Turffontein Night Racing Tuesday 28/10/2014

Best Bet Race 6 - 13 She's a Looker 25/1

Leseding wrote: Best Bet Race 6 - 13 She's a Looker 25/1

Admire your confidence.
Would have to grow wings to beat to beat Mohave Princess in a very open race.

Leseding wrote: Best Bet Race 6 - 13 She's a Looker 25/1

If I may ask, how did you arrive at that conclusion - you tip a best bet 25/1, everyone would stop posting waiting for your next tip. So, let's hear it, you may even convince me to speculate a few bob.

Taking my chances with the double :-

Master Sabina X Pine Princess

Master Sabina does appear very well in at the weights with the entire field bar #1. Granted MS is returning from a break and in all probability is prepping for bigger things, he should carry too many guns for this field, 33/10 is a steal, wait a little longer as he appears to be drifting. Represents MY best bet on the card.

Not as confident with Pine Princess, but she does look above average.

Race 6 - 13 She's a Looker

On 13/07/2014 Strydom rode it to win over the course and distance.

On 09/08/2014 Strydom rode it to win over the course and distance.

On 16/10/2014 with Sampson riding, over the course and distance, it made up nearly 3 lengths over the last 400 m. It lost by 0.75 lengths to Alascan Maiden.

A very good run !

Sampson retains the ride. He comes down from 58 Kgs to 52 Kgs.

Barend has only 3 horses. Sampson rides 2 (His only 2 rides for the day), and Strydom rides Tzigane in Race 4.

I don't think Tzigane can beat Alboran Sea in Race 4.

The best of Sampson's rides is She's a Looker. Go for It !!

Classic Illusion at Draw 3 has the best draw, but no form.

Mohave Princess on 04/10/2014 drifted from 16/1 to 33/1. In its previous race, it drifted from 12/1 to 20/1. Not my idea of a betting proposition.

The only danger might be Mr. Zackey for Joe Soma with an even bigger surprise on Rodeo Sioux.

No scientific formulas were used in the calculation of this forecast.

Just straight logic, gut feel and the "School Fees", I have paid over the years !

Sampson has ridden quite a few "Good" winners for Barend Botes.

Leseding wrote: Race 6 - 13 She's a Looker

On 13/07/2014 Strydom rode it to win over the course and distance.

On 09/08/2014 Strydom rode it to win over the course and distance.

On 16/10/2014 with Sampson riding, over the course and distance, it made up nearly 3 lengths over the last 400 m. It lost by 0.75 lengths to Alascan Maiden.

A very good run !

Sampson retains the ride. He comes down from 58 Kgs to 52 Kgs.

The best of Sampson's rides is She's a Looker. Go for It !!

Sampson has ridden quite a few "Good" winners for Barend Botes.

I hope She's A Looker arrives for you.

bayern wrote:

Leseding wrote: Race 6 - 13 She's a Looker

On 13/07/2014 Strydom rode it to win over the course and distance.

On 09/08/2014 Strydom rode it to win over the course and distance.

On 16/10/2014 with Sampson riding, over the course and distance, it made up nearly 3 lengths over the last 400 m. It lost by 0.75 lengths to Alascan Maiden.

A very good run !

Sampson retains the ride. He comes down from 58 Kgs to 52 Kgs.

The best of Sampson's rides is She's a Looker. Go for It !!

Sampson has ridden quite a few "Good" winners for Barend Botes.

I hope She's A Looker arrives for you.

Sorry Bayern what do you think of Everest's 1800m time of 100.92

Sorry Bayern what do you think of Everest's 1800m time of 100.92[/quote]

Colours, I personally, am not a big believer in times per se. There are many reasons/variables when assessing the race's overall time. Digressing a bit, have you ever noticed, on the Highveld, the fastest times are set during the winter when the tracks are firmer/harder and running quicker? You might say what about 400m to finish then? Again, the first 1200m or more could have been run at a snail's pace and then turned into a sprint for the line, in these scenarios, the winner's time in the majority of cases is slower than the class average, not all the time, but most of the time. In a nutshell, I don't take times seriously, especially beyond the sprints.

Getting back to Everest's above time, that is some 8 seconds faster than the course record (according to Winning Form), are you sure that wasn't over 1600m, which would indicate a slow run 1600m time. I don't have a book, just looking online.

Regards tomorrow's race, Everest should be carrying 56.5 off that MR in relation to the MR 104 of Master Sabina's. On top of that, MS has won 2 more races than Everest. Under the race conditions, it's hard to see Everest finish ahead of Master Sabina, but horses don't run on paper as we know.

On the same day Half The Deficit ran the same distance and his time was 112,80
We know HTD has similar ability to Master Sabina but its the only issue i have from agreeing apart from PS

Best bet race 5 : J'S OUTSIDER

Race 6: ENCHANTED SILK e/w


A complete outsider could be in race 7: ABBOTTSBURY 33/1

colors wrote: On the same day Half The Deficit ran the same distance and his time was 112,80
We know HTD has similar ability to Master Sabina but its the only issue i have from agreeing apart from PS

Colours, just looked up the race you referring too. In a way it supports what I'm trying to convey. The race you referring to, the horse that finished last in the Earl Of Derby race was some 10 seconds faster than Captain Lars's winning time - the race in which Halve The Deficit ran. It's obvious in the Cpt Lars race, they went much, much slower, than the 3 year old race on the same day. That was not a true run race, I'd ignore those times totally. It's not a true reflection and that's the reason one must be careful when comparing times. In the Computaform they publish from time to time, something called track variants (I think that's what it's called), but the table explains wind and going adjustments per second corrections. I have no clue if anyone knows how to apply/interpret that, I for one have no clue - maybe that's how speed ratings are calculated, I'm guessing. Bottom line, use what works for you

Very adventurous Leseding but this why we call it gambling take a chance.