My Durban July picks - with write-ups

Some of you were interested in my write-ups for my fancies and I didn't want it to get cluttered in the July thread. Hope this helps some of you finalise or just to read my point of view.

Black Arthur - Take a close look at the Politician and the KZN Guineas back to back. I'm using the Politician as I feel it was a very strong race - subsequently; BA won a grade 2, rabada a grade 1, Liege a grade 3(beating older horses), Marinaresco 2 grade 3's, Cape Speed just won the KZN derby (beating older horses). Anyone still doubting the form? Back to the races - watch where BA is when they turn for the home straight. LAST in both races. Now honestly tell me in both races, how many of you expected him to make up the ground and win both? in the politician he makes up the ground on the inside (always harder I feel). It's breathtaking. Find me a horse with the sort of electric finishes that BA produces.

I feel the guineas is even more spectacular. Justin Snaith mentioned the fact how intimidating Greyville is for a horse first time out, under lights. BA never seemed to travel, was being scrubbed at by AD, lost his position and had a torrid run. Coming round the bend, with no false rail- severely favours the front runners. Those of you might remember I was big on him in that race and I couldn't believe my eyes seeing the acceleration from him, the margin only shows him winning by .5 length but I tell you, the further they go, the further he wins by. Remember how hard It's my turn found Rabada to pass in the daily news? BA breezed past him. BA is better than any horse in that guineas and he did it the hardest way possible.

Onto the July - BA runs his best from the back. He doesn't have an electric turn of foot as say Abashiri but he builds and builds until he's in full flow. The bad draw might help him and keep him away from the argy bargy. Honestly, I am a little worried about the draw, especially with his running style but his class has swayed me. We know he can make up the ground. I feel Dougie should angle him to the outside and what will be, will be. BA's only had 6 runs you have to consider this, he's still improving and the best is very much yet to come. Just a note about the Cape derby - that is not the real BA. It was a flat run and I can forgive him for that. He still finished fourth. He's come out and destroyed It's my turn. Some of you will pipe up about it being too short for him but it's only 2 furlongs less - no excuse IMO plus he's beaten Rabada at Greyville, something It's my turn failed to do over a distance suited to him and which definitely was too far for Rabada.

Black Arthur 40/1, 20/1, - the 40/1 was put up on the VDJ early fancies thread I think. Cracking price and it's almost like a win win situation. He's been drifting with the choice of AD. I couldn't care less about his price. Anything is possible in the July. Regarding AD's choice, he will obviously know better then all of us, having sat on the horses itself but my opinion is he has been swayed by how easy Bela-Bela has beaten the fillies. The gulf between Nightingale and BA is fairly large I'd say. I rate Bela Bela, but I do not rate her so highly that with only giving Marinaresco and Black Arthur just 1 kg, that she can beat them. Even with the draw, I feel she has too hard of a task.

Marinaresco - The Marinaresco that ran 3rd in the Cape Derby is not good enough to win the July. Simple as that. BUT the Marinaresco that's been gelded is a different proposition altogether and for me, is. Cape derby form isn't bad and Brazuca did come out and run 2nd behind Legal Eagle and Abashiri. He's finally learned to focus on racing and I needed to see the Winter Classic before I can back him and he confirmed an important fact - he can race handy too which I think is important to win a July. We know he can race off them too.

Check out his Winter Guineas win, the way he cruises to the front is something else and that's with severe ring-rustiness. The way he built on that with the Classic win is exciting, he made a Gr 3 race look like a mere canter. He's in the form of his life, on the upgrade, 3rd run after gelding and he can only get better with the experience under his belt. The ease of that winter classic win after racing 4 wide around the turn really excited me - Trust me, the margin shows a under 0.5 length victory but it could have been any amount. He barely got out of 3rd gear. Think we saw at the winning post how highly GVN rates this guy. He has an even better turn of foot than BA and by far the best turn of foot from the 3yo males in the race. Even if he races from the back, he will be eating up the ground and he will be right there. I rate him extremely highly and I feel he's a huge runner. I feel he's a PA banker myself as he can race handy or from behind them. What also sways me is that pre-gelding Marinaresco got within 2 lengths of Its my turn and was near Brazuca(from a bad draw of 14 I might add) in the Cape Derby. I don't understand how some of folks say his form isn't strong enough. Post-gelding Marinaresco is atleast, 4 to 5 lengths better than that and could be even more. Now imagine what this Marinaresco can do and you'll see why he's the hype horse. Ignore Marinaresco at your own peril.

Marinaresco 10/1 - See 13/1 is available now and I'm getting stuck in again. Can't wait to see him run, bring the 19 draw on.

Abashiri - 14/1 for a Champion, I'm going to have a saver on him. With the prices I've got 40/1, 20/1 and 10/1, I can well afford a little flutter on this guy. He's basically the only horse I fear for against my two. now I know the weight he's carrying blah blah blah but for me champions can defy the odds and boy is Abba a champ. Some of you ignore him because of how close rocketball got to him in the SA Derby but fail to realise the circumstances. 2400m is probably too far for Abba and I'd say his limit might very well be 2200m. Plus he was wayy off them turning for home and i think zechner went for home too early and he still held on, as a champ does. The question is all about value - would I take 10/1 about a good A division horse like Solid Speed and St Tropez or would I take 14/1 about a Champion who's won the triple crown (1 of only 3 horses to do this ever). Easy decision.

Regarding the older horses - I don't particularly like any of the older horses and here's why. many of the races this season where the 3yos have met the older brigade the 3yo have come out tops and these are the lesser 3yos too. The drill hall, cup trial etc you guys know the races.

One example I'd like to highlight is the Cup trial. Exit here carries 56kg, 0.5 kilo more than Dynamic. And he beat him! Dynamic got within 2 lengths of two of the main older horses in the race - Solid Speed and St Tropez, albeit carrying 2 kg less than SS. LOL, what a horse like Marinaresco would do to Exit Here would be frightening and on that basis I rate the 3yos superior to their older counterparts.

Of course my write ups here may end up being a whole load of rubbish and 4 older horses may fill the first four lol. But that's what we come here for. To read different opinions, how boring would it be if everyone chose the same horse? that's what makes the July so fun is to see the different picks and find out who's right eventually. Feel free to pick holes in my arguments as you see fit.

Great stuff

I have to agree with you on the analysis of BA and M , they are both sired by Silvano and when one looks at the whole card you have to include all the Silvano bred horses in the various races, bold Rex is by the son of Silvano , the strength and speed of Silvano bred horses is amazing.