Turffontein Tuesday

Discuss the card belwow

My treble for the day is R1 no1 R2 no7 R3 no13 they are all very thin but I am sure we can buy some money.

General Information as at 19 January 16:35
Weather Forecast: @08h00: P/Cloudy 30% ch.T/showers.T:13-25.Light NW bec. Southerly, Head/cross;
Rain 24 Hours: Nil Rain 7 Days: 41.4 mm Pen Reading: 21
Irrigation 24 Hours: Irrigation 7 Days: Track Cond.: Good
False Rail Pos.: 3m on the back str to 4.5m on bend with 4.5m spur at 500m mark

Bipot: 1-7-13--2,6-2,7,8-1,2.14
Have a lovely day.

Hawker Hurricane 7/1 :ohmy:

An interesting runner for me today comes up in Race 6. Arkansas ran 2 lengths behind Shadow of his Smile receiving only 3kg's considering there is a 39 MR difference he would have run well above his rating. He was allowed to set his own pace that day so the result could flatter him but a repeat of that run will see him go close when you consider he receives 9kg's from Hawaiian Sun who IMO is not as good as Shadow of his Smile. If allowed to dictate the pace with the 51kg's on his back he could be very hard to peg back. The 11/2 available on BW on Arkansas looks great value and I expect him to go close.

Wisdom Stone in the 4th won her last run in a quicker time that Shadow of his Smile's race mentioned above. Weichong has a 3 from 3 record with her and could easily make all again. Amber Orchid, with the weight turnaround and Dream Galaxy look the dangers.

Shadow of his Smile now that his stable mate is out looks the right one here. He is consistent and improving nicely with racing. He is not taking on the strongest field here and I expect him to follow up here.

I will be taking a patent on the 3 horses mentioned above.

Play well.

Best bet for the day is Bernadine e/w in the 4th @6/1. 12/10 on a place is huge given her consistency and draw. Think she's well weighted against some of her rival here and the extra distance is exactly what she needs to get up this time out. Wisdom stone has been given some big penalties for the last two wins and think the handicapper has caught up now.

Also think Endearing and Illuminati are good e/w bets. Don't like bilateral today, wasn't impressed with the comeback run but don't have another fancy so will sit that one out.

Hi Guys,

I don't post too often (I'm a lightie and intimidated by you guys : ) but today in Race 6 I really like double Bind for an EW shot. Last night was priced at 20/1 but ill be surprised if that has not been claimed yet. Double bind had decent form before running one bad race and then improving in a race against a field that was a little stronger than today's. Unless I am missing something the 20/1 price doesn't make sense. Have a great days punting

Thanks shrek - well put

Some thoughts from me:

R2: Bilateral the obvious one on ratings, but the 1450 on the inside track is not in her favor imo - too short in the betting for me, so worth opposing - but with what? Nothing in the ratings between Captain Aldo, Morpheus and Tee Jay Ar - CA has the worst draw of the 3, but could be worth a small each way wager at the odds - Mr Mulliiner comes from a stable that had 2 winners and 2 close seconds on Saturday - so not to be ignored either.

R3: Endearing has a lot in her favor and looks sure to find the first 3. Off the Mark is another from the Tarry assembly line and can't be ignored; Sensible Lover put up a good debut, but being out of a staying mare, could find the 1450 still on the short side; Tutta Magee should also be thereabouts and Ladies Club from a form stable with Striker carded to ride should improve on her poor second run - boxing those 5 (or floating Endearing) the right way to go imo

R4: I think this is very competitive and not one of the runners look completely out of it. Bernadine has a lot going for her, but still Bling is on the stable mate, so could be the preferred runner from the stable; Wisdom Stone got a soft lead last time imo and I still think she is at best over 1400 and may not be able to set her own pace today; I would be looking for the upset and include runners like Lertasha (surely better than last few efforts), Fortitude (beaten a shd in a Conditions race last time), London and even Looker

R5: Interesting; Shadow ofhis Smile ran way below his rating last time and still managed to win easily; his penultimate a much better effort imo, so if repeating that run today looks hard to oppose; most of the others seems in their place or is running over the wrong trip (Kingston Mines) - the danger could be Laurie's Gold (ran close to Met runner Johnny Rockets in the Cape, has it's 2nd run in Gauteng and Bling in the saddle)

R6: I think Hawaiian Sun is hard to beat here - ran out of racecourse last time so should prefer the 1600 now - Tarry/Bling has been in great form and has pole position - 3/1 looks very generous imo; Prince of Orange was hard pressed for his last win and got 5 points for it - probably 2nd best here - I'm not convinced about the form of Arkansas - but he did run to a 69 last time on my ratings - so needs inclusion in bigger perms

R7: Another competitive handicap - this time for the fillies and mares; Maria Theresa was backed as if she was the only horse in the race last time - but that race was abandoned - I think she has an easier task today and deserves to be favorite; Tiger Flame steps up another 200 m in distance, should be another competitive ride for Bling on the day - she has finished more than 5 lengths in front of Miss Rambo (who in turn beat Hawker Hunter when winning her maiden) behind Sunday's Sister; Main Sunday likes this track but being out of sprinting mare, the 2200 may be a touch far - best roughie for me Withbatedbreath - not far behind Maria Theresa in the run to Banbury when slow away and squeezed out and is better off at the weights today

R8: Poor maiden to finish; Uletide looks to be improving with racing and could get it right in this weak field, Cool Fantasy looks moderate, but must have chance here; talk on the First Call show this morning that Island Bliss from the Alexander yard could be the roughie.

Enjoy

Alexander stable:
Mr MULLINER and Commodore Al{light mass} e/w
Other runners include in the exotics.

If Sensible Lover doesn't win today ,I will have to reassess(in fact scrap) the form of the 30/12/14,and particularly the rating of Unparralleled's run!

I think BILATERAL is too short - Fancy TEE JAY AR before her - I would take a chance and lay this