Greyville 22 Feb

neigh wrote: TN, lets hope I can be raving later today ! He is well and I feel is looking for further now. Dont leave him out of your plays and exotic's today.

KING NEPTUNE, looks like he is going for the kill

Could be ENTIRELY wrong!

Apologies for the waffle, don't read it if you don't want to! lol Selections summarised at the bottom for the hard of reading!

There is a fair amount in races 2, 3 and 4 based around the form (and perhaps collateral form of previous runs) on the runs behind Respect The Bay. I am not convinced that form line is particularly strong and perhaps is made to look better by the involvement of Tapaway in collateral.

As such, at the prices, I'd like to take the chance that there are others are at bigger prices who perhaps have an equal chance based on the collateral.

My thought process is based on the form in R2 of Misty Power. it seems to be the perception from the market and "publication" predictions that when he ran close up behind RTB lto, when a few of the seemingly stronger fancies here also went close, that this was a much improved run by MP. Possibly, but if you look back to August and the run to Big King, Misty Power was only 2.5l behind High Maintenance. In the run lto, MP was 7.5kgs better off with HM and imo it is the swing in weights that brings them closer together. There has thus been no real improvement from MP and the two are relatively closely matched. With the weights not changed here it could also be argued that MP, with the exchange in potential draw advantage, may also have the edge over Corresolve.

This therefore makes the Big King formline a possible useful guide and certainly, I would be chancing MP around 10s before HM and Corresolve, around 11/4 and 15/8 respectively.

But, in demonstrating that the BK formline may be just as revealing as the RAB form line then, there are others who must come here with a fair chance, one of which is at huge odds. Latino Heat was on debut that day and finished 0.1l ahead of HM and has a 4kg pull in his favour. Receiving the same pull in the weights, and it was only his second career start, Toughy Smith finished just infront of both, 0.15l and 0.25l respectively. On that basis, at 6/1 and 66/1, I would much rather include LH and TS. Three runs back. over 1200, TS was about 5l ahead of LH when well beaten by Bengal Boy.

LH was well behind (5.7l) Corresolve three runs back (King Jay only 0.55l behind Corresolve) but that was on the turf over 1200 and LH was returning from an 11 week break. That run though also puts KJ fairly closely matched with Corresolve and could be another positive for TS... KJ was beaten 1.5l by Bob The Dog over 1200 here back in October while TS finished 0.75l behind BTD three runs back (possible BTD improved a lot nto though).

Although on collateral Long Walk looks held by King Jay, I still give him a chance. It could of course have been false money etc but this one was backed from 40s into 7s on debut but disappointed and has continued to do so. But, on 2nd run after a 29 week rest, showed plenty of improvement lto and if continuing to progress could be involved. Subsequent to writing this it seems LW has again come in for outsider support.

I have had e/ws on Toughy Smith and Long Walk and will build trifectas/quartets around them.

In R3 there are similar collateral lines which could question Dark Roses's chances (nor do I particularly want to as Shrek has some involvement with DR all the best bud). I can't find much to oppose DR though but I will have a saver on Midanswer who, though on poly debut and yet to place in his two turf runs, has met some comparatively decent fields. Westerly Wind seems much better value than Varlotone based on their last runs.

The chances of many in R4 also centre around the Respect The Bay form line. Again, I am going to look past it and consequently, without going into it all as I have written more than enough for something which may be barking up totally the wrong tree! lol but I have done e/ws on Mystery Leader and San Diego and again trifectas and quartets will be worked around those two. If my thought process is proved entirely wrong in R2 then that would obviously have some affect on the thought processes for R4.

R2 Toughy Smith e/w, Long Walk e/w
R3 Dark Rose x Midanswer x Westerley Wind
R4 Mystery Leader e/w, San Diego e/w
R5 Eddie Sweat
R6 Lake Arthur
R7 Candy Moon
R8 African Dream (small e/w Lady Carter)

Be(s)t of luck to all

Interbet has posted that the Fever Tree Handicap and race 7 have been abandoned but the betting on all the other races as suspended.

Anyone here think there is value in VARIABLE PITCH x DARK ROSE x AFRICAN DREAM - I took some 7/2, LAKE ARTHUR outright for my value bet at 7/2. Now that I've spent a large wager on the treble I'm starting to think that GOOD TEAM could be the right one :dry:

Oh well, let's see what happens, too late now anyways!

We are very hopeful that Dark Rose can crack her maiden today. She is very well and put up a good gallop this week. She is meeting the right kind of field and would be very dissapointed if she didn't win today.

Have a profitable day.

@Shrek...all the best...

shrek wrote: We are very hopeful that Dark Rose can crack her maiden today. She is very well and put up a good gallop this week. She is meeting the right kind of field and would be very dissapointed if she didn't win today.

Have a profitable day.

Thanks shrek, I hope she comes for you! Best of luck!!!

Who wants a piece of APPLE

Dark Abbot should love this extra step up in trip.bred for it.should be hard to beat.last time ran on from stone last and was slow away

Eddie sweat looks the deal.

Dean321 wrote: Eddie sweat looks the deal.

what a ride. Andrew and Karl could come for lessons. Cnc where da best jock?

GUYS LOAD ON TUSCAN, jock Athandiwe said he's expecting a win