Sandy Lane - inconsistent run

"if they are now going
> to let me handicap my own horses to be competitive
> then I must do so"..........is that really such a
> surprising revelation??

Isn't this what they "claiming races" overseas?

Mac Wrote:

---

> "if they are now going
> > to let me handicap my own horses to be
> competitive
> > then I must do so"..........is that really such
> a
> > surprising revelation??
>
> Isn't this what they "claiming races" overseas?


Yes,but they are specific races with clearly defined conditions................not a manipulation of handicap races!!!!!

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Frodo,unfortunately the one drawback of the MR
> system is that it prone to manipulation, therefore
> the regulation of consistency becomes more
> important.
> The key is the need for consistency to be
> defined(If you can't measure it ,you can't
> regulate it).
> An example is the drunk driving
> issue........convictions were few and far between
> until it was defined and measurable(.080,and now
> .050)
>
> Obviously reportable/reported reasons would not
> apply..........but it is surely not acceptable to
> listen to the interview of a 33/1 winner only to
> hear AFTER THE EVENT why you should have ignored
> the last 3 runs!!!
>
> About a month before the MR system was introduced
> ,I was at a function sitting at the same table as
> a top trainer(no longer trains locally) and his
> comment on the system was "if they are now going
> to let me handicap my own horses to be competitive
> then I must do so"..........is that really such a
> surprising revelation??


I agree - we must use the MR guides as that is the basis for handicapping -

There has to be a winner in every race.Foolish thing to say
Sometimes races have favoured horses that don't have a chance to win.Be it form,conditions or a host of other factors.At times these factors could influence your thinking for more then two thirds of the field.
Now your sub conscious should start focusing on the race and it is at this point other more difficult to explain scenarios need to be examined.This is also when you need to remember your state of satisfaction towards different thoughts.This is very important.
But all this has to start off with a solid attack on the weaknesses of the favoured.
An example that springs to mind was Pomodoro winning a 1160 sprint when I think Marwing was riding the favourite.That one together with 4 to 5 horses in a small field would never have been able to be the winner.
So sometimes it is difficult to accuse guys that claim to have been confident on a ridiculous winner of skuldugerry
You can never say what goes on in the mind of a fellow human.But respect for the fellow human has been on the degrade for many a year and as long as similar types continue to remain closeted in their thinking this behaviour could easily be construed for arrogance.

But for the most parts just use the form as best you can.
Another thing
A few of us should try to be less argumentative on certain threads but share little or nothing on the dailys.I mean who is going take what you saying seriously if you ain't playing

Ben-Hur Wrote:

---

>
> Another thing
> A few of us should try to be less argumentative on
> certain threads but share little or nothing on the
> dailys.I mean who is going take what you saying
> seriously if you ain't playing

Are you seriously suggesting that the people who have most to say on the dailys are also the punters that punt most &/or contribute most to the betting pools..........or perhaps that the only valuable contribution to racing is all in those threads?

not at all

JAMES BLOND Wrote:

---

> There are many cases of horses who wins a race
> close to the DAY the previous year, latest example
> is Coffee Sheik
> also notice Guantanamera ran 2nd last year this
> year 4th
>
> 27/08/2013 Scotsville
> 1ST2 Coffee Sheik
> 2ND5 Guantanamera
> 3RD6 Mr Whatever
> 3RD7 Panama Man
>
>
> 26/08/2012 Clairwood
> C64 - Race 7 - R 95000 - RUGBY 5 PINNACLE STAKES
> A race for all horses - 1200m
> No Horse Jockey Trainer Al/Bl Kg Dr Fin Dist Time
> OP SP
> 4 COFFEE SHEIK Lucian Africa W
> Whitehead A 59.0 1 1 0.00 69.85 16/1 9/1
> 12 SKITT SKIZZLE Anthony Delpech S G
> Tarry A 53.0 11 2 1.00 70.03 9/2 3/1
> 7 MONSIEUR DUPONT Donovan Dillon (2.5) M W
> Bass A 57.0 8 3 2.00 70.21 8/1 15/1
> 10 GUANTANAMERA Karis Teetan J
> Freedman A 55.0 9 4 2.05 70.22 10/1 14/1
> 3 ICE MACHINE Stuart Randolph G B
> Puller A 59.0 13 5 2.55 70.31 7/1 9/2
> 1 RIO CARNIVAL (AUS) Keagan De Melo (1.5) C
> Laird A B 61.0 10 6 2.80 70.35 7/1 13/1
> 8 ALWAYS AL Brandon Lerena S G
> Tarry A 57.0 2 7 4.30 70.62 14/1 20/1
> 9 KALINAGO Sean Cormack D R
> Drier A 57.0 7 8 5.55 70.85 16/1 28/1
> 5 THE SHARK (ZIM) Kevin Shea D Kannemeyer A
> B 59.0 4 9 6.55 71.03 8/1 8/1
> 2 THE MOUSEKETEER Raymond Danielson S G
> Tarry A 61.0 6 10 7.30 71.17 8/1 25/1
> 6 SPORTS COACH Anton Marcus C Laird A
> B 57.0 12 11 8.05 71.31 28/10 33/10 F
> 13 NATIONAL CARRIER Athandiwe Mgudlwa G B
> Puller A 53.0 3 12 9.30 71.54 25/1 28/1
> 11 JOSHUAS CROWN Alec Forbes A D
> Gordon A 55.0 5 13 11.05 71.87 25/1 50/1


I agree...it's about the pattern......(tu)

Pirho,I am more and more convinced that patterns are as important as form as they are good indicators as to which form is likely to hold up!

Some form is definitely more reliable than other.

Likes this time of year is a common phrase from the UK pundits

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Pirho,I am more and more convinced that patterns
> are as important as form as they are good
> indicators as to which form is likely to hold up!
>
> Some form is definitelymore reliable than other.


there are the trainers that bring there horses out once a year for a win...slow build up and preparation to the annual win, more or less to the same date....occasionally they develop an illness, have a saddle slip get baulked etc....and then they wait for next year...still end up three and four and five time winners...always at nice prices....if you catch them right....once a year is consistent...once every two years is also consistent...

hibernia Wrote:

---

> Likes this time of year is a common phrase from
> the UK pundits


Them soutpiele....they does have records that goes back lots of years.......we want patterns of less than 6 months....

Pirhobeta Wrote:

---

> hibernia Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Likes this time of year is a common phrase from
> > the UK pundits
>
>
> Them soutpiele....they does have records that goes
> back lots of years.......we want patterns of
> less than 6 months....


Less sun more sun...

Fast Ground Soft Ground

Hairy Coat shiny coat