Kimberley (Flamingo Park) Monday 29/06/15
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Re: Kimberley (Flamingo Park) Monday 29/06/15
9 years 11 months ago
Guys, apologies, I appreciate there is even more waffle than usual, I did start editing but to be honest, I have had enough and those who don't want to won't read anyway! 
And besides, fills up a bit of space on the Bingo threads lol...
ZIETS... please ensure Enchanted Lass runs two good ones in a row for a change!!
R1 A number of young ladies taking on the boys here but perhaps there are more contenders than first meets the eye. Both Andy Cee and Bizzy Peg showed decent early form here over sprint and kiddie sprint distances while three others have beaten Imperial Party into silver, two of whom (by WF times) did so in exactly the same time, Zilnox and Lord Victorious, with Red Lunar the other. Although RL's margin of victory was the biggest, IP was slowly away that day and of the three, LV's success was the most convincing to my eye and the one who gave the impression he would appreciate the extra 200 the more. He also has the advantage of the 1 box. Of AC and BP, the former beat BP into a 3.25l 6th on the latter's debut but BP was poorly away that day and improved when winning nto despite not a great start again, turning a 1.5l defeat by the 4th into a 3.25l success over 1000. AC has a chance but of the two I prefer BP and I think she could prove the main danger... LORD VICTORIOUS x Bizzy Peg x Red Lunar
R2 Overheather and Rainbow Magic could both take to the surface and have chances if so. Of the two, I would probably favour OH and neither would have to be special to win. Of those with c experience, Wild Empress must be considered but I am far from convinced about the quality of that silver on c debut lto. Making Mischief is no star but has put in some reasonable efforts and with Lerena up makes some e/w appeal. Stablemate My Silver Fox disappointed over 1200 lto on the Vaal sand and returns to the 1000 where she put in a better effort in her penultimate run. If taking to this c then she would also have a chance. Poor field and no strong fancy. The support that has come for Overheather though could be significant and I'll row in with her... Overheather x Making Mischief x Rainbow Magic
R3 Another relatively poor looking field which looks open for a complete shock even though I can't make a case for one at huge odds. Eagles's Call is of some interest, seemingly the stable elect stepped up in trip. Not sure about stablemate 7th Lute over this d from a fairly wide draw. The only other three I think "should" have a chance are stablemates Liquification and Gibson plus Idealistic, the latter though, even with Lerena up, does look held by the two Visser runners. Of those two, Khumalo gets the ride on Gibson and one might therefore assume that this is the stable elect. At the prices though I would much rather have a go with Liquification e/w. Well beaten by the stablemate lto but that was over 1800 and Liquification was reported lame. They met in their two runs prior to that also, over 1400 and 1600 and there was very little between them... Gibson 0.1l ahead over 1600, Liquification 1.75l ahead over 1400. I just don't get 2/1 against 12/1, despite the jockey booking... LIQUIFICATION E/W x Gibson x Idealistic
R4 Small idiot of the day, Lady Arrow. Her recent form over further has not been spectacular and she has a wide draw again but 33/1 on a horse from a bang in form stable who has a decent record over c/d is worth a nibble imo... lto over this c/d she had both Enchanting Lass (5/1 2nd fav here) and Legend's Moon (beat Jewel Collection, 5/2 fav here by 0.75l lto) behind (Fleche d'Or ahead of them all). R1 on stablemate Shereya's Angel. National Symbol had a rough start and had to come from a fair way off the pace to beat Lightbeam on the line to win her maiden on c debut coming off a 19 week rest lto. The runner-up, also features here, did the form no harm when winning by 4l nto over 1600. Those fields did not look the strongest though and LB was beaten 7l by EL lto over c/d. Neither are discounted but NS is the much more likely imo, if breaking well should have a fair chance. Jewel Collection has been going the right way since a 41 week break and battled on well lto over c/d before being grabbed late. On 3rd run after that break she also must have a decent chance. That said, the "issue" I have is that her time was a full 3 seconds slower than that of EL who ran in the very next race. i think EL represents big value at around 5/1. She is not the most consistent and again has a wide draw to overcome (as does JC). Her last six runs have gone... good, bad, bad, good, bad, good... but, if she can reproduce that last effort then she is very much the one to beat in this field imo. Fleche d'Or and Action Belle were well beaten by JC lto but, for differing reasons, also have a squeak. I will have a saver on NS as there could be more to come and unlike others, she has has a decent draw... ENCHANTING LASS x National Symbol x LADY ARROW (e/w idiot)
