Flamingo Park Monday 15th

Discuss the card below

Lovely card

All to win
MATHS MAJOR
RUSSIAN SAINT
RED SPECIAL
HEART FLOWER

All to plc
GREEN BOEGATTI
HIGH MAINTENANCE
RAVING JEWEL
AUTUMN ENCORE

Playing for fun and hoping... some very speculative, tenuous, etc possibles. They may all come in beaten 50l plus or, just maybe...

R1 Songoffireandice is a fair price imo but will concentrate on two nutterish e/w's.

My main interest is in Bulle Bakkies, have no clue about the appie, which is obviously something of a concern, but at 20s plus BB is worth a look imo. Reportedly not striding lto but should nevertheless be fitter for that outing, back in trip, beat Duke Flies to come out of the maidens and that one beat SOFAI and First Law lto. In beating DF, BB ran approx 0.7 quicker than SOFAI, who also won, on the same day (25 April). From those runs, BB is now no less than 11kgs better off with SOFAI.

The other Lensley runner will also get R1 e/w, Jungle George. Wasn't a great maiden win three runs back but has to be respected coming off a 41 week break. Was wide over 200 further in penultimate and was reported both coughing and not striding when well beaten lto. Appears to have issues but more senior jockey rides and, if all well, around 50/1 a rand or two e/w won't hurt and just might prove profitable

R2 Back to 1000 (was on at 50s in penultimate), High Maintenance has hope.

R3 Jamrock the likely winner. My nutter here has taken a bit of a confidence knock as the stablemate is the one that has received outside support this morning (can also make some excuses for that one's runs so who knows?). Nevertheless, I'm having a couple of rand e/w on Bold Strategy. Around 40s or 50s, why not. In arriving at BS I am... ignoring the last three because of the blinkers... taking into account the wide draws of the prior two (which were still respectable enough efforts despite that, especially when looking at some collateral lines), and concentrating on the run to Cheval Noir 6 back, that was his Bingo debut and came off a 12 week break, a similar run, back to the 1400, and he is not without hope imo. Calibre might also run a fair race.

Will try to pointlessly waffle on about some later races in a while, just in case anyone should be reading and have a slight interest in my words of idiot wisdom

Be(s)t of luck to all

R4 The one that I am really interested in on the day. Managed to get 14s e/w about Rock Burner. This one was out in the voided race recently. Seemed to be affected by the possibility of a false start though can't be certain about that. Was way behind, Niko said he and a couple of others could be forgotten about or whatever in commentary, but if you watch the replay, RB actually ran on pretty nicely. Whether all being equal he would have got to stablemate Maths Major can't be known and is possibly unlikely but, if breaking well I think RB will be a big runner here, especially as Maths Major has a wide draw here.

Ok, to finish quick...

R5 If stable performing day then Red Special could be hard to beat. Rich Approval and the possible value, Seven Kings, might be the ones to takes advantage if RS flops. Master Archer and Masnoon will not be big shock winners for me should that happen.

R6 Big price imo about Pigeon Flyer now the blinkers are removed. Can never be sure with the stable but prior collateral must give him a chance, 16s decent imo.

R7 ? Razzle My Tazzle and Lady Casey make a little appeal at the prices.

R8 ? Artic Appeal, Grozny and Rock Of Fire would be my trifecta three.

R9 Back to the idiots. At the prices, I'll give Le Grey a rand or two e/w. Third run after a rest and a decent draw for a change. Tayaar will get 50 cents e/w. Solid As a Rock and Tzitzikama Fire could be involved.

Race 2 - Andrew fortune win
Jozi babe e/W
Razzle my tazzle -e/w

Our best chances , but its only my opinion

4-6 SWITCHED ON Fortune A upset chance
5-2 RICH APPROVAL Ngcobo C eachway but fav very strong
5-5 SEVEN KINGS Fortune A place, maybe upset but fav very strong
5-1 TRADE EMBLEM Habib Devin track not quick , so doubt but can place
6-2 HEAVENLY EXPRESS Ngcobo C big chance
6-5 SECRET DELIGHT Fortune A big chance
7-2 CARIBBEAN BAY Ngcobo C WIN
7-3 DUKES IDOL Fortune A Place
8-10 PENA PALACE Yeni M eachway
9-11 LE GRAY Thackeray M big runner
9-2 MISTY POWER Habib Devin always in contention
9-10 RAINBOW STAR Ngcobo C upset chance

How can a 5-10 shot be beaten by so far?

durbs wrote: How can a 5-10 shot be beaten by so far?

The question is , was it really a 5/10 shot ?