Durban July weights summary by Charles Faul

VODACOM DURBAN JULY 2015

SUMMARY
The runners are discussed in descending order of WFA FMR’s (Form Merit Ratings) which are set at 10lb above the TFR (Timeform) Scale

FUTURA. 145lb

4-Y-O by DYNASTY: The only unrestricted Gr1 SW (unrestricted = open to all ages and both sexes) in the field are Futura and Wylie Hall – He’s won Three! – Champion’s Cup, L’Ormarins QP, J&B Met. His J&B Met win was world-class form at the weights – think Timeform 134!
See Table B: But for Majmu who as a 3-Y-O filly would receive 12lb from him (5,5kg) in a proper WFA contest (she receives 5,5kg), he is worse off than WFA by between 2kg (4,4lb = 3 lengths) and 7kg (15,4lb = 10 lengths) with the whole field. Is it fair that he meets Legal Eagle on 2,5kg (5,5 lb = 3,23 lengths) worse terms than WFA; and Dynastic Power on 7kg (15,4 lb = 10 lengths) worse than WFA? CAN HE DO IT? It’s a big ask, but history tells us that the Top Seed has defied this sort of disadvantage on a few occasions. E.g. 4-Y-O Tiger Fish in 1959; 6-Y-O Java Head in 1966; 4-Y-O Sea Cottage in 1967; 4-Y-O Politician in 1978; 5-Y-O El Picha in 2000; 5-Y-O Pocket Power in 2008; 4-Y-O Heavy Metal in 2013. Despite his low position on Table C, you can’t leave him out of any exotics.

LEGAL EAGLE. 145lb

3-Y-O by Greys Inn: A winner of 4 of 6 lifetime starts including 3-Y-O Gr1 S A Derby. Earns this rating by demolishing a representative field of older horses in Gr3 Jubilee Hcp where he gave 4-Y-O Judicial a 23lb WFA beating. Judicial won the Gr2 Victory Moon St on 15 Nov and on 29 Nov showed merit of 14lb behind Louis The King when 3rd in Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup.
Legal Eagle could be 9lb superior to Louis The King (23-14lb) who showed merit 7lb behind Futura in the J&B Met. He meets Futura on 2,5kg (3,5 lengths) better terms than WFA. He may be slung in at the weights? But he has never raced at Greyville.

FRENCH NAVY. 141lb

3-Y-O by Count DuBois: Masterfully ridden from a bad draw to beat a strong field in the Gr1 Daily News. Very impressive victory, but we will only find out just how good he is on Saturday. Legal Eagle would look to have his beating in receipt of 1lb on S A Derby form.

WYLIE HALL. 138lb

5-Y-O by Redoute’s Choice: S A Derby winner (like Legal Eagle). Crossed the line first under 57,5kg last year and looked unlucky to be disqualified. Comes into the race off decisive victories in open Gr2 and Gr1 stakes. 58kg is a difficult task but his class and liking for Greyville make him a big runner.

ICE MACHINE. 138lb

6-Y-O gelding by Silvano: Earns this rating with wins of strong fields in Gr2 Green Point St and Gr2 Drill Hall. Certainly bred to stay and is reported to be sounder than ever before. Watch out, these Silvano’s improve with age!

HOT TICKET. 137lb

5-Y-O by Silvano: Excellent trial in Natal Derby. Loves Greyville. Prefers further but remember that his grandam is by blitzvinnig Harry Hotspur! Next dam by Politician. He will be running them down at the end!

MAJMU. 137lb

3-Y-O filly by Redoute’s Choice: 6 wins from 8 starts; badly hampered when 4th Spring Fillies and a great run to Wylie Hall in the Champions Challenge when only 1,25 lengths behind him on exactly WFA terms. Had she been receiving the gender allowance of 5lb she beats him 2 lengths! Mike de Kock rates her “The best filly I’ve ever trained”. Igugu did it with 55kg! and her trainer says she’s better! She’s definitely a better 3-Y-O filly than Do You Remember who ran 0,5 lengths 3rd in 2013. Faces a tough task, but we must respect her based on the form of Igugu and Do You Remember.

