Some very cautious selections, interesting there is plenty of quick runs today, something the Vaal trainers are usually not keen on,this is the last time some of these runners will have to earn their corn before the track closes
RACE 1 ANGIE THE REBEL
RACE 2 BATTLE IN SEATTLE
RACE 3 GINGER SIOUX
RACE 4 RONIN WARRIOR
RACE 5 A P S LILY
RACE 6 FLAG OF FRANCE
RACE 7 MISS LECTURE
RACE 8 CUMBERLAND
Deeno wrote: giving it a miss today.
Horses that interest me though are:
Pendulum of Life
Battle in Seattle
Ronin Warrior, and obviously
Fashion Secret
Far from an easy card and not much in the way of ones at prices I like despite the fact there are some prety poor fields. Very difficult also to be clear on form with so many fluctuations in the condition of the track in recent months. Anyway...
R1 Angie The Rebel looks a worthy favourite to me. Windinmyhair may go closest with The Berry Lady for the trifecta.
R2 R2 Battle In Seattle was beaten 3l over c/d by Mighty Manzi lto and is now 2kgs better off. Similar tactics and time for BIS as for his penultimate run. Given the steady progress and strong finish by MM that day I think he will confirm, assuming of course the latter can repeat the effort, Hard (for me!) to see why any of the three behind that day should overturn the form. That said, Kings V "improved" on the turf on Tuesday for Tolmay so perhaps Green Rock will do the same on the sand, though even at best I am not convinced he would be the winner here. The three other runners though have points of "interest". Having ridden BIS the last three times here, Lerena switches to Vulcan who, under GL, has found something of a return to form on the turf recently, if that improvement can be transferred to the sand then he must have a decent chance. Fortune is up on MM's stablemate Rock Me Var, he has some fair turf form and his full sister Solarium, also from the Azzie stable, proved to be a decent course performer at this level, though usually ran over shorter. Raise The Red might be the value in the race. Draws and/or d might have accounted for the three poor turf shows prior to the lengthy 36 week rest and he was not disgraced in his comeback run here lto when plugging on. Stable is in decent form and around a year ago he beat Vulcan by 4.5l over c/d. That said, on lines through Olympic Owen he has plenty lengths to find with MM. Will chance R1 e/w nevertheless if the price is right. Mighty Manzi x Vulcan x Rock Me Var
R3 No disrespect intended but plenty what should be no hopers here. Nothing indicates to me that Infinity Knot will take to the surface. Never know of course but imo it is unlikely. Eastside faded badly lto over 1600 and should be better suited to this d and now gets Lerena up. On the contrary, the drop in d might not be in Ginger Sioux's favour but she gets Fortune up. She is much better drawn than when only 0.8l behind Eastside over c/d in her penultimate run but that may make little difference given her come from the back style of running. Class Queen was not far off either lto but on that performance she did look somewhat one-paced and only caught up with Eastside as that one tired late. Performance was also in the mix in the finish of that race and I think she might be worth chancing the R5 e/w. She was a mile back from the early stages in that race but made good progress throughout the last 500 to be right there for the places. The problem is if she get going quickly enough to be involved in the finish over 150 shorter. The form of both trainer and jockey is not a positive but that run did come off a 28 week rest and R5 won't hurt. Lindeman Lust beat both GS and Eastside in her last outing over this c/d. That was a huge, unfathomable improvement on all her previous runs. Khumalo is up and though drawn 10, she broke smartly last time and if doing so again then she could well overcome the draw and would then probably be the one to beat. Being by Kahal, Lady Duchess might take to the surface. Her half-sister by Mogok was a massive failure at Bingo though but, her half-brother (by Miesque's Approval), having shown virtually nothing in 14 turf runs, walloped (an albeit very weak) field on Bingo debut by over 8l. 50c e/w may be in order. Bluemoonrush's 5th over 1000 lto in her 3rd career run was nothing special on face value but she did start going backwards from the 600 before finding new life at the 200 and was finishing best of all. She did fade in 2 runs over 1200 on the turf but perhaps the sand is her preference and she may appreciate the step up in d on this course, she has a useful draw in 3 and represents the currently comparatively useful Lucky/Zackey combo. I have a sneaky feeling for her... The other three, seriously, they can't... PS Very disappointed with the price for BMR and definitely would not be taking that price but nevertheless... Bluemoonrush x Performance x Lindeman Lust
R4 No disrepect intended but maybe all of these should be no hopers! Two sand debutants head the market. Don Christo has run respectably enough in two average turf fields and is by Kahal but only one other sibling has tried the sand, by Al Mufti, and it took her six attempts to win a maiden at Bingo, being convincingly beaten in most others. The other at the head of the market, Le Clos has maybe slight strongly turf form imo and on breeding has a fair chance of taking to the surface but far from certain. They are both drawn low though and if taking to the surface either could win comfortably. Of the two I would probably prefer LC but at the prices, for me definitely not worth chancing either. Both Ronin Warrior's half-siblings showed marked improvement second time out and he may improve over the extra 200 from the 1 box but hard to have confidence following a 17l defeat on debut. Tarry is apparently hoping for an improved run... wow, really?! Don't you think that might be being a little optimistic Sean!?? Oh and the horse has more than halved in price... :whistle: Again, though, at the price, no way I would chance it. The rest though look a very average lot... to be kind. I'm not thinking on this race any longer, R1 exactas and trifectas on Seven Cheers x Hey Dude x Keep On Flying
R5 Escudo x A P's Lily x Lady Of Kildare (stable obviously like Fashion Secret but I'll wait and see how she fares against better than very mediocre)
Bob Brogan wrote: Engels I think Battle in Seattle was giving a KAK ride last time , gave the horse no chance to get home, better ride today and it's a loner imo
Why would Lerena be on Vulcan Bob? Genuine question, not being anti BIS in saying that.
And thanks, amazing sometimes how much clearer things (hopefully!!! lol) become when you do a waffle like that, very different selections in the first few from my original thoughts. Got very disheartened though after seeing the price on Bluemoonrush, having thought I might have a wee go at a half decent price! lol
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