General Information as at 15 May 15:31
Weather Forecast: @08h00: Clear Skies, North Westerly 17kph Head/Crosswind;
Rain 24 Hours: Nil Rain 7 Days: Nil Pen Reading: 22
Irrigation 24 Hours: Nil Irrigation 7 Days: 24mm Track Cond.: Good
False Rail Pos.: 4m backstraight to 5.5m on the bend with a 5.5m spur @ 500m mark
Nothing I really like strongly today but a few to think about including in whatever perhaps...
R3 Post Grad. Though well beaten in both, he has faced some comparatively half-decent fields in his last two turf runs and with a much better draw than many of the more fancied ones, at around 40s he is worth consideration.
R4 Eina could well be the right one (one of my fav SA expressions! not as good as "buy a donkey" of course and, being English, when I hear "my child" in Afrikaans I still do a double-look of shock/horror!! :ohmy: lol but I digress) but, she is a little short in the market for me from that draw, Polar Secret worth a look despite the draw but again I would want a bigger price to chance it, Badger's Belle with Striker up from the 1 box would be an inclusion in everything for me. The one I have tentatively included in some accies though is I Have A Dream. She will have to start better than lto but, I think her penultimate run, second of career, was a fair effort from a very poor draw and she finished, albeit different distances, closer to Mamasita than Chalcedony subsequently did, the latter having a very bad draw here but is half the price of IHAD.
R5 Need to be quicker! lol I give Glitter Alley a squeak despite the break, has run well from a rest before and has three silvers from 4 c runs, yet to place at the d though. Shame about the draw but the one I think is over-priced here is Amber Sail. Ignore the last two on sand and her recent turf runs are not so bad. On runs with Ultimate Tiger, she has a couple of lengths to find with Beach In A Bottle but also has a swing in the weights to compensate and when meeting UT, AS was reported as not striding. BIAB is fav here and 1/10th of the price, though admittedly has the huge advantage of the 1 box.
R7 I give Matsuri a chance from the 2 box and I see she has halved in price but the stable form is a big concern for me. In giving that one a chance though then Main Sunday must come into calculations, finished just in front of Matsuri when they last met over c/d and is now 2.5kgs better off. She remains around 20s to Matsuri's 10s. If I remember rightly, on collateral, there is no way either should be double figures compared to some of those much shorter in the market.
R8 Good luck to Oscar and think he should win. Two that might surprise though are Bermuda Bowl who showed plenty of improvement with the blinkers lto and Imperial Empress who, though behind BB that day, may prefer the extra more. IE finished closer to RTD than she did to BB and other collateral again implies that possibly BB (20s) and IE (16s) are decent value.
R9 It is a very poor field so I think Arctic Route from the 2 box could represent some value. Comes off a rest but has run ok off them previously and though she probably prefers further, in this field with the stable in form, if she can utilise the draw then she could well be competitive at around 20s.
What looks another tough card (they all do of late) some thoughts:
R3 Odd Rob and high drama the obvious inclusions, I would also include heptagon though, the former two have awkward barriers whilst H draws 2 and still has further scope for improvement should be fit and ready drew wide on his peak run after the break. 12/1 maybe decent value.
R4 Eina the obvious inclusion however others to include: Tenderwood as well as my nibbling fancy Penny for Jenny(14/1) first time she gets a single figure draw (3) so may be better than rated. Can't take too much from her previous efforts but should appreciate the step up in trip and like Eina still has lots of scope for improvement.
R5 Beach in a bottle and Excalivar the obvious inclusions, both drawn exceptionally and could fight things out. I have doubts whether E will see out the trip though so my preference is for the former. Others to include: Glitter alley only unplaced on the course once in 4 attempts and that was a 2.25l 4th. Returns from a break but at 16/1 can't get hurt.
R6 Agree with others sentiments that Fire wheel has a very realistic chance and I make her my first selection. Others to include: She's a looker two silvers in two c/d runs and 2/2 in the money with Stryker aboard. Another possibly to include is Bright Bronte who seems over his problems and has produced some very nice efforts of late and may still be ahead of the handicapper.
R7 One of the toughest of the card imo however I think I may have found the value at 10/1 on Inkolo. Stable jock gets off soft sand whom he won on last time to ride. If ever a horse is unfortunate with draws its Inkolo. Does not have terrible form considering the terrible draws and possibly running over too far when trying 1800, it's clear her best form is over 1450-1600 when she gets a draw. Today she gets it and 10/1 I feel is far too big a price. Others to include: Raging princess since January has dropped 10 points in the ratings and rightly so because she's been disappointing but could take advantage today.
R8 The three year olds numbers 1,2&5 all have good chances, preference for oscars RTD however two older horses at prices of 10/1 and 16/1 will make them work. Casual as well as Imperial Empress strike me of value and I feel will appreciate the step up in trip.
R9 A competitive close to a competitive day. Lerena has had a habit of closing off Gauteng meetings of late and it wouldn't surprise me if that's the case again. I fancied Brightnumberfour lto having second run after a rest and wasn't disgraced, now has peak run and with the scratching so comes into draw 6 last time over the c/d Lerena partnered her to a 1.50l 4th to delighted which is not a bad effort. Others to include: 3,6,8,9,10,11&12.
Thanks for the summaries - just shows how competitive this card is - only one that I would also mention is Torrelavega in the last - but small percentages are the order of the day for me :huh:
There are two Ideal Worlds running in the second - included both in your play - there are a few more running from that sire today that should be included.I do like BADGER`S BELLE today - change from work rider to STRIKER if anybody can improve her he can though I see he likes EINA to win
Topic Author