R5 This is another race where I think the one I like is fair value. Razzle My Tazzle's last run here can be ignored as was reportedly not striding and her two previous c runs were fair efforts but nevertheless were in maiden company and her efforts on the Vaal sand, again though reasonable, were not world beaters. Lerena is up but I would rather look elsewhere. Its Magic made an ok c debut lto over 1200 but no better than that. She also has reasonable Vaal sand form at best imo and there must also be a question over the d so again a pass and watch for me. She is though seemingly stable elect over sand debutant Popular Blues who on breeding enters the equation but with Yeni up on the other, again I'll watch. Say Hi might take to the sand and from the 1 box will get R1 e/w but recent form is uninspiring and she returns from a 20 week break to make her sand debut. On The Thames is possibly better than the 4l defeat she suffered at the hands of Legend's Moon lto but although she gets a 2.5kg pull and Khumalo up, draw 13 will likely make life difficult especially with that rival drawn in 2. That must give LM a very good chance here and she ran on nicely lto to take the spoils on her first try at the d. There are thus plenty potentials and another race where a total shock is not impossible, perhaps one to tread carefully. Nevertheless, I do think one horse is potentially very good value here, though the previous race will need to be watched if possible as some of the same logic applies. Over Achiever fought gamely lto and was only just pipped by Enchanting Lass, my selection for R4. The time of that race was some 3 seconds quicker than the time run by LM. Unfortunately, OA is drawn wide in 12 but that is not necessarily a huge concern as she came from well off the pace in the early stages lto to challenge. Somewhat dangerous given the potentials but I am very hopeful OA will put this one to bed with Gunter being able to have a glance over his shoulder and seeing nothing around him... and I don't mean cos he's run last! lol... OVER ACHIEVER x Legend's Moon x On The Thames
R6 Lto Latino Jet beat Jack Friday by 0.8l over 1600 but JF now has a huge swing in draw advantage and is 2kgs better off. He seemed to use plenty in the early stages getting to the head of affairs from the widest draw and must have claims from the 1 box with LJ now in 10. All that said, although JF battled hard that day I still have a nagging doubt as to whether he will see out the 1800 competitively. If he does and LJ meets some trouble in running then he has big claims. Plenty of today's rivals were well beaten that day but on some other form the likes of JF's stablemate Pontadera, Steady As A Rock and Taqdeer also have some right to a claim. The same can be said of Princess Chichibu but she may just have lost a little form recently and is up against the boys again. As is Wimoweh, she is up in class but as a result, and with the appie up, runs off a very light weight from a good draw and has been in good form recently. She will find this much tougher but can't be discounted (all the best Nik). There are chances but, at the end of the day, I keep coming back to LJ, he was running on really strong to beat JF near the line lto and would have been plenty clear shortly after the line. His overall recent form has been excellent and I thought 10/3 was decent value, at 5/2 it clearly becomes less appealing. Not a foregone conclusion but I still expect LJ to win. R1 on the, pops up occasionally, albeit over further, hard to fathom New Circle and R5 e/w on Taqdeer in the hope he decides to take part, his form over this kind of d had been on the up and 33/1 compared to some of the other prices available is value imo... though it could all be lost in the first 5 seconds... LATINO JET x Jack Friday x Pontedera
