Cape Guineas Day Replays

Txs Bob

Cape Guineas- Congratulations to owner -breeder A Foster - now well clear on the breeders log by AEPR, trainer V Marshall, now record holder for most Cape Guineas winners, and jockey MJ Byleveld for a superb ride from the worst draw.
How do we rate these 3yos? The official MRs look far too low unless this is a truly substandard crop, which I doubt. There is very little collateral form against older horses, but the one race that we can use is Tap O Noth run against Our Mate Art on 20/9/17, when beaten a length at level weights when 5.5kg out at WFA. Our Mate Art is now 103, so arguably, TON could be MR 112! This is a far cry from his official 99 going into this race. If we use Wonderwall as the line horse (107) then we get
Tap O Noth 112
White River 111
Like A Panther 109
Cot Campbell 108
Wonderwall 107
Pack Leader 106
This would be more consistent with the kind of ratings that our GR1 runners typically achieve.
The lesson for me is that any of the leading 3yos that run in handicaps should be hard to beat off their official ratings.

Premiers Trophy
We all love front runners that don’t stop and a well deserved Gr2 for veteran owner/trainer Billy Prestage and the gutsy Milton, well ridden by G Lerena.
Last Winter was disappointing on the day, and did not show the expected improvement- in fact he ran below his previous effort. The pack was too far back, and although LW only failed by a nostril and a stride past the post was clear, this is not a ride that champion jockey Delpech will be proud of.
Rating this race is difficult- if Milton ran to his rating of 101 then the second and third horses ran well below their 106 and 107. If LW ran to his 106, then Milton improved to 107, which is 4 above his career best. It is more likely that Milton ran to his previous 103, in which case LW ran just 102 and Krambambuli 99.

Victress Stakes
Star Express returned to her best form and won a nice race also from a tough draw. Premier Dance showed good improvement in second. Nightingale is on track for a bold showing in the Paddock Stakes where she will have the beating of all of these at level weights. Using Nightingale as the line horse ( which may be a bit generous as she may not have been 100% fit here) we get
Star Express 102
Premier Dance 99
Nightingale 105
Goodtime Gal 100
Silver Thursday 97
Seattle Gold 96
Dynamic Diana 96

Would love to hear Delpech's explanation for LW's run. I hope he wins a race a Scottsville today.

I can only imagine the disappointment of the connections. To lose his win record in that manner. Clearly, the best horse came second.