How do you validate a betting system?

A question for the stats gurus on the forum. What is a large enough sample size before we can draw any conclusions on our betting system? What kind of variance can we expect? What is the longest losing streak and winning streak we can expect?

Heres a link I found that covers some aspects of this topic

www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=532...ng+systems&sub=&day=

Lucky_Dude wrote: Heres a link I found that covers some aspects of this topic

www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=532...ng+systems&sub=&day=

A perfect sample size for statisticians is when the mean, median and the mode all approximate each other. From a personal point of view I exclude the mode.

What kind of variance can you expect? Add (or subtract depending what you want to do) one-half of the standard deviation to the mean (average).

I have implemented a version of DRI and SRI in my system.

www.flatstats.co.uk/horse-racing-system/...i-system-report.html

How long shld the winning/losing streak be? How long should a piece of string be? Any length which tolerates the feasability of your Return of Investment? What should you ROI be? Anything that beats your most expensive interest on a debt of yours plus a commission for your time.

My sixpence worth

Betting systems? dont get me fucking started

There has been more skelms involving betting systems than any other

Actually its not that hard to work out.

1: if it can't show a profit to a LEVEL stake it will ultimately fail
2: nothing that happens in the past has any bearing on the future

Point 2 is subjective, you can flip tails 10000 in a row and the odds for it being tails again are still even money, with horses its slightly different because clearly some horses are better than others BUT if you can't get your "system" to return profit to a level stake then there WILL be times when

1: your losing streak is so long you can't sustain it with your bank balance
2: you have an unlimited bank balance BUT can't get on

I think the hardest part of using a system is sticking to it religiously while it is performing within parameters. But no system will work forever, so monitoring knowing when to revise it or get out. It is so easy to blow your narrow profits with a few ad-hoc bets.

Hermit wrote: I have implemented a version of DRI and SRI in my system.

www.flatstats.co.uk/horse-racing-system/...i-system-report.html

Hi Hermit, I'm not sure I get this. Can you apply these two measures to my recent stats and tell me if they are a decent system. Here are my plays for the new system per betting unit...

Date Track Race Horse Jock SP Result RunBal

2015-03-07 TurfStand 6 MOGOK MASTER Gunter Wrogemann 2 -1 -1
2015-03-08 GreyTurf 3 ROY'S GUARDIAN Alec Forbes 1.8 -1 -2
2015-03-08 GreyPoly 7 PRINCE OF MAGIC Anthony Delpech 1.8 1.8 -0.2
2015-03-14 TurfInner 6 SUPERTUBE (AUS) Piere Strydom 3 -1 -1.2
2015-03-14 TurfInner 7 BOUCLETTE TOP (ARG) Weichong Marwing 1.8 1.8 0.6
2015-03-14 TurfInner 8 GASOLINE (AUS) Weichong Marwing 1.25 -1 -0.4
2015-03-18 FairPoly 1 WELL INFORMED Greg Cheyne 0.6 0.6 0.2
2015-03-19 TurfInner 1 ENDEARING Chamu Mabaya 0.25 0.25 0.45
2015-03-19 TurfInner 9 EMERALD MACKAY Weichong Marwing 0.33 -1 -0.55
2015-03-21 TurfInner 8 ARCETRI PINK (AUS) Gavin Lerena 1.1 1.1 0.55
2015-03-22 Kenilworth 2 JET AIR Grant Van Niekerk 1.4 1.4 1.95
2015-03-22 Kenilworth 5 WHAT A MISSION (AUS) Bernard Fayd'Herbe 1.3 1.3 3.25
2015-03-22 Kenilworth 8 A TIME TO KILL Grant Van Niekerk 2 -1 2.25
2015-03-24 VaalSand 3 TRIP TEASE Piere Strydom 0.6 0.6 2.85
2015-03-27 FairPoly 4 IDEAL BLOOM Greg Cheyne 1.2 1.2 4.05
2015-03-27 GreyPoly 7 SUPREME DYNASTY Sean Cormack 1 1 5.05
2015-03-27 GreyPoly 8 FLEETFOX Anton Marcus 0.3 -1 4.05
2015-03-28 TurfStand 6 LOUIS THE KING Piere Strydom 1.3 -1 3.05
2015-03-28 TurfStand 9 CARRY ON ALICE S'Manga Khumalo 1.7 1.7 4.75
2015-03-29 Scottsville 4 CAPTAIN OF ALL Sean Cormack 0.33 0.33 5.08
2015-03-30 Flamingo 3 LATINO'S JET Muzi Yeni 0.75 -1 4.08
2015-03-30 Flamingo 6 ALL THE BIDS Fanie Chambers 0.85 -1 3.08


As you can see I've had 22 plays for a 3.08 unit profit....

SPOT ON Easy and no other way...

You can do all these orher wonderful systems out there but if you don't show a profit on Level Stakes you ultimately fail... Martingale for instance is a lot of fun and we run it for stats purposes but tongue in cheek fun and lucky to show huge profits on it, however no one has an unlimited bankroll so therefore it will eventually ultimately fail when luck runs out...

Imo you have to show huge growth a year on level stakes otherwise on a bad cycle all will be lost and all hard work down the draim...but thats just an opinion it is very doable with discipline being the key...

Loopy,

The top gamblers in the world look for a 8-15% return per year. MOST people on here will boast of higher %'s but if they do then they are not being truthful.

Most of the world's top punters NEED the rebates they get from

tote and some bookies to swing the % into profit. this is if you are doing it as a business.

I am sure there are 1 or 2 guys on here that show a profit every year BUT i would guess that profit is NOT sufficient to live the life on so they have jobs.

should they choose to go full time then the %'s drop and the turnover rises....

What you can never do is be in a position of the "recovery" being so much greater than the profit.....
ie: staking £10 000 to recover £1000 because the losing run will invariably continue that day and your next bet will be to try and recover £11 000

Funnily enough the thing punters moan on here about which is the MAD TOTE payouts is where the money is.

example:
race 1
Frankel
Miss Madonna
Seeking the Sun
Happy valentine
Kushkina
readallaboutit
skytwelve
runforest

so we have a 8 horse field and frankly it looks like Frankel will win his odds are

1/100 to win

the tote will be paying out R1-00 a place BUT to me because i have a deal with the tote ill be getting R1-065 a place

of course if he runs unplaced the other horses place odds shoot through the stratosphere....