R7 Disappointed with the price, had hoped for bigger than 3s on Sartorius but now at 2s, not for me. Nevertheless, he was my original choice and is thus imo the most likely winner, he finished very nicely over 1400 on c debut lto and with the 2 box here I give him a major chance. That said there are plenty others who I thought could be competitive. Indeed there were only a couple I gave pretty much no chance to. Just a few who are worth considering at double figure prices... Ford Country took a while to justify the support he received on c debut but has come good in his last couple of runs. Cape Siskin has perhaps lost a little form but three runs back she was also finishing well when just 1.75l behind Sartorius, at around 25/1 he is worth a couple of rand e/w. If Spellbound brings his best Vaal sand to this c then possible. My e/w shout though will be Giant Strides. Poor record over the d and a big mass to shoulder but the stable might be coming back into some form and GS has been running well of late. The wide draw is of no consequence as he gets detached before finishing with a rattle anyway. If they don't get away too much early and he can conserve some energy then the step up in trip might just suit and worth noting that he beat Greatest hits by 0.8l more than Sartorius and they are effectively racing off the same weight difference... Sartorius x Giant Strides (e/w) x Ford Country
R8 Another competitive affair with plenty in with a shout. Talktothestars could well take to the sand and win but is not for me in this field and I don't see the price as any value at all. I could go on about the others but I am tiring rapidly so I'll just stick to my main shout which is Jedak. Risky as he is coming out of the maidens but he is taking on quite a few of the fairer sex here. He gets a good draw in 2 but is prone to somewhat slow starts. He was slow out when winning the maiden and seemed to over-race a little to get back in the race, something he achieved and simply kept going and was still finishing strongest of all. Hopefully he can get a better start and settle and the extra 200 should suit. Can't be a selection with total confidence as could make a case with many and have to be concerns about the start etc but for all that I like his chances... JEDAK x Caribbean Bay x Step It Up
R9 Again quite a few with chances. As two of my fingers have already dropped off... I'm with Yesan Star. Was a very good winner here last time he went this trip when he mowed them all down following a lousy start. Khumalo up. Not a foregone conclusion as some he beat that day had excuses and could improve but another where I can say I like his chances... YESAN STAR x Iron Dragon x Jimmijagga x Global Talk
E/W PATENT... R4 ENCHANTING LASS x R5 OVER ACHIEVER x R6 LATINO JET
E/w Double... R8 Jedak x R9 Yesan Star
And combined the above 5
E/w Patent... R3 Liquification x R4 Lady Arrow x R7 Giant Strides
Be(s)t of luck to all
And besides, fills up a bit of space on the Bingo threads lol...ZIETS... please ensure Enchanted Lass runs two good ones in a row for a change!!
R1 A number of young ladies taking on the boys here but perhaps there are more contenders than first meets the eye. Both Andy Cee and Bizzy Peg showed decent early form here over sprint and kiddie sprint distances while three others have beaten Imperial Party into silver, two of whom (by WF times) did so in exactly the same time, Zilnox and Lord Victorious, with Red Lunar the other. Although RL's margin of victory was the biggest, IP was slowly away that day and of the three, LV's success was the most convincing to my eye and the one who gave the impression he would appreciate the extra 200 the more. He also has the advantage of the 1 box. Of AC and BP, the former beat BP into a 3.25l 6th on the latter's debut but BP was poorly away that day and improved when winning nto despite not a great start again, turning a 1.5l defeat by the 4th into a 3.25l success over 1000. AC has a chance but of the two I prefer BP and I think she could prove the main danger... LORD VICTORIOUS x Bizzy Peg x Red Lunar
R2 Overheather and Rainbow Magic could both take to the surface and have chances if so. Of the two, I would probably favour OH and neither would have to be special to win. Of those with c experience, Wild Empress must be considered but I am far from convinced about the quality of that silver on c debut lto. Making Mischief is no star but has put in some reasonable efforts and with Lerena up makes some e/w appeal. Stablemate My Silver Fox disappointed over 1200 lto on the Vaal sand and returns to the 1000 where she put in a better effort in her penultimate run. If taking to this c then she would also have a chance. Poor field and no strong fancy. The support that has come for Overheather though could be significant and I'll row in with her... Overheather x Making Mischief x Rainbow Magic
