Kenilworth Wednesday

Discuss the card below

Princess Elanor @9/2 e/w. Huge runner imo

General Information as at 13 January 15:34
Weather Forecast: @08h00: Partly cloudy, S/E Headwind;
Rain 24 Hours: Nil Rain 7 Days: Nil Pen Reading: 22
Irrigation 24 Hours: Nil Irrigation 7 Days: 20mm Track Cond.: Good
False Rail Pos.: 2m out from 1800m with a 7m spur @ 600m (summer)

The missing link wrote: Princess Elanor @9/2 e/w. Huge runner imo

TML I think the key to this race is the respective runs of De Sol A Sol (9/2), Princess Eleanor (9/2) and Speedy Chestnut (33/10) to Saint Sophia.

De Sol A Sol carried level weights (60.0kgs) and finished 2.25 lengths behind SS. Last time out I think a slow run race and the draw accounted for this horse not getting into the race. The betting would suggest she was fancied and the run before that, she was punted to beat SS.

Princess Eleanor (57.5kgs) received 2.5kgs and ran 9.65 lengths behind SS. I think it's fair to say this horse was a shock winner last time out (20/1), and she showed no form in her previous four runs prior. It's difficult to say whether she can repeat that last effort because the stable didn't make an equipment or tactical change which would explain that winning performance, except for the weight advantage that day.

Speedy Chestnut (54.5kgs) received 5.5kgs and ran 0.30 behind SS. I am hoping from a good draw, this horse or Zante sets a decent gallop which could play into the hands of Domeyer and De Sol A Sol. Tricky race though.

Shocked to see the stablemate supported against Carmina, must be catching pigeons

bayern wrote:

The missing link wrote: Princess Elanor @9/2 e/w. Huge runner imo

TML I think the key to this race is the respective runs of De Sol A Sol (9/2), Princess Eleanor (9/2) and Speedy Chestnut (33/10) to Saint Sophia.

De Sol A Sol carried level weights (60.0kgs) and finished 2.25 lengths behind SS. Last time out I think a slow run race and the draw accounted for this horse not getting into the race. The betting would suggest she was fancied and the run before that, she was punted to beat SS.

Princess Eleanor (57.5kgs) received 2.5kgs and ran 9.65 lengths behind SS. I think it's fair to say this horse was a shock winner last time out (20/1), and she showed no form in her previous four runs prior. It's difficult to say whether she can repeat that last effort because the stable didn't make an equipment or tactical change which would explain that winning performance, except for the weight advantage that day.

Speedy Chestnut (54.5kgs) received 5.5kgs and ran 0.30 behind SS. I am hoping from a good draw, this horse or Zante sets a decent gallop which could play into the hands of Domeyer and De Sol A Sol. Tricky race though.

Looking at the SS formlines there is no doubt that princess eleanor is beaten hands down but this ones for me is not as simple as that. Princess eleanor was not a shock winner for the man who knows whats actually happening, Fourie said in the post race interview that Bass, in no uncertain terms, said this horse is going to win the race. The connections also were told that she was going to run a big race. The pre race comment from the stable to the public before that last run was:

'She draws well here, and reverts back to her best trip. She is due a good run after some valid excuses in her last few starts. She has been prepped well for this race and we think she will run accordingly and could represent some value in this race.'

From what I can make of that is that the run behind SS there were some issues with the horse and wasn't running to her potential so its tricky to compare using that formline. That last run was very good and beat some decent sorts imo. Moonsung magic is no mug and obviously there was all the hype about the Crawford horse that was soundly beaten. The comment for this race for the stable is:

'She won very smartly last week and it wouldn’t surprise us to see her win again on Wednesday as she took her last run very well.'

If there's one thing I've learnt in the last year or so is that Ramsden and Bass are rarely wrong about their horses and maybe I'm just a groupie but listening to their comments have been very profitable for me so I'm happy to have a crack at those odds from what I saw in her last run against stronger, the fact the Bass said their were genuine excuses for the run to SS and the confidence of the stable. This is racing though so lets see what happens tomorrow. Princess Eleanor vs De Sol a Sol for bragging rights, cough cough trip to heaven

If R6 be a discussion point then let me add by 2 rands worth Seems to me though to be the most competitive race on the card, possibly only rivalled by the last.

Anyway, with sincere apologies to TN who will be in a deep slumber shortly...

