Turffontein Thursday night

bayern wrote:

Sammy Silver wrote: Kissable could be the joker in Race 4.

If she comes back to her best she will blow this field away.

Being a 3 year old, do you not think she is badly weighted in terms of the race conditions?

yes she is based on the MR but what if ET is a 99 and Kissable a 83 that means she should be receiving 16lbs but she's only receiving 12lbs, however the 83 was earned in January which means she could improve and she has a better draw....4lbs is only a length in a sprint....and you get 6.5/1 instead of 11/10, i think the risk is worth it....

The last race should be exciting, i make it a match race between Last Girl Standing and Madam Secretary. They are weighted to dead heat, they have good draws, C/D form and have capable riders....and currently both priced 11/2....

keniza999 wrote:

bayern wrote:

Sammy Silver wrote: Kissable could be the joker in Race 4.

If she comes back to her best she will blow this field away.

Being a 3 year old, do you not think she is badly weighted in terms of the race conditions?

yes she is based on the MR but what if ET is a 99 and Kissable a 83 that means she should be receiving 16lbs but she's only receiving 12lbs, however the 83 was earned in January which means she could improve and she has a better draw....4lbs is only a length in a sprint....and you get 6.5/1 instead of 11/10, i think the risk is worth it....

You can make the "what if" scenario anything you want, you must still factor in the wfa allowance which is 5.0kgs. So even using your numbers, Kissable should get 13.0kgs from Exquisite Touch which makes Kissable worse off than actually is. On the official ratings, Kissable should be receiving 11.5kgs from Exquisite Touch, any which way one looks at it Kissable is badly weighted. What I always say, follow your instinct/gut feeling because this is not an exact science - break a leg.

The two I fancy on the card, in order of preference :-

R4, Exquisite Touch, oddly enough when Shrek said the horse opened 2/1 the other day, i was disappointed thinking that price cannot last long, so when the market opens today, Exquisite Touch will open 12/10 - 1/1 money, like he predicted. You can imagine the joy at seeing 2/1 earlier today. See the horse is 9/10 and no deductions, three scratching later. Over the moon, just needs to arrive tomorrow.

R6, Liege, I think is a massive runner off that weight and from that draw. Repeats the Summer Cup run, no race.

bayern wrote:

keniza999 wrote:

bayern wrote:

Sammy Silver wrote: Kissable could be the joker in Race 4.

If she comes back to her best she will blow this field away.

Being a 3 year old, do you not think she is badly weighted in terms of the race conditions?

yes she is based on the MR but what if ET is a 99 and Kissable a 83 that means she should be receiving 16lbs but she's only receiving 12lbs, however the 83 was earned in January which means she could improve and she has a better draw....4lbs is only a length in a sprint....and you get 6.5/1 instead of 11/10, i think the risk is worth it....

You can make the "what if" scenario anything you want, you must still factor in the wfa allowance which is 5.0kgs. So even using your numbers, Kissable should get 13.0kgs from Exquisite Touch which makes Kissable worse off than actually is. On the official ratings, Kissable should be receiving 11.5kgs from Exquisite Touch, any which way one looks at it Kissable is badly weighted. What I always say, follow your instinct/gut feeling because this is not an exact science - break a leg.

She is the best rated but will have to be at her best

4 of them ran on the same day 03/11
one race won by ET and Movie Show third 4kg and 1,65 then
the other by Daring Diva 0,95 sec off that time DD carried 4kgs more but Kissable was 3/10 and not striding out

there is a recent interaction between MS and DD

12 - Girl on The Run 13/2 Huge Price

EXQUISITE TOUCH for the Gardenia (There is still 16/10 with Lance Michael for small punters)
Or how about an exacta with MOGGIE BROWN for the hard-hearted?

Why shouldn't BULL VALLEY win?

