kenilworth saturday...

wind is south easter.headwind,but not blowing strong atm.its a gentle breeze just to cool things down a bit, because its a beautiful sunny day.

Ice Machine
Sister Lynne

Here is my two cents worth...........

1) Good luck to Greg but workriders I stay far away from.
2) I would respect the money for Arria but i would definitely take heed of Olympian. Marshall stable is cooking and this one was backed and showed good toe on debut. He (Thanks Mr. H) is bread to be very forward and speedy so, Arria won't have it all her own way I don't think.
3) I think Top Jet will win. He was given no chance in the Guineas partly because of his draw, well probably completely about his draw. The outsider for me is Pirate Flag. He is up in class but at the weights he has Oreo Shake stone cold so I make him a trifecta runner.
4) This is the most open race on the card, apart from maybe the QP. Any horse here can win. My personal preference is for Lola Bud. She is better off at the weights with every single runner she has faced. Diva's Daughter got 6 lengths over her but that was her 2nd run after a rest and she was not striding out. In the most open race where I'm putting the field in the P6, I make her value at 20/1.
5) Another tough heat. I would be careful of Muscatt as he is having his 2nd run after a long rest on only 10 days turnaround. He will have to run considerably above his rating in order to win, but I'm sure he could do that. Not for me. Divine Jet will be competitive with the scoops on today but my sneaker is bobby james. He always runs on and depending on the conditions, he could be very competitive over his favorite distance.
6) MOMF is all the rage but he will have to run out of his skin in order to win this IMO. He got an 18 pound penalty (if SP ratings are correct) for that last win. He needs to be a rocket of biblical proportions to win especially from that draw. It is quite open imo, with Punta Arenas making most appeal to me. He is a solid galloper and his last run was very impressive coming from way back after suffering interference. Hot ticket should be there with Ze Kaiser improving all the time but this may be a step too far for him. Master Sabina from a plum draw should also have a say but he has to travel and that is never easy. Place chance only.
7) If ratings are to be believed then Strongman should win but imo he is unproven over this type of distance. Karl could jump out and go a snails pace in which case he can kick from the front. Here I like Roman Manner. He was give no penalty for running a head behind Power king who got a huge penalty in the Guineas. If he sees out this trip off hopefully a true pace he has to have a chance. Helderberg blue is very talented but will he jump?
Beach Beauty is a cracking mare but she is 6 years old carrying 60kg's again coming up against some decent other younger fillies as well as the 3 year olds. I would be careful with her and am going rather with Along Came Polly. I think ACP is very decent and is a GR1 winner in her own right. She was very unlucky in the Guineas and should have been closer. Will be a cracking race as it always is. Don't ignore Espumanit even though I think MDK is a little quiet by his high standards right now.
9) FIELD........... I don;t like Jackson which means he will probably win. For me he was given no type of race in his comeback and I would be worried about his fitness. CTN is well drawn and should be right there. I fancy a bit of Ice Machine. If the speed is on he will be running them down. Who will the pacemaker be??????
10) Tiger Tiger is on a hattrick but he has much more to do here at the weights. Tell me more is obviously above average but he too needs to run out of his skin. I'm siding with Kisangani at the weights. I have always liked this grey and I think he will be running them down in the late stages.
11) Gifted for Glory, that's all.
12) Two horse race between Good Girl flies (LOVE the name) and Tapdance........

Happy punting!

Nice write up Tommy....(tu) I see that these big cards tire the old ballies out...last two races....one liners...()

soodum Wrote:

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> Aria has been backed from 14/1 into 1/1
>
> Real money or bookies pulling a fast one ?


Don't take Hollywood's opening betting on some of the race the betting seems very off.

Cant imagine the bookies being generous enough to price up the snaith/fourie combination 14/1

Pirhobeta Wrote:

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> Nice write up Tommy....(tu) I see that these big
> cards tire the old ballies out...last two
> races....one liners...()


Who are you calling an Old Ballie???

good write up tommy and your opinion on the canter past will be appreciated especially divine jet who went down not the best last time

winzip Wrote:

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> wind is south easter.headwind,but not blowing
> strong atm.its a gentle breeze just to cool things
> down a bit, because its a beautiful sunny day.


Thanks (tu)

pirates Wrote:

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> good write up tommy and your opinion on the canter
> past will be appreciated especially divine jet who
> went down not the best last time


I'll try and give what I see but with two meetings that may not be possible. Racing International cuts between the races without much thought of the canter past.

We can only hope we get to see some of the better ones move.

heard the queens plate will be on channel 208 at 16.45

Tellytrack split screen not working....<