I certainly think Princess Eleanor is in with a major chance as TML has most eloquently set out Bass seemed to indicate she was a strong contender lto, sufficient for me to have a small interest. She certainly finished very nicely in that run so could be even stronger over the extra 200.

De Sol A Sol's maiden win was over a weak field imo (I remember cos I wrote one of these infamous essays on the race lol) and I don't think the field when she was beaten by Saint Sophia was very strong either. That said, she was 2.75l behind Star of Paris lto, SoP has beaten Moonsong Magic 0.4l who in turn was beaten 1l by PE lto. Through those lines it could be argued DSAS would finish 3.35l behind PE but there is a 7.5kg swing, if my calcs are correct, in DSAS's favour. I don't fancy her but she can't be discounted with that swing in the weights if the form lines are to be taken at face value.

I marginally prefer Little Bear to Zante, although the latter beat LB by 3.5l when winning her maiden, LB was on 2nd run after a rest and nto beat Evoke Emotion by 0.75l, EE had also run 2nd in Zante's success going down 1l. Neither can be discounted (EE won nto) but coming out of the maidens I think they are both likely to find a couple stronger.

Speedy Chestnut is a much more likely challenger imo. Consistent form and, though it could probably have been more, was only beaten 2.5l by the relatively useful Indaba 3 runs back (1600). SC finished nicely despite Mr Kirby giving the "bumpiest" ride I can ever remember seeing lol and perhaps more significantly, off a 21 week rest. Indaba finished just over 5l ahead of Elusive Stars in a Group 3 nto (1800) while ES, from a much worse draw, was 2.75l behind Princess E lto (1600). That would leave PE marginally ahead of SC but the latter gets a 2.5kg weight swing, Cormack up and should be fitter having had 2 further runs since the Indaba defeat. On that it looks likely to be very close between the two.

But, now for the winner lol Particularly at the prices, I like Zakuska. She has improved a lot in the last few months and although she finished 1.25l behind Speedy C in her penultimate outing she gets a 1kg pull thanks to the appie claim. She was ridden that day by Ashby but Goomany is on board here under whom she has a gold and a silver in his 2 rides. The gold came lto when imo she showed some improvement with the blinkers applied and that improvement may be enough here with GG aboard to reverse the form with SC. With the latter seemingly very closely matched with PE, it could thus see Zakuska in the winner's box. She does have a fairly wide draw of 9 to overcome but the draws are very similar to the last run against SC.

Don't discount Cosmonauta shocking again, she looks well held by Zakuska lto but was baulked that day and sprang the surprise in her penultimate run with Zakuska over 4l back, though the latter was reportedly not striding that day (Pistaccho was 0.8l behind Cos when Cos won but Zakusha turned that over comfortably lto with a 2.25l defeat of Pist).

if one of the others win... what a waste of time this was! lol

Plenty options but my take... Zakuska x Speedy Chestnut x Princess Eleanor

I've finished now, someone wake TN up lol

Feck guys are making this race out to be a real mine field, all valid points and look forward to the race! If there's one thing I can just say about using the SoP formlines, and I know I've mentioned on here before when talking about Moonsung Magic is that she was seriously impeded in that race to SoP and would have won comfortably imo if she wasn't. I have that race in my book as a 1l win to Moonsung magic which makes it a lot closer. Moonsung magic showed in her next two races how good she is when things go her way and that beating Princess Eleanor gave her was very big and comfortable imo and a repeat of that performance sees her over the finish line first here. Also like the jockey up here compared to DSAS and Zakuska but that's me done now and keen to see the race.

Agree with you Englander-wouldn't be looking to that race as an opportunity as such , however , on the basis of chances vs prices there is no doubt in my book that the value lies with Zakuska!

I wouldnt just Banker Upper Echelon today,she has looked to have ability mant time but looks a horse they are not sure of a trip

Not riding : X Carstens ( Injury) T Welsh Serenam
General Information as at 14 January 10:28
Weather Forecast: @08h00: Clear skies, no wind;
Rain 24 Hours: Nil Rain 7 Days: Nil Pen Reading: 22
Irrigation 24 Hours: Nil Irrigation 7 Days: 20mm Track Cond.: Good
False Rail Pos.: 2m out from 1800m with a 7m spur @ 600m (summer)

Bob Brogan wrote: I wouldnt just Banker Upper Echelon today,she has looked to have ability mant time but looks a horse they are not sure of a trip

stable seems to be firing blanks. I will side with fear nothing.