Some thoughts on a competitive card:
R3: Difficult to separate Global Talk, Shepherd's Song and Papa Joe imo - GT missed the start last time, but on his pinultimate finished in front of subsequent winner Woza Madoda; SS disappointed when favorite last time, but ran a good 5th behind Gold Prospector in the Sophomore the time before that and Papa Joe improved last time to run 2nd - on a line through Flight of Eagles, PJ looks to hold GT, but SS may be too good - hard to look beyond these 3
R4: Weak field - Mighty Mo looks the right one, not sure what happened last time, has a nice draw and on a line through Stroke One should hold Glitz and Glamour and Sin Latigo (has the advantage of pole position but form has been in and out); Soukous also has moderate form, but could place in this line-up; sand first-timers Rainbow Arrow and Melting Pot only need to reproduce their turf efforts to be factors here and for some real loony selections, perhaps consider Deraqua (may improve without blinkers) and Sammy, who comes off a long rest and tries the sand.
R5: This looks the easiest leg in the P6 to me; I really like Wishful Heart - receives 4.5 kg's from the only danger Magic's Magic, which could prove decisive; these two to be followed by Magic of Rome (needs to put a disappointing last run behind him) and Estancia
R6: Competitve handicap - Marching Band likes this trip, needs to bounce back from from a poor run last time, but not much between him and Muthiah Pillai on the run behind Henry Higgins; Tippuana Jet won nicely in his sand debut and should hold Nad's Pride again at the weights; I prefer these to sand first-timer Snappy Lad and Glitter Alley who has had one poor run over this trip
R7: Wide open after the scratching of Trip Tease; only 10 runners, so the draw may not really come into it and not many that can be considered as chanceless; Goldstream surprised many by an effortless win on the surface last time out - for me the form of that race could prove suspect and I'm looking elsewhere for the winner; at the odds I believe Salute the Sun at 25/1 is great value; Maji Moto is drawn down the inside, but has fair recent form over the trip and can place; Winter's Song (has found betting support) and Jetsons can't be ignored and She's a Tiger looks to have something to find against the males, but her maiden win over the trip has come in a relative fast time - not an easy race
R8: Another difficult puzzle to solve; not much between Senator and Takaamul (drawn wide) on their runs behind Croke Park; for me I prefer the chances of Tobe Turf Terror, who is finding some form and has pole position - not bad value imo at 13/2; Carry on Captain tries the sand and has a wide draw to boot and Jolly Good Sir prefers 1000 imo - Secret Flag can upset if he can repeat his pinultimate effort (finishing in front of TBTT) from a widish draw
R9: 15 runners go to post in the last; Levanto tries a little further, but still looks the right one after going down narrowly to Flag of France last time; Chedwin Park meets L on 3kg better terms for a 3 length beating, so it could get close this time - CP also meets Divine Invitation and Silver Specialist (break a leg Elvis (tu)) on 7.5 kg's and 9.5 kg's worse terms after beating them by 11 and 12.5 lengths - so both could get a lot closer today; others with place chances imo are King Scott, Shadow Mode and the inconsistent Sugar Ray (both these drawn wide)
Chancing the 'when I post it loses' hoodoo with the following PA suggestions:
1,6,9
1,5,6,7,8,9
1,6
1,3,6
2,6,10,11
3,4,5
1,4,10
And a smaller one to cover if the fancied runners rock up:
6,9
1,6,8
1,6
2,3,5
6
3,4
1
Enjoy (tu)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
