Vaal Tuesday 17/11/15

Discuss the card below

Inside course before anyone asks

According to sahorseracing the pen is 20 with 36mm rain in the last 7 days but maybe be mindful that, on the forecast I am looking at anyway, there is rain forecast this pm and though it is due to clear, it does not look good again from about 3pm onwards tomorrow. Sahorseracing's current weather is... "Partly Cloudy with 53% chance of rain, 24kph North Westerly". They might get nothing of course but on the other hand, I guess they could get an overnight deluge.

Melliflora in the 6th will be difficult to beat.

Heard that it has hailed in some parts of jhb today.

Very attractive card. Shaama looks the business

Love this card as most races have an interest for the future

I never tip first timers but the money in the 3rd looks the right money

Will no doubt be some shocks but it loos pretty straigh forward on paper

SELECTIONS
RACE 1 SPAN DIE SEILE
RACE 2 HONOLUA BAY
RACE 3 ROVING JET
RACE 4 FORTISSIMA
RACE 5 BAD BOY BUDDY BOY
RACE 6 MELLIFLORA
RACE 7 SHAAMA
RACE 8 MASTERS SPIRIT

Question... Why is Masters Spirit running from MR 76?

Sorry if im being dumb

Haven't posted in a while, have taken a break for a little while but have still followed daily. Here goes nothing.

R2 Not a race I'd have a bet on as a first timer doesn't have to be too special here. Interesting that one is being backed so who knows the money may be spot on. Of the raced runners, amazing var has been backed on all outings and disappointed so clearly rated by the stable and will watch for some late money, for value voluptuous lady makes appeal but as I said wont be having a bet here.

R3 Reef of fortune seems a decent individual but is drifting alarmingly with the money for the first timer. One that gets my attention however is O'brien the lion, best runs have been over this sort of trip and the run that gets my attention is the second to sands of time who wasn't disgraced next time out running 4th a length to Caymen sunset. OBL beat Neuf de pape that day who trounced the opposition next time out and also beat revelation who appears rated by the stable, so at 20's will be my e/w selection.

R4 Peggy Jay and Fortissima looks like a match race between the two. One worth possible inclusion is sweet on you, has not been disgraced last two runs at the vaal.

R5 Bad boy buddy boy is an obvious inclusion, one I think is over due his 8th career win is Vulcan. Has the draw, Lerena knows him well and what I feel is his best distance. 3w and 3p in 9 attempts at the distance. Will try an e/w at around 8's.

R6 I agree with earlier sentiments that Melli Flora looks hard to beat and therefore at 0,6 will not be having a bet at this price. Biggest danger for me is Tahini but can't see either out of the top three.

R7 A contest that looks a lot trickier to me. Horses may be prepping for the sprint feature on summer cup day and I predict a tight affair. I however will be in the camp of Lerena again. He's had two rides for Craig Mayhew this season and has had a win and a place making him possibly Craig's go to man. This can be seen further if you take the last two seasons. 12 rides 6w and 3p. The horse itself has yet to put a foot wrong and at 5's may be the value in the race.

R8 Plenty of horses in with a chance in this tricky last on the card. The favorite I think is rightly so favorite but may in my opinion drift out from the current price as it looks more wide open than it suggests at the prices. For me the value may lie with another Zaki/Zackey combination in Last battle. Hasn't had the best of luck of late and his last win came off a similar mark. Well drawn, shows an affinity for a bit of sting out of the ground so at 10's I think may be worth an e/w punt. With a possible e/w double with the other Zaki/Zackey combo in race 3.

All the best chaps.

BP: Str line: 9/8/10/10/4/1

Double:
Race 2 #8
Race3 # 10

I watched BONDIBLU on debut - that was a cracking run as she was slow away - I black-booked her then and expect returns soon - the winner did not show next start but I do think this horse will win soon. Today might just be the day.

Azzie should have a good day if his horses ran to ability .........................but none are right now!
The form of his horses is worrying for exotics!