TBP's attempt at becoming a better bettoR

I've been having a really bad run last few weeks. I know what's to blame: emotional control. I can take a loss without it effecting my betting objectivity only for so long, but after a few losses with no breaks I will start making stupid bets - either understudied and under researched or betting way more than my dedicated betting bankroll provides for.

So I'm going to try a new approach. Going to forget the amount i've blown in the last week and start de novo with 1 or 2 well-studied bets a day.

Gonna do a bit more UK punting than local and I'm gonna study before each bet I make extensively.

I've been playing pretty big, today I lost 5k, saturday I lost 2.4k, friday I made r500. This kinda of betting was way outta the limits of good money management (in the context of punting) and is something I want to avoid going forward.

My bets have been varying anywhere from R200-1k+ a win a bet. I find I have my greatest success when I keep my bet sizes consistent and within what I can comfortably lose. 10% of my bankroll for a good, researched bet has worked for me in the past. But perhaps it should be even less than that.

Sticking to bet sizes within my budget has always been a problem , because the illogical ARM in me will say you LOST money there by betting sensibly when I win and this often leads me to increase my bet size.
This is something I've gotta to learn to completely ignore or I'm destined to go broke repeatedly.

Today I was playing 1k horse doubles (and only going by the jockey bookings and price - immediately apparent market support).

ALso I put 1.5k on an over 2.5 goal bet on a soccer game I had done a bit of research on but chose to ignore what I learn't studying the previous games and stats - all indicating that it would likely be a low scoring game at the last minute and instead I went with the hopeless punter logic of if the bookie has priced overs at 0.6 and unders at over even money, surely overs is more likely.

The last 3 days I've been very impulsive in my bet size and not doing the research and being patient and illogically following "pointers" (like price drifts, jockey bookings, and sometimes just plain blind jockey/yard favouritism - irrespective of merit).

Chasing losses accrued through stupid impulsive betting with more stupid impulsive betting is also a big leak for me.

These are some of the leaks obvious to me, preventing me from being a profitable and consistent sports bettor.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel in this game yet (cos I've never lost enough to have any real negative consequences other than extreme shame and guilt.

I wanna give disciplined , measured and informed betting another chance before I throw in the towel and limit myself to backing the football teams I like for weekly games with friends or stop betting altogether.

So anyway, I thought I'd make this thread so I can post my progress and open myself up to constructive criticism that will hopefully make me improve further.

I hope I'm not rambling, it is late....

Will update on my progress probably tomorrow.

Feel free to comment any tips or feedback.

Best of luck mate , will read with interest

TBP, I found myself in the same place early in May. In fact lost 10K in 2 days. Then I took a step back and analyzed what I was doing wrong. The first thing I found is that I had no significant win ratio in SA races. Whatever money I was making in the UK races, I was losing that and more in SA races. So I stopped punting SA races save only for the features where I have some reassurance that all jocks will give off their best in graded races and not throw away wins (this is not an attack on the jocks). Started studying UK form, reading up comments (racing post is pretty good) and then limiting the number of bets I take. Been going well and once the KZN season is over, I will then focus on UK racing only. Also find Singapore and HK racing to be easier to pick winners.

Good luck with your new strategy.

Limiting yourself to just one or two well studied bets per day is a very good move and, assuming you do your homework thoroughly and interpret the form correctly, it will almost certainly pay off in the long term. Be patient, don't lose your confidence if you have a losing run and resist the temptation to go after your losses.

Punting on horses is really just about knowledge. If you know more than the bookmakers or, if you're on a betting exchange, other punters, then, if you apply your knowledge correctly, you will make money from them in the long run. It's no different to most other walks of life - the more you put in (i.e. the more you study form, the greater the knowledge you acquire), the more you'll get out of it.

Keep us posted on your progress and good luck!

I have been punting for 44 years and can endorse most of the comments made in this thread.

Some of my comments which I have posted previously I am going to repeat hereunder as I have made them before but I hope they assist those who have not read them:

1.) My horse punting has historically been the least successful of my activities.

2.) South African horseracing has been the worst of those activities.

3.) I have had some significant successes with sports betting. The most important issue with sports betting is that I feel CONFIDENT (win or lose) putting down my cash whereas with horseracing I always feel at a disadvantage.