PUNTA ARENAS. 137lb

6-Y-O by Silvano: Put up the WOW trial when romping home in the Cup Trial! To quote Stan Elley: “ He is thriving in Durban. He has never been better and Ian Sturgeon gets on well with him.” Ian Sturgeon rode a masterful race on him in the Cup Trial, so he knows how to beat that bad draw. Must be included in all exotics.

THE CONGLOMERATE. 137lb

3-Y-O by Lonhro: Has won 5 of 9 to date including very impressive in the Politician Stakes and the KRA Guineas. Beaten fair and square by French Navy in the Daily News but now has a 1,5kg (2 length) pull in the weights. He will be ridden cold from 20 draw which may just do the trick. Respect him! His mother was at her best over 2400m in Australia, so this extra will suit.

DEPUTY JUD. 137lb

3-Y-O by Juddpot: Impressed when chasing Legal Eagle home in the S A Derby and now has a 1kg pull in weights. Grand looking 3-Y-O. Ignore Daily News run when badly hampered. Won’t be surprised to see him improve over this 2200m.

TELLINA. 135lb

5-Y-O by Silvano who has a remarkable 5 runners in the race! Big run under 58kg last year when 4th beaten less than 2 lengths; now down 4kg! You must respect him from no.3 draw.

HELDERBERG BLUE. 135lb

4-Y-O by Jet Master: Big improvement when 2,85 lengths behind Futura (gave 4 half-kilos) in J&B Met. Now has a massive 9 half-kilo (6,3 lengths) pull in the weights. Excellent run at the weights in Cup Trial under 59,5kg. To quote his trainer Mike Bass: “Helderberg Blue has peaked just at the right time. Bernard was very impressed with his gallop when we fitted him with French blinkers (cheek pieces). With a low weight and good draw I think he will run a big race.” Include in all exotics!

DYNASTIC POWER. 135lb

4-Y-O by Dynasty: His SAF bred sire won the July and he traces through 9 SAF bred mares to imported Lancashire Lass in Vol 1 of SAF Stud Book (1906). Charles Southey imported Lancashire Lass (GB 1871) and from her bred Pauline (SAF 1888)(also Vol 1). To the cover of Southey’s great sire Pearl Diver Pauline bred Peerless (1899)(also Vol 1), Pearl Maiden (1900), Southern Star (1902) and Mermaid (1903), all top-class broodmares! Peerless won the 1903 Durban July (1600m) and bred 3 crackerjacks – Nobleman (won 1911 July as 2-Y-O ridden by Syd Laird’s father, Alec), Noble Lady (won S A Derby and Oaks) and Unequalled. Nobleman and Unequalled by top-class stallions.
Dynastic Power’s 8th dam, Pearl Maiden, was a top-class sprinter-miler and full-sister to Peerless! The legendary breeder Henry Nourse bought both Peerless and Pearl Maiden from Charles Southey – Nourse’s stud was built on Pearl Diver mares! Nourse bred Pearl Maiden to his great stallion Greatorex – got Maid Of Honour. He bred her to the equally great Polystome to get Ennobled, whom he bred to his homebred Champion Sire Dignitary (SAF) to get Elevated. Elevated to sire Herald (by Hyperion) bred Peerless II who to the cover of Goodasgold got Lily dam of Champion Run For Lily. To the cover of Royal Prerogative, Run For Lily bred Crimson Lily, a moderate one time winner who has bred Red Badge (Gr2 SW. 2nd Cape Derby, 3rd Durban July twice, 3rd Gold Cup), Ravishing (S A Derby Gr1) and Dynastic Power. Don’t forget that Dynastic Power defeated Legislate in a 1400m at 3 years and won the Winter Derby by a length from Power King. He raced 3 wide when beating Power King and Punta Arenas in the Betting World 1900 Greyville 15 May. He then ran 12,8 lengths back in the Cup Trial where he was reported “not striding out” by the Club Vet. Stan Elley reports: “He returned home with a sore stifle so we treated him with anti-inflammatories for 5 days and eased off his work. He recovered quickly and Corne Orfer was asked to give him a good workout in his official gallop. Corne was very impressed with the way he finished the gallop.” On Tuesday 30 June Greg Cheyne did pace work on him: “ He worked well, 100% sound.”
As a 4-Y-O with bottom weight who has top-class speed and stays well, we think he could send Stan out in a blaze of glory and strike a big blow for the Stud Book suffix “SAF”. Include in all exotic bets!

