WHAT'S YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF VALUE?

there are some wonderful views on this topic but none better than what Easy used of the analogy with the roulette wheel.
people get really confused with value vs winning
let's use this simple scenario of sports betting.
1st choose your bookies
by that I mean % they are laying
I play in running all the time..i can't have a bookie that is laying 8/10 the pair..thats thievery..there is no value even if I backed the winner.
today in the Sri Lanka vs Pakistan game Marshalls were laying 91% on average in the game whilst wsb were continuously around the 95 %
now I am trading in this game ...just to put it in perspective if if I backed Pakistan at a price, I would need Pakistan to score 20 more runs without losing a wicket in good time to be able to back Sri Lanka to make a 10 % profit in the game with Wsb whereas I would have to wait for Pakistan to make 30 runs in the same space of
time to get that 10% profit with Marshalls
now where is the value with who I punt
professional punters will seek value of betting with multiple sites for the same market.
so value is often an individual matter of what it's measured against.
like deeno says 3/10 beats the banks that's his way of measuring
I measure value using multiple bookies for the same market and make a profit with the minimum of risks and that's the key to value...risk vs returns

country member and I posted at the same time and it is nearly 1 and the sane view

mydada wrote: lets put up R4 Vaal betting

Surcharge 7/2 15/20
Keanan`s Rock 4/1 9/10
Sir David Baird 4/1 9/10
Tokyo Drift 6/1 33/25
Blackball 8/1 44/25
Bold Coast 9/1 99/50
Lucky Man 11/1 121/50
Twice A Dancer 11/1 121/50
Chepardo 14/1 31/10
Golden Man 16/1 88/25
Rambo25/1 11/2

we have posted our theories on value so why not combine our analysing and the quest for value in this practical.
It's an interesting race but tbh not expecting any positive feedback although any would be really great

nb ;let's stay away from making comments regarding percentages (if its an issue in this eg)

I seldom bet weekdays but what a lovely race to choose
I'll put my proverbial on the block - so here goes:

One can argue that BLACKBALL has the biggest perceived value but SURCHARGE not only has perceived value too but has the greater probability. All other things being equal I think I will flutter SURCHARE tomorrow.

I understand your point, but effectively punting value and losing is a more gambler approach.

My point is more to the fact that if i choose horse A in race 1 that I believe is going to win, it makes no difference if the price is even money or 10/1. My punt doesn't change. If in same scenario horse A is even money and Horse B who i think has a chance but I much prefer horse A and it is priced up at 10/1, surely I am doing myself a disservice punting a horse B purely for value.

Hope that makes sense.

Richie77 wrote: I understand your point, but effectively punting value and losing is a more gambler approach.

My point is more to the fact that if i choose horse A in race 1 that I believe is going to win, it makes no difference if the price is even money or 10/1. My punt doesn't change. If in same scenario horse A is even money and Horse B who i think has a chance but I much prefer horse A and it is priced up at 10/1, surely I am doing myself a disservice punting a horse B purely for value.

Hope that makes sense.

Richie, there's 2 issues here: one is a gambling strategy, and one is finding value. I agree, backing a horse just because it offers (to you) value may not be the best strategy for most. Nirvana is if you really fancy a horse/bet AND it offers you value.

If I don’t get the perceived value of 3/1+ on Surcharge (my highest rated) then there will not be a bet despite some others showing “value”.


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This morning with HWB Surcharge was 3/1 (7/2 last night). Now I see he’s 2/1. Damn, may have lost the “value”.


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Have requested 3/1 with Interbet. We’ll see.


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Bet not accepted


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ouch Mac

Mac wrote: Bet not accepted


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That's what happens when one looks for "value"...... :woohoo:

It sounded like an easy win. Ugh, but there will be many more that will not win in the future. Value is also abt the longer term. Anyway, he sounds like a good horse.


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