The big change for me came about 10+ years ago when I realized that I was making a fundamental error in my approach - I was punting just for the sake of punting and without any clearly defined objective.

To elaborate - we probably all punt too much (in volume). A week in punting can see you go from hero to zero or vice versa. Look back over just a single month and you might be amazed how much your fortunes have gyrated.

It was at this point that I accidentally tripped over what has become my core strategy - what I call the 'destination event'. Typically this will be any one of the following - English Premiership, Super 18, Football World Cup, Rugby World Cup etc. You usually have at least one of these events each year to fire into.

This means that you have potentially ONE ONLY payday per year but if you catch it right it will be massive and allow you to do something positive with your win - eg pay off your bond, buy a car or go on a nice holiday.

( I was fortunate to catch last year's Rugby World Cup right and accumulated 470 bets on NZ ranging from R10 up to a couple of thousand. My payout totalled just under R600k. I now have a Porsche Cayman S sitting in my garage to remind me of my success ).

My horseracing activity is now solely confined to the UK BUT WITH THE FOLLOWING exceptions :

I DO NOT punt on races over 1000 - 1200 metres as I find they throw up the biggest number of 'results'.

I avoid most juvenile races as owners like Godolphin often have multiple entries and, as they do not punt, can win with any one of those runners irrespective as to the fact that their 'fancy' is trading at 1/3.

I show extreme caution on steeplechase races of 4800m & further.

So my activity is fundamentally confined to the flat from 1400m - 3200m and both hurdle & steeplechasing with the exceptions as described above. Avoid 'bumpers' (flat races for young future jumpers ) - they can ruin you.

The rest you can learn for yourself as per your personal preferences. Certain courses have their own unique characteristics and produce results accordingly - eg Goodwood, Windsor & Southwell. You will learn......by paying!

Now here's the real bonus!

I hardly ever study form but, instead, use a combination of the (deadly) Timeform ratings/analysis & market movements to construct my bets. This information is available free on Betfair.

To this end it is essential that you use the market indexes next to each horse on Betfair to see how a race market is unfolding. It won't necessarily guide you to winners but it will show you supposedly 'fancied' horses that are weak and save you wasting thousands.

Every rand I make on UK racing is immediately rolled over onto my 'destination event'. On a really good day I am able to punt a couple of thousand into that event; leaving me with the prospect of perhaps winning a substantial sum with just my winnings at risk. Naturally this can tie up cash for fairly long periods but I console myself that it is not my money.

Why UK? In a few words - much better quality racing. Predominantly better horses backed by a strong market tend to throw up fewer hiroshimic results. A combination of many issues has weakened South African racing quality from a punting perspective.

And lastly - AVOID BIG MEETINGS. They are designed to hurt you & should only be played with token amounts 'for fun'. Assuming you feel that losing money is 'fun'. You can find a 5/2 'good thing' in the UK with perhaps only one live opponent as easily as your 5/2 July fancy with 17 'live' competitors. There is no bonus paid for backing a big race winner.

Garrick you bought a Porsche with your winnings so tell me why is it parked it your garage?

Welcome back Chicken :woohoo:

chicken n chips wrote: Garrick you bought a Porsche with your winnings so tell me why is it parked it your garage?

Welcome back CnC, as per Garrick "to remind me of my success"

chicken n chips wrote: Garrick you bought a Porsche with your winnings so tell me why is it parked it your garage?

Because I can't afford the petrol, C&C. Lol.

Garrick wrote:

chicken n chips wrote: Garrick you bought a Porsche with your winnings so tell me why is it parked it your garage?

Because I can't afford the petrol, C&C. Lol.

:lol: :lol:

Welcome back chook

ps we all have bought something extravigant from winnings

I bout a Lexus, unfortunately i couldn`t afford to take full cover insurance

and yes i wrapped it round a parked car

^true dat.

my tournament poker days were when i had the biggest and most frequent wins.

So an update: am giving today a miss cos I still feel bothered by the figure i'm down since friday. Think it would affect my impulse control if I were to punt today.

I plan to load up 1k in my betting account tomorrow and use that as a bankroll for 50-100R bets.

Will keep you posted.