GOLD ONYX. 134lb

7-Y-O by Black Minnalouche: Big runs in LQP and J&B Met; loves Greyville; stays well. Needed last race. Deserves respect at best.

HALVE THE DEFICIT. 134lb

6-Y-O by Right Approach: Top-class form when 2,15 lengths behind Legislate in Rising Sun Gold Challenge. At level weights beaten 3,25 lengths by Wylie Hall in Champions Challenge – now has 4,5kg pull (6,6 lengths). Another with a shout for money.

POWER KING. 134lb

4-Y-O by Silvano: Unquestionably one of the best of his generation. Two exceptional trials. Well drawn. Bottom weight. Must be included in all exotics!

PINE PRINCESS. 130lb

3-Y-O filly by Captain Al: Exceptional form at last two starts. Stays well. Runs well at Greyville. Good draw. Bottom weight. Consider for all exotics.

TAMAANEE. 130lb

3-Y-O filly by Teofilio: Romped home from good 4-y-o fillies in Gerald Rosenberg. Has a 3kg pull with Majmu for 3,5 lengths in L J Empress Club St. 52kg will make her effective.


WEIGHTS COMPARED TO PROPER WFA

This table compares what the field carry compared to what they would carry in a proper WFA (i.e. 3-Y-O’s receive 7lb)(fillies also receive a 5lb gender allowance)



MAJMU meets FUTURA on 0.5kg worse terms than she would at WFA. The rest of the field meet him on between 2kg and 7kg worse terms than WFA.

Charles Faull

VODACOM JULY PREVIEW
Our summary follows the following Tables which provide our merit assessment (FMR=Form Merit Ratings in lb). A fair and proper weight-for-age (WFA) allowance is 7lb for 3-Y-O’s (3,5kg). Fillies should receive a 2kg gender allowance.
TABLE A: CLASS INDICATOR (WFA FMR)
FMR lb
FUTURA 145
LEGAL EAGLE 145
FRENCH NAVY 141
WYLIE HALL 138
ICE MACHINE 138
HOT TICKET 137
MAJMU 137
PUNTA ARENAS 137
THE CONGLOMERATE 137
DEPUTY JUD 137
TELLINA 135
HELDERBERG BLUE 135
DYNASTIC POWER 135
GOLD ONYX 134
HALVE THE DEFICIT 134
POWER KING 134
DYNAMIC 133
PINE PRINCESS 130
TAMAANEE 130
MAC DE LAGO 130

TABLE B: WEIGHTS COMPARED TO PROPER WFA
This table compares what the field carry compared to what they would carry in a proper WFA (i.e. 3-Y-O’s receive 7lb)(fillies also receive a 5lb gender allowance)
WFA KG ACTUAL KG DIFFERENCE -KG
FUTURA.4 60 60 0
WYLIE HALL. 5 60 58 -2
ICE MACHINE. 6 60 56.5 -3.5
HOT TICKET. 5 60 56 -4
MAJMU. 3. F 54.5 55 +0.5
GOLD ONYX. 7 60 55 -5
FRENCH NAVY.3.c 56.5 54.5 -2
HALVE THE DEFICIT. 6 60 54.5 -5.5
PUNTA ARENAS. 6 60 54.5 -5.5
LEGAL EAGLE. 3.c 56.5 54 -2.5
TELLINA. 5 60 54 -6
HELDERBERG BLUE. 4 60 53.5 -6.5
THE CONGLOMERATE.3.c 60 53 -7
DEPUTY JUD. 3.c 56.5 53 -3.5
POWER KING. 4 60 53 -7
DYNASTIC POWER. 4 60 53 -7
PINE PRINCESS. 3.f 54.5 52.5 -2
TAMAANEE. 3.f 54 52 -2
DYNAMIC .5 60 53 -7
MAC DE LAGO. 3 56.5 53 -2.5
MAJMU meets FUTURA on 0.5kg worse terms than she would at WFA. The rest of the field meet him on between 2kg and 7kg worse terms than WFA.

