UK Flat season

chicken 'n chips Wrote:

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> only one thing has change on that list and that is
> they don't race at Great Leighs


Stalker
I drove past that about 90 minutes ago..
Goodwood and Sandown my favourite tracks,more to do with surroundings and size of the bars.

@ Edge - I don't know if this will help you but here's what I do.

1.) I enjoy UK racing because the horses are, on average, far superior to SA and because (for me) they run more to form than they do locally. I also enjoy the wide variety of racecourses and surfaces on offer. Some of the analysis is really excellent too.

2.) I DON'T study form AT ALL but simply interpret market movements to the best of my ability using two tools : Betfair & Timeform Radio. (eg : Drifters on Betfair very seldom win so, at the very least, I know what I don't need to seriously consider). I place my bets on Interbet.

3.) I seldom back one horse only in a race. Usually I 'make a book' with cover bets protecting my selection.

4.) I avoid most races over sprint distances. They produce startling results. Issues such as the draw and 'slow away' are terminal in these races. To say nothing of the field sizes in the big UK handicaps!

5.) I focus primarily on races from - 1800 - 3200m (of which there are plenty) and which generally run to form. Better still - the market often throws up only 2-3 potential winners so making a profit is quite easy using '3' above.

6.) I almost NEVER back favourites other than to cover or to cut out. The bigger the price the bigger my bet.

7.) Odds On is an absolute TABOO for me except as in '6' above. South Africa appears to be the world capital of the 'odds on mug'. (I seldom use the word 'mug' to describe my fellow punters but in this instance he/she deserves the tag).

8.) I generally stop as soon as I have made between R2,500 - R5,000 on any given day. I don't punt everyday or I become bored, greedy and reckless. With expensive results! I play off a 'bank' of R20,000 and seldom expose more than 25% of my bank on any one race.

9.) Over time I have learned to treat ALL big meetings as 'watch only' events or as 'small bets for fun' opportunities. Meetings such as the Met, July, Champions Day, World Cup, Ascot, Glorious Goodwood & Cheltenham can absolutely bury you simply because everything running is usually fit and trying.

10.) I would NEVER recommend or encourage big bets on horses to any rational, thinking person. But I would (and have) had my house on selected sporting events. My comments regarding 'odds on' shots obviously do not apply to sports betting with its differing dynamic.

Wetherby today R3 - Big Sound e/w

@ Garrick - Thank you for that very comprehensive response. Much food for thought there!

I, too, have no need for form study, and the betting market I study is the tote board, for the Win only. This is why I prefer the Grade 1 courses, because the tote pools are much bigger, and the bigger the pool, the better my program's chances of following the money flow. The market knows all, and who am I to question it?

I never back favourites, except inadvertently, if it becomes tote favourite after the close, and I actively seek out odds-on shots to bet against, because that's where the overlays are to be found.

As a matter of interest, I use the Kelly Criterion whenever possible, to determine my bet size, because it's the best way to avoid the punter's lament - when we find a winner, we wish we had put more on, and when we back a loser, we wish we hadn't put so much on! Kelly strikes a perfect balance between risk and reward. In fact, the only time I don't use Kelly is when my program points to an underlay as the likely winner, and I think it's worth the risk.

My bank is not in your league, for sure, but punting is my sole source of income, so I will definitely incorporate some of your points into my approach.

Thanks again for your input, much appreciated.

X( finally, it's the only time I really make money! Let's hope tt cover enough of it and our betting outlets take bets for the UK season. IMHO the best racing in the world for the summer, can't waitX(

Sharky Wrote:

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> X( finally, it's the only time I really make
> money! Let's hope tt cover enough of it and our
> betting outlets take bets for the UK season. IMHO
> the best racing in the world for the summer, can't
> waitX(


shush you will be upsetting plenty of clanners with that statement

chicken 'n chips Wrote:

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> Sharky Wrote:
>

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>

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> > X( finally, it's the only time I really make
> > money! Let's hope tt cover enough of it and our
> > betting outlets take bets for the UK season.
> IMHO
> > the best racing in the world for the summer,
> can't
> > waitX(
>
>
> shush you will be upsetting plenty of clanners
> with that statement

Honesty is the best policy CNC... you go sharky...

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