R3 Another relatively poor looking field which looks open for a complete shock even though I can't make a case for one at huge odds. Eagles's Call is of some interest, seemingly the stable elect stepped up in trip. Not sure about stablemate 7th Lute over this d from a fairly wide draw. The only other three I think "should" have a chance are stablemates Liquification and Gibson plus Idealistic, the latter though, even with Lerena up, does look held by the two Visser runners. Of those two, Khumalo gets the ride on Gibson and one might therefore assume that this is the stable elect. At the prices though I would much rather have a go with Liquification e/w. Well beaten by the stablemate lto but that was over 1800 and Liquification was reported lame. They met in their two runs prior to that also, over 1400 and 1600 and there was very little between them... Gibson 0.1l ahead over 1600, Liquification 1.75l ahead over 1400. I just don't get 2/1 against 12/1, despite the jockey booking... LIQUIFICATION E/W x Gibson x Idealistic
R4 Small idiot of the day, Lady Arrow. Her recent form over further has not been spectacular and she has a wide draw again but 33/1 on a horse from a bang in form stable who has a decent record over c/d is worth a nibble imo... lto over this c/d she had both Enchanting Lass (5/1 2nd fav here) and Legend's Moon (beat Jewel Collection, 5/2 fav here by 0.75l lto) behind (Fleche d'Or ahead of them all). R1 on stablemate Shereya's Angel. National Symbol had a rough start and had to come from a fair way off the pace to beat Lightbeam on the line to win her maiden on c debut coming off a 19 week rest lto. The runner-up, also features here, did the form no harm when winning by 4l nto over 1600. Those fields did not look the strongest though and LB was beaten 7l by EL lto over c/d. Neither are discounted but NS is the much more likely imo, if breaking well should have a fair chance. Jewel Collection has been going the right way since a 41 week break and battled on well lto over c/d before being grabbed late. On 3rd run after that break she also must have a decent chance. That said, the "issue" I have is that her time was a full 3 seconds slower than that of EL who ran in the very next race. i think EL represents big value at around 5/1. She is not the most consistent and again has a wide draw to overcome (as does JC). Her last six runs have gone... good, bad, bad, good, bad, good... but, if she can reproduce that last effort then she is very much the one to beat in this field imo. Fleche d'Or and Action Belle were well beaten by JC lto but, for differing reasons, also have a squeak. I will have a saver on NS as there could be more to come and unlike others, she has has a decent draw... ENCHANTING LASS x National Symbol x LADY ARROW (e/w idiot)
R5 This is another race where I think the one I like is fair value. Razzle My Tazzle's last run here can be ignored as was reportedly not striding and her two previous c runs were fair efforts but nevertheless were in maiden company and her efforts on the Vaal sand, again though reasonable, were not world beaters. Lerena is up but I would rather look elsewhere. Its Magic made an ok c debut lto over 1200 but no better than that. She also has reasonable Vaal sand form at best imo and there must also be a question over the d so again a pass and watch for me. She is though seemingly stable elect over sand debutant Popular Blues who on breeding enters the equation but with Yeni up on the other, again I'll watch. Say Hi might take to the sand and from the 1 box will get R1 e/w but recent form is uninspiring and she returns from a 20 week break to make her sand debut. On The Thames is possibly better than the 4l defeat she suffered at the hands of Legend's Moon lto but although she gets a 2.5kg pull and Khumalo up, draw 13 will likely make life difficult especially with that rival drawn in 2. That must give LM a very good chance here and she ran on nicely lto to take the spoils on her first try at the d. There are thus plenty potentials and another race where a total shock is not impossible, perhaps one to tread carefully. Nevertheless, I do think one horse is potentially very good value here, though the previous race will need to be watched if possible as some of the same logic applies. Over Achiever fought gamely lto and was only just pipped by Enchanting Lass, my selection for R4. The time of that race was some 3 seconds quicker than the time run by LM. Unfortunately, OA is drawn wide in 12 but that is not necessarily a huge concern as she came from well off the pace in the early stages lto to challenge. Somewhat dangerous given the potentials but I am very hopeful OA will put this one to bed with Gunter being able to have a glance over his shoulder and seeing nothing around him... and I don't mean cos he's run last! lol... OVER ACHIEVER x Legend's Moon x On The Thames