TABLE C: BEST IN ON RATINGS
FMR lb
LEGAL EAGLE +19
DYNASTIC POWER +18
PUNTA ARENAS +17
HELDERBERG BLUE +17
POWER KING +17
TELLINA +16
DYNAMIC +16
HOT TICKET +15
WYLIE HALL +14
ICE MACHINE +14
FRENCH NAVY +14
HALVE THE DEFICIT +14
FUTURA +13
GOLD ONYX +13
THE CONGLOMERATE +13
DEPUTY JUD +13
MAJMU +9
TAMAANEE +9
PINE PRINCESS +8
MAC DE LAGO +6

TABLE CURRENT FORM (PERFORMANCE RATES=LENGTHS)
LENGTHS
LEGAL EAGLE +6.1
PUNTA ARENAS +6.1
WYLIE HALL +6.1
FUTURA +6.0
FRENCH NAVY +5.9
PINE PRINCESS +5.7
MAJMU +5.6
HOT TICKET +5.4
ICE MACHINE +5.2
HELDERBERG BLUE +5.1
DEPUTY JUD +5.1
POWER KING +5.0
THE CONGLOMERATE +4.9
DYNASTIC POWER +4.8
HALVE THE DEFICIT +4.8
TELLINA +4.4
GOLD ONYX +4.2
TAMAANEE +4.2
DYNAMIC +4.2
MAC DE LAGO +4.1