Exciting racing under the lights - some races much closer than the betting suggests imo - lets hope those thunder showers only arrive after the last

R1: Three first timers at the top of the boards - none are drawn that great though - I am including Katara Queen in the BP - fair last run after a break and a least has the draw in her favor

R2: Volcanic Sunset stands out on form and should take a power of beating imo; Red Indy and Tumbling Stream for the exacta and obviously Full of Attitude despite a poor draw can't be ignored for the places

R3: Talktothestars a stand-out at the weights imo - Legal Eagle has never won over the sprints. Bull Valley likely to need it slightly, while Champagne Haze looks held by T; lack of betting support for Naafer suggests he is using this as a prep; so biggest danger to T imo is Captain Aldo

R4: Exquisite Touch looks another stand-out - however the trainer cautions that she could be her own worst enemy - if she were to misbehave, this could turn out to be competitive; Queen Laurie has often run close to Wrecking Ball, who was considered the main danger to ET, so obvious contender; Kissable obviously needs to recapture the form of her first two runs - if she does she could lead them a merry dance; Daring Diva another who could benefit should ET fails; Moggie Brown very impressive in her maiden win (form franked byJazaalah) and could run into the first four at these weights

R5: This could result in another turn-up for the books - Nother Russia definitely will find this on the short side and also said to be only 75% ready; Secret Star closest to NR at the weights, but no guarantee that she gets the trip; Safe Harbour like NR prefers further and is also said to be prepping; so any of the others can pop up in a race where pace could be an issue as well

R6: I agree with many on here that Girl on the Run has a lot going for her and she is my clear first choice at these weights; Master Switch much better than recent form and will be racing without blinkers again - must be considered with Striker taking the ride; Fort Ember next in line for me, but most of the others look to have some sort of chance

R7: Competitive handicap; safest options for the PA imo would be Starrett City and Silver Peg; Shenanigans gives the impression that he prefers further, but obviously can't be ignored; roughie for me is Front Rank who had some problems in his last two starts, but comes right into this on his run behind Amazing Strike

R8: Very tough race to close; safest options for the PA for me is Sun Sentinel, Madam Secretary and Last Girl Standing, while the Marcus fans would lean towards High Seas Beauty; I'm definitely giving Twelve Oaks a chance as well and La Bella Mia could also upset - another race where most have some sort of chance

Enjoy

Race 1
7 Go Fuggi
13 San Fermin
15 Sunshine Silk
10 La Linea
Race2
4 Volcanic Sunset
8 Tumbling Stream
10 D Arrivee
Race 3
4 Talktothestars !
2 Bull Valley
Race 4
3 Queen Laurie !
7 Daring Diva
1 Exquisite Touch
Race 5
1 Nother Russia
3 Safe Harbour
Race 6
8 Arctica !
12 Girl On The Run
4 Liege
Race 7
7 El Maestro !!
9 Shenanigans
Race 8
9 Last Girl Standing
10 Awaafy
16 Claret Cup
7 Madam Secretary

So werk hy maar...............

R1 One of the first timers, respect for the money for Gavin's mount. Lady burn makes a return and was a hottie on debut, so clearly has problems and may be over them?

R2 Agree Volcanic sunset looks a standout on form. Drop in trip for me is a slight concern in which case il add a couple others for the pa. On the shortlist will be Red Indy and one big outsider Party spirit who's debut I was impressed with from a tricky draw.

R3 The King makes his return and only thing yet to achieve besides the July would be a win over the sprint trip. 6/1 into 3's at a time suggests he should be ready, Captain Aldo the value for the places.

R4 Agree re Exquisite touch banker for me.

R5 Imo Nother Russia at 75% is good enough to win. All the others in the field have question marks over them too and thus il chance NR being good enough.

R6 One of my favorite horses who I still think has huge improvement still to come is Orchid Island. (Double with NR above) At the weights with Aba she's well in here although maybe being out a bit with the likes of Liege. Again I'm willing to take a chance that she's ready and this will be a great opener to a few big wins this season. Girl on the run drop in trip a concern and Fort Ember bring decent cover to the fairer sex taking this one.

R7 Tricky contest where Starett city does make appeal. I will however include the plummeting El Maestro and agree with Frodo re Front Rank being a lurker.

R8 If you standing in the pick 6 by this time, one could only have confidence with the field. The St John gray coupling of Twelve oaks as well as Last girl standing make appeal along with Secret vision.

Tricky but nice to see the quality horses coming back, so play with caution and play well.