R6 Lto Latino Jet beat Jack Friday by 0.8l over 1600 but JF now has a huge swing in draw advantage and is 2kgs better off. He seemed to use plenty in the early stages getting to the head of affairs from the widest draw and must have claims from the 1 box with LJ now in 10. All that said, although JF battled hard that day I still have a nagging doubt as to whether he will see out the 1800 competitively. If he does and LJ meets some trouble in running then he has big claims. Plenty of today's rivals were well beaten that day but on some other form the likes of JF's stablemate Pontadera, Steady As A Rock and Taqdeer also have some right to a claim. The same can be said of Princess Chichibu but she may just have lost a little form recently and is up against the boys again. As is Wimoweh, she is up in class but as a result, and with the appie up, runs off a very light weight from a good draw and has been in good form recently. She will find this much tougher but can't be discounted (all the best Nik). There are chances but, at the end of the day, I keep coming back to LJ, he was running on really strong to beat JF near the line lto and would have been plenty clear shortly after the line. His overall recent form has been excellent and I thought 10/3 was decent value, at 5/2 it clearly becomes less appealing. Not a foregone conclusion but I still expect LJ to win. R1 on the, pops up occasionally, albeit over further, hard to fathom New Circle and R5 e/w on Taqdeer in the hope he decides to take part, his form over this kind of d had been on the up and 33/1 compared to some of the other prices available is value imo... though it could all be lost in the first 5 seconds... LATINO JET x Jack Friday x Pontedera
R7 Disappointed with the price, had hoped for bigger than 3s on Sartorius but now at 2s, not for me. Nevertheless, he was my original choice and is thus imo the most likely winner, he finished very nicely over 1400 on c debut lto and with the 2 box here I give him a major chance. That said there are plenty others who I thought could be competitive. Indeed there were only a couple I gave pretty much no chance to. Just a few who are worth considering at double figure prices... Ford Country took a while to justify the support he received on c debut but has come good in his last couple of runs. Cape Siskin has perhaps lost a little form but three runs back she was also finishing well when just 1.75l behind Sartorius, at around 25/1 he is worth a couple of rand e/w. If Spellbound brings his best Vaal sand to this c then possible. My e/w shout though will be Giant Strides. Poor record over the d and a big mass to shoulder but the stable might be coming back into some form and GS has been running well of late. The wide draw is of no consequence as he gets detached before finishing with a rattle anyway. If they don't get away too much early and he can conserve some energy then the step up in trip might just suit and worth noting that he beat Greatest hits by 0.8l more than Sartorius and they are effectively racing off the same weight difference... Sartorius x Giant Strides (e/w) x Ford Country
R8 Another competitive affair with plenty in with a shout. Talktothestars could well take to the sand and win but is not for me in this field and I don't see the price as any value at all. I could go on about the others but I am tiring rapidly so I'll just stick to my main shout which is Jedak. Risky as he is coming out of the maidens but he is taking on quite a few of the fairer sex here. He gets a good draw in 2 but is prone to somewhat slow starts. He was slow out when winning the maiden and seemed to over-race a little to get back in the race, something he achieved and simply kept going and was still finishing strongest of all. Hopefully he can get a better start and settle and the extra 200 should suit. Can't be a selection with total confidence as could make a case with many and have to be concerns about the start etc but for all that I like his chances... JEDAK x Caribbean Bay x Step It Up
R9 Again quite a few with chances. As two of my fingers have already dropped off... I'm with Yesan Star. Was a very good winner here last time he went this trip when he mowed them all down following a lousy start. Khumalo up. Not a foregone conclusion as some he beat that day had excuses and could improve but another where I can say I like his chances... YESAN STAR x Iron Dragon x Jimmijagga x Global Talk
E/W PATENT... R4 ENCHANTING LASS x R5 OVER ACHIEVER x R6 LATINO JET
E/w Double... R8 Jedak x R9 Yesan Star
And combined the above 5
E/w Patent... R3 Liquification x R4 Lady Arrow x R7 Giant Strides
Be(s)t of luck to all
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Re: Re:Kimberley (Flamingo Park) Monday 29/06/15
9 years 11 months agoMerchy wrote: Lol Engels where do u find the time my man? But im not complaining hehe keep it up.
In between changing his avatar he finds time to jot a few nags down...
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