SUMMARY
The runners are discussed in descending order of WFA FMR’s (Form Merit Ratings) (Table A) which are set at 10lb above the TFR (Timeform) Scale
1. FUTURA. 145lb
4-Y-O by DYNASTY: The only unrestricted Gr1 SW (unrestricted = open to all ages and both sexes) in the field are Futura and Wylie Hall – He’s won Three! – Champion’s Cup, L’Ormarins QP, J&B Met. His J&B Met win was world-class form at the weights – think Timeform 134!
See Table B: But for Majmu who as a 3-Y-O filly would receive 12lb from him (5,5kg) in a proper WFA contest (she receives 5,5kg), he is worse off than WFA by between 2kg (4,4lb = 3 lengths) and 7kg (15,4lb = 10 lengths) with the whole field. Is it fair that he meets Legal Eagle on 2,5kg (5,5 lb = 3,23 lengths) worse terms than WFA; and Dynastic Power on 7kg (15,4 lb = 10 lengths) worse than WFA? CAN HE DO IT? It’s a big ask, but history tells us that the Top Seed has defied this sort of disadvantage on a few occasions. E.g. 4-Y-O Tiger Fish in 1959; 6-Y-O Java Head in 1966; 4-Y-O Sea Cottage in 1967; 4-Y-O Politician in 1978; 5-Y-O El Picha in 2000; 5-Y-O Pocket Power in 2008; 4-Y-O Heavy Metal in 2013. Despite his low position on Table C, you can’t leave him out of any exotics.
2. LEGAL EAGLE. 145lb
3-Y-O by Greys Inn: A winner of 4 of 6 lifetime starts including 3-Y-O Gr1 S A Derby. Earns this rating by demolishing a representative field of older horses in Gr3 Jubilee Hcp where he gave 4-Y-O Judicial a 23lb WFA beating. Judicial won the Gr2 Victory Moon St on 15 Nov and on 29 Nov showed merit of 14lb behind Louis The King when 3rd in Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup.
Legal Eagle could be 9lb superior to Louis The King (23-14lb) who showed merit 7lb behind Futura in the J&B Met. He meets Futura on 2,5kg (3,5 lengths) better terms than WFA. He may be slung in at the weights? But he has never raced at Greyville.
3. FRENCH NAVY. 141lb
3-Y-O by Count DuBois: Masterfully ridden from a bad draw to beat a strong field in the Gr1 Daily News. Very impressive victory, but we will only find out just how good he is on Saturday. Legal Eagle would look to have his beating in receipt of 1lb on S A Derby form.
4. WYLIE HALL. 138lb
5-Y-O by Redoute’s Choice: S A Derby winner (like Legal Eagle). Crossed the line first under 57,5kg last year and looked unlucky to be disqualified. Comes into the race off decisive victories in open Gr2 and Gr1 stakes. 58kg is a difficult task but his class and liking for Greyville make him a big runner.
5. ICE MACHINE. 138lb
6-Y-O gelding by Silvano: Earns this rating with wins over strong fields in Gr2 Green Point St and Gr2 Drill Hall. Certainly bred to stay and is reported to be sounder than ever before. Watch out, these Silvano’s improve with age!
6. HOT TICKET. 137lb
5-Y-O by Silvano: Excellent trial in Natal Derby. Loves Greyville. Prefers further but remember that his grandam is by blitzvinnig Harry Hotspur! Next dam by Politician. He will be running them down at the end!
7. MAJMU. 137lb
3-Y-O filly by Redoute’s Choice: 6 wins from 8 starts; badly hampered when 4th Spring Fillies and a great run to Wylie Hall in the Champions Challenge when only 1,25 lengths behind him on exactly WFA terms. Had she been receiving the gender allowance of 5lb she beats him 2 lengths! Mike de Kock rates her “The best filly I’ve ever trained”. Igugu did it with 55kg! and her trainer says she’s better! She’s definitely a better 3-Y-O filly than Do You Remember who ran 0,5 lengths 3rd in 2013. Faces a tough task, but we must respect her based on the form of Igugu and Do You Remember.
8. PUNTA ARENAS. 137lb
6-Y-O by Silvano: Put up the WOW trial when romping home in the Cup Trial! To quote Stan Elley: “ He is thriving in Durban. He has never been better and Ian Sturgeon gets on well with him.” Ian Sturgeon rode a masterful race on him in the Cup Trial, so he knows how to beat that bad draw. Must be included in all exotics.
9. THE CONGLOMERATE. 137lb
3-Y-O by Lonhro: Has won 5 of 9 to date including very impressive in the Politician Stakes and the KRA Guineas. Beaten fair and square by French Navy in the Daily News but now has a 1,5kg (2 length) pull in the weights. He will be ridden cold from 20 draw which may just do the trick. Respect him! His mother was at her best over 2400m in Australia, so this extra will suit.
