Durbanville on Wednesday 25/10/2017

As usual my dicy mid week fancies:

Race 1: Refined Bachelor
Race 2: Rikers Island
Race 3: Quickfire/Mount Keith
Race 4 : Straat-Kind
Race 5 : Wine Festival
Race 6 : Silver De Lange
Race 7 : Cape Laddie - Stebbins Danger
Race 8 : Imperial Chestnut

As usual my dicy mid week fancies:

Top bets
Race 1: Refined Bachelor
Race 2: Rikers Island
Race 3: Silver coin
Race 4 : Straat-Kind
Race 5 : Wine Festival
Race 6 : Silver De Lange
Race 7 : Waiting for Rain
Race 8 : Imperial Chestnu

Danger bets
Race 1: Bernie
Race 2: Talk of the town
Race 3: Big Mistake
Race 4 : Sun at Midnight
Race 5 : Esteemal
Race 6 :Paddington
Race 7 : Our Emperor


Longshots E/w
Race 1: Spring Man
Race 2: Teutonic Knight
Race 3: Mount Keith
Race 4 : Silver Willow
Race 5 : Namibia
Race 6 : bluedoor
Race 7 : Stebbins Danger
Race 8 : Chestnuts Charm

Nice competitive and Interesting card -

Good to see Ramsden starting to step out some of his stock.

Race 1 - Northern Storm from Bernie - Xanthus returns from a rest could improve - Red Mars backed in both outings will enjoy the extra but needs to improve plenty to threaten top two - Wemibono had a 22.8 final 400 to finish in debut . Quartet could pay a bomb as a bit more open than at first glance.

Race 2 - Talk of the town obvious horse to beat but also open race - Some nicely bred horses and improvement expected from RIKERS ISLAND and DOUBLEMINT. Interesting runner L’ HISTOIRE backed in Debut , ran on nicely , coming back from a rest but I am expecting him to be right there . The two First Timers should not be discounted THE RIVER GREEN and TSITSIKAMMA DANCE for back end of quartet.

Race 3 - The return of the R 6 Million horse SILVER COIN in an open race - Could make a case for the field so will be going wide if not field. VIKING VOYAGE at 8/1 looks good eachway.

Race 4 - My banker for the day ESSENCEOFLIFE was very unlucky last time , in good form and will be hard to beat with Claimer.

Race 5 - 65 MR Handicap - Another open race - Going to include CELTIC CHARM Jockey Strike Fourie has ridden her 3 times fro a win and a second - Including OAKLEY COURT on the run to Undercover Boss - WINE FESTIVAL dropped slightly in the ratings and been running not to far behind so with this rating should be competitive - AMAZINGLY same as Wine Festive droped in rating Jockey Trainer combination has been pretty good so need to include. ESTEEMAL running off a MR 74 which I think is below where it should be , badly drawn might need the run after winning its maiden at Scotsville at 6/10 after opening at 3/10 by 0.5 lengths .

Race 6 - Another open race - So I will go with the field or as many as I can - 2400m in Cape Town who knows where the pace is going to come from if any so rather safe than sorry . If I was pushed to have a bet I think SOARING PAST at 14/1 with a low weight for places .

Race 7 - Just two horses for me . I think The Slade is above average just a bit concerned with the rest so going to include OUR EMPEROR . These are two class horses with bigger fish to fry .

Race 8 - Not a great race to close the meeting DESTINY DUCHESS bad draw - ONE MORE ROUND - in good form so will include - SYDNEY OPERA no form but blinkers on and Fayd’Herbe up - DUNTOCHE good form bad draw - IMPERIAL CHESTNUT could be the one to beat in good form normally finishes like a bomb - CHESTNUT’S CHARM drawn at 13 but also finishes well - MARCH AFFAIR Domeyer up seems to be enjoying step up in distance , big runner - CHINKAPIN bad draw as well but will like this distance , will improve - Very open race with many unkowns so will be going as wide as possible .

Race 1

imo Bernie hasn't beaten much and his comparative times does not make him a 5/2 shot

November Storm has been a favourite with the bookies and that trend could continue here.There is sufficient proof of that in the form of his first run ahead of Sark and using Dayonaut as a yardstick

I can't find much to support Refined Bachelor as the likely winner either !

The two with the best times are Shadow Warrior and Xanthus.Shadow Warrior has excellent form bar his last but he had to ease off a few in that race.A poor draw to overcome but not insurmountable

Xanthus has claims for best form but has been gelded and comes off a break.Top jockey here!

Trying dbl Bernie X Imperial Chestnut 20-1- Backing both and bankering exacta X field

I see RAMSDEN has stopped commenting on the 'pre-race' section of his web pag(Howells too) Its a pity as it was very informative when puzzling my bets(p6 etc)

R8 Very similar form for most of the runners;distance to Fresnaye,bunched up to Woodstock Fairy,Cha Cha Chorizo ,Super Sparkle,Empire Rising etc so theres two ways to look at the race

Taking the unconventional route leads you to Mr Ramsden's very well bred Sydney Opera with Bernie in the irons.Her sibling report makes for good reading...

SPECIAL CAUSEWAY (AUS) [2003] - GIANT'S CAUSEWAY (USA)
4w-3p-25s $22,500
Race: 900-1600m Won: 1200-1600m Wet: 1w-1p-2s

HUSSTA LA VISTA (AUS) [2004] - HUSSONET (USA)
4w-5p-16s $164,600
Race: 1000-1600m Won: 1110-1400m Wet: 3w-1p-5s
G2 0w-0p-1s, LR 0w-0p-1s

APHID (AUS) [2005] - ANABAA (USA)
1w-2p-9s $18,300
Race: 1200-1600m Won: 1400-1400m Wet: 1w-0p-2s

NEVZLIN (AUS) [2006] - DEHERE (USA)
10w-20p-72s $211,700
Race: 900-2100m Won: 1100-1600m Wet: 2w-2p-10s
LR 0w-0p-1s

MY MAN OF WAR (AUS) [2007] - GENERAL NEDIYM (AUS)
8w-16p-58s $176,900
Race: 900-1800m Won: 1150-1600m

FOREVER GENKI (AUS) [2010] - FLYING SPUR (AUS)
0w-0p-13s
Race: 1000-1650m Won: 0-0m

EXCELLENT ROSE (AUS) [2011] - EXCEED AND EXCEL (AUS)
1w-1p-14s $12,500
Race: 1000-1406m Won: 1000-1000m

Some light rain at the course this morning. Nothing serious. Perfect for the horses

The rain is coming down a bit harder now......not complaining as we need it desperately here. If it carries on....it might affect the going

7 Siding with The Slade appears classier

6 For me it's between Paddington,Juddering Angel and Cardiff Castle and leaning to the latter over this extra 400m.Nice weight