater.

Gripping stuff Garrick.

I would like to share my experience, I also was a cream cookie for 2 years. best 2 years of my life as far as working hours, but financially a disaster.

I have been a punter since 15 and want a licence to "print money", "drive a Merc", "have you ever seen a poor bookie" etc,

Well yes I did see poor bookies at the rooms in Bosman street and it these days they were going out like lights, in fact you had to listen to the rumours "who were under pressure" to be careful on the "settling" Monday/Tuesday.

You hit the nail on the head Garrick, we [the smaller bookies] never had a "book" so percentages were never a factor, you could lay the fav for an even 10 grand and have no other bets or demand for the rest of the field, so in a way you were betting to 100%.

The trouble is that lets assume all the favs were 15/10 on a race day, the phone would ring from Joburg bookies "write a ticket" so you could lay as much as you want, the horse would go evens and win.
Next race no call, horse would go 3/1 and run unplaced, so end of the day the "hotties" arrived it became hard to manage, as you had to lay something as a bookie, to cover your overheads and in these days you needed ??R25,000/month to cover your expenses, before you could start earning a living.

The other negatives, were the guys that "fall-in" over the weekend and have exceeded their financial limits and have to make plans with post dated cheques, some never to be seen again, and remember you may have taken back, so you had to find the money to settle the bookies on Monday.

The "cash" on the floor was also a rare commodity, but was not all bad, the day the disqualification in the July, where Space Walk was given the race, I went home with the cash and put in an entertainment area c/w swimming pool.

However life goes on and its a wonderful game, which ever side of the fence you are on.

So good punting/laying

scotia

Morning Garrick,

The tri-nations is nicely set,what you reckon?

Hi Warren,

On paper South Africa should win it but, as you know, they don't play on paper. I cannot see much scope for many more punts on the Tri-Nations this year as I tend to back South African teams very rarely (or with extreme caution) as they so often flatter only to deceive.

Unfortunately I will have two die hard Springbok supporting guests with me at Newlands next week so I prefer not to be 'involved' under such circumstances. My heart will certainly be with our boys but playing with 'the heart' is a fairly quick route to the poorhouse.

My rugby form study throws up one particularly significant trend which should serve as a warning to SA. Very few sides ever manage to put together three successive top class performances without a week off in between. The Boks may well rue the fill-in fixture against Argentina followed by no less than 3 very tough assignments against two sides that, on any given day, are good enough ( and smart enough! ) to beat us.

Nevertheless the margins of our two defeats away from home suggest that we are well capable ( assuming no stupid selections ) of landing our third Tri-Nations.

On that basis I suppose we should all be feasting on the 15/10 available on SA outright. But God help us if it rains at Newlands next week! What price SA if we get over that hurdle ? 5/10? 1/3? Could be a good trading opportunity!

Thanks,

Won't be doing anything myself,but I just wondering how you think it will pan out.

I had a good super 14,the rewards of which I have swung onto as I don't usually punt on sport,so I am biding my time waiting for what I perceive as an opportunity.Hopefully one comes up soon as I have itchy fingers,but sport is not my forte so I was just trying to pick your brains.I don't like to punt SA teams @ the best of times,so I think I'll be like your die-hard mates and simply shout for them.

Play well!

Although not a India cricket fan I fancy the 5/2 on offer for the 3rd test.