10. DEPUTY JUD. 137lb
3-Y-O by Juddpot: Impressed when chasing Legal Eagle home in the S A Derby and now has a 1kg pull in weights. Grand looking 3-Y-O. Ignore Daily News run when badly hampered. Won’t be surprised to see him improve over this 2200m.
11. TELLINA. 135lb
5-Y-O by Silvano who has a remarkable 5 runners in the race! Big run under 58kg last year when 4th beaten less than 2 lengths; now down 4kg! You must respect him from no.3 draw.
12. HELDERBERG BLUE. 135lb
4-Y-O by Jet Master: Big improvement when 2,85 lengths behind Futura (gave 4 half-kilos) in J&B Met. Now has a massive 9 half-kilo (6,3 lengths) pull in the weights. Excellent run at the weights in Cup Trial under 59,5kg. To quote his trainer Mike Bass: “Helderberg Blue has peaked just at the right time. Bernard was very impressed with his gallop when we fitted him with French blinkers (cheek pieces). With a low weight and good draw I think he will run a big race.” Include in all exotics!
13. DYNASTIC POWER. 135lb
4-Y-O by Dynasty: His SAF bred sire won the July and he traces through 9 SAF bred mares to imported Lancashire Lass in Vol 1 of SAF Stud Book (1906). Charles Southey imported Lancashire Lass (GB 1871) and from her bred Pauline (SAF 1888)(also Vol 1). To the cover of Southey’s great sire Pearl Diver Pauline bred Peerless (1899)(also Vol 1), Pearl Maiden (1900), Southern Star (1902) and Mermaid (1903), all top-class broodmares! Peerless won the 1903 Durban July (1600m) and bred 3 crackerjacks – Nobleman (won 1911 July as 2-Y-O ridden by Syd Laird’s father, Alec), Noble Lady (won S A Derby and Oaks) and Unequalled. Nobleman and Unequalled by top-class stallions.
Dynastic Power’s 8th dam, Pearl Maiden, was a top-class sprinter-miler and full-sister to Peerless! The legendary breeder Henry Nourse bought both Peerless and Pearl Maiden from Charles Southey – Nourse’s stud was built on Pearl Diver mares! Nourse bred Pearl Maiden to his great stallion Greatorex – got Maid Of Honour. He bred her to the equally great Polystome to get Ennobled, whom he bred to his homebred Champion Sire Dignitary (SAF) to get Elevated. Elevated to sire Herald (by Hyperion) bred Peerless II who to the cover of Goodasgold got Lily dam of Champion Run For Lily. To the cover of Royal Prerogative, Run For Lily bred Crimson Lily, a moderate one time winner who has bred Red Badge (Gr2 SW. 2nd Cape Derby, 3rd Durban July twice, 3rd Gold Cup), Ravishing (S A Derby Gr1) and Dynastic Power. Don’t forget that Dynastic Power defeated Legislate in a 1400m at 3 years and won the Winter Derby by a length from Power King. He raced 3 wide when beating Power King and Punta Arenas in the Betting World 1900 Greyville 15 May. He then ran 12,8 lengths back in the Cup Trial where he was reported “not striding out” by the Club Vet. Stan Elley reports: “He returned home with a sore stifle so we treated him with anti-inflammatories for 5 days and eased off his work. He recovered quickly and Corne Orfer was asked to give him a good workout in his official gallop. Corne was very impressed with the way he finished the gallop.” On Tuesday 30 June Greg Cheyne did pace work on him: “ He worked well, 100% sound.”
As a 4-Y-O with bottom weight who has top-class speed and stays well, we think he could send Stan out in a blaze of glory and strike a big blow for the Stud Book suffix “SAF”. Include in all exotic bets!
14. GOLD ONYX. 134lb
7-Y-O by Black Minnalouche: Big runs in LQP and J&B Met; loves Greyville; stays well. Needed last race. Deserves respect at best.
15. HALVE THE DEFICIT. 134lb
6-Y-O by Right Approach: Top-class form when 2,15 lengths behind Legislate in Rising Sun Gold Challenge. At level weights beaten 3,25 lengths by Wylie Hall in Champions Challenge – now has 4,5kg pull (6,6 lengths). Another with a shout for money.
16. POWER KING. 134lb
4-Y-O by Silvano: Unquestionably one of the best of his generation. Two exceptional trials. Well drawn. Bottom weight. Must be included in all exotics!
17. PINE PRINCESS. 130lb
3-Y-O filly by Captain Al: Exceptional form at last two starts. Stays well. Runs well at Greyville. Good draw. Bottom weight. Consider for all exotics.
18. TAMAANEE. 130lb
3-Y-O filly by Teofilio: Romped home from good 4-y-o fillies in Gerald Rosenberg. Has a 3kg pull with Majmu for 3,5 lengths in L J Empress Club St. 52kg will make her effective.