Santa Clara looks like she will appreciate the step up in trip despite a fairly wide draw in a 7 horse field. The stable has three runners in the field, hope one ensures a decent pace.
Brave Move is facing her stiffest task to date, however she has improved despite her rise in the ratings which she has handled comfortably. A slow run race won't hurt her chances, as she appears to race fairly handy and can quicken. The winter course with the short run-in may suit her style of racing.
Spring Man, if seeing out the extra, will go close in the Winter Derby. On his Cape Derby run earlier in the year, he stayed on from an extremely wide draw, tomorrow from draw 2 and ridden with some restraint, I expect he will get the 2400m.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bob Brogan, 20 to 1, TNaicker
It has rained steadily over the past two days, and the going will be heavy. The reported rainfall at Kenilworth on sahorseracing.co.za is only 4mm past 24hours and 14mm past 7 days, but I find it very hard to believe that they had so little. The pen reading is given as 28. On Tuesday they told us 22 which was nonsense. The rain has finished, and hopefully we will get through the day without jockey protests.
Race 1: Winter Five looks the best of the 2 year olds, but Celestial Storm andCrowded House also fair form. Mumtaz decent debut and has more scope for improvement. In this going the 3 year olds may have the edge.
Race 2: A New Dawn scratched so throws this race open. The old campaigner Friendly Tibbs is racing fit and handles the going so he is my selection. A couple returning from long breaks. There should be a reasonable pace with a Red Peril in the race. Mac de Lago is a threat if he jumps on terms and Waiting for Rain could place.
Race 3: The first three from the Fillies Nursery line up, and the winner of that race, Coral Bay is bred for the extra and is the one to beat- she only carries 1 kg penalty for that win. I’m surprised she is not outright favourite. Domeyer has jumped from Nous Voila to Santa Clara.
Helen’s Ideal won very easily on debut and she has come on from that run. She is less experienced than the 3 mentioned, but we think that she is a smart filly and bred for a trip so we are hoping that she is good enough to win here. Unfortunately we have been given a wide draw this time around, and the two week delay may prove more beneficial to the Nursery runners.
Race 4: One World has looked very impressive both wins, and despite the 2kg penalty is the one to beat. Frank Lloyd Wright has a nice pull at the weights and should challenge. Mr Crumford has a wide draw but solid form and should like the trip. Charles is the wild card- he won well on debut and should relish the trip.
Race 5: Brave Move has cruised through the divisions and could land this one. Call to Account steps up in trip, and if she sees it out is a runner. Cape Charlotte ran a super race last time to chase Fresnaye home, and if that form can be taken at face value she should go close. Platinum Class and Captains Flame are also in the mix. Expedite steps up in class but could surprise under bottom weight. Lady of the House returns from a break but is capable if fit.
Race 6: Fresnaye should win this at restrictive odds. Into the Limelight and Dynasty’s Blossom are the dangers. Talitha Borealis and East Lynne are improving and should enjoy the trip.
Race 7: Most are unproven over the trip so this race is quite open. Spring Man and Love Happens appeal on breeding over Doublemint and Ancestry. Rock my Soul has won this trip.
Race 8: An open race. Marshall has a strong hand with his three runners. I liked the improvement shown by Magic Mary last time.
Race 9: Another open handicap.
The following user(s) said Thank You: KitKat, jimbo
Very Nice racing here today, Mr Crumford worth a place....Wanning Crescent a big danger....Pearl Jam worth an each way at the price...Magic Mary....Dalibungha
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