Please post comments, opinions, selections on the daily thread rather than here (tu)
RACE 1 - MAIDEN 1000
1 TORNADO TWISTER - SJG/Lerena. 5 top 3s in 7 c runs including silvers at both attempts over c/d (2,25l and 4.5l ahead of HLad). Decent draw in 8. From 1st run over c/d the 1st, 3rd and 5th have won since
2 SALUTE THE SUN - A 2nd and 3rd in 6 c/d runs. Blinkers go on but has 3l to find with TT and has a low-ish draw again
3 GOLDEN DOLLAR - 2nd on c debut in a WR over 1200 last time. Not convinced drop in trip will suit. Was beaten 3.5l by HLad who TT finished in-front of in both his runs over 1000. Khumalo up and drawn high in 14
5 DON VITO - SJG/Fradd. Well beaten only run which was over c/d but was only 3.25l behind HLad who finished 3rd. Low draw in 2
6 PLAY-PLAY - Goosen. Well beaten last time out on c debut over 1450. Drop in trip may help but low draw in 3 and will need to show improvement to win
7 FLAMING SUN - 2 c runs beaten 17l (1000) and 25l (1450). Brown rides. Drawn high in 15. Blinkers on but will need to bring about a huge improvement
8 HIDDEN GUN - Not been within 9l of the winner in 4 c/d runs. Drawn high in 12 but 13.25l behind TT last time on the c
9 BATTLE OF ALMA - Decent draw in 9 but 9.75l behind TT on his only c run
10 BUNDESTAG - Debut. Breeding suggests a possibility he will take to the surface but trainer seemingly out of form. Low draw
11 COSMIC TOM - Good debut when 2nd over c/d beaten 2.25l. 3rd and 5th have won since. 3rd was HLad and CT finished 6l ahead of that one. 10 week rest and ok draw in 7. Striker up for the inform Lucky H and must have a big chance
13 HEYWOT - Sand debut. Respectable 3rd on turf debut but nothing to state he will enjoy the sand and trainer form seemingly not at his best. Low-ish draw in 6
14 MARTIN - Debut. Drawn highest in 18 but another with nothing to confirm he will enjoy the surface
15 TRIP TEASE - Goosen. Debut, Drawn 13 but another with nothing to confirm he will enjoy the surface. Come in for some market support... edit 9.47pm... care, now as short as 2/1 from opening price of 16/1
16 IM NO MICKEY MOUSE - Yet to do better than 5th in 4 c runs and highly unlikely that stat will be improved here
17 FYRKAT - Goosen/Wrog. Debut. Reserve runner coming in for a scratching from the same stable. Drawn 1 and though another with nothing to confirm he will take to the surface may be worth a small e/w idiot. Unfortunately it looks like I may have picked the wrong one lol as one of LG's others has received some support!
18 ARTFUL PRINCE - Sand debut. Two poor turf efforts and nothing to confirm he will love the sand
Unless one springs a surprise then Cosmic Tom looks to have an outstanding chance and Tornado Twister looks a fair bet for the exacta... COSMIC TOM x TORNADO TWISTER x SALUTE THE SUN
RACE 2 - 1450 H'CAP-84
1 DUAL ALLIANCE - Tarry/Khumalo. 4 wins and a silver from 7 c visits. Returning from a 47 week rest when finished distressed and last of 5 beaten 13l by Pylon last time out. Should come on for the race but a watching brief for me this time around given that defeat
2 BARON ZEMO - Magner/Lerena. 3 wins in 8 c runs, two of them coming in 3 over c/d. Beat Panjo 4.75l over c/d in penultimate run and is 2kg better off here, though the latter was drawn 13/14 then and lost lengths at the start. Has a chance
3 FUNNY GLORY - 8 top 3s in 13 c runs and a 2-1-1 in 7 over c/d. Has been thereabouts on his last three runs over this c/d from poor draws but not been at his best in recent runs over shorter. If at his best then would be a lively contender but with the trainer not appearing to be firing at the moment has ?s to answer and a risky proposition
4 NIGHT EMBERS - Not in the top 3 in his two c runs, turf form not great recently and comes off a 13 week rest, a pass
5 PANJO - Azzie/Strydom. Convincing 6l winner under PS last time out over c/d beating Decameron into 2nd when receiving 3.5kgs. In penultimate run was beaten 4.75l by BZ and though 2kgs worse off was drawn 13/14 and lost 3l at the start. Possibly worth noting that first time out against Decameron, when drawn 12/12 and losing 1-2l at the start, he only won by 1l receiving 8kgs. With the 1 box here and assuming no disasters at the gate, definitely the one to beat for me
6 ENCHANTED GUEST - Sand debut. Nothing in the breeding says to me he is a definite taker to the sand. Despite appie taking weight off looks a tough task coming off a 12 week rest against some proven sand performers
7 ROMEOS REWARD - A win and two silvers in 8 c runs but beaten 12.5l in his only run over c/d. Trainer seemingly not firing and would be a surprise if winning this in current form
With ?s to be answered for me with both Dual Alliance and Funny Glory, for me it becomes a dual between Panjo and Baron Zemo. Despite BZ's win last time they met, I prefer Panjo, assuming all goes well at the start... PANJO x BARON ZEMO x FUNNY GLORY
RACE 3 - MAIDEN 1450
2 SURPRISE ME - Sand debut. Only 3 top 3s in 22 turf runs and nothing to suggest he will definitely take to the surface. With a wide draw of 9 makes little appeal but the field is a very weak one
3 BERRYFIELDS - yet to place in 5 course runs. Tries the distance for the first time and best run was over 1200 but with a wide draw in 12 is another who makes little appeal but is not totally without a chance
4 THE IT GIRL - has disappointed since runner-up over 1200 on c debut, with three heavy defeats since, two over this c/d. Wide draw in 11 and not for me until signs of better form
5 IN MY SECRET LIFE - SJG/Fradd. Sand debut. Slowly away in only turf run and rested 13 weeks. Combo to be respected and a good draw in 3 but with nothing to suggest he will definitely take to the surface, would normally be a watching brief but given the poor form and lack of options maybe the one to go with (very small!)
6 SILVANO'S ANGEL - Well beaten all 3 starts including on c debut last time over 1600. that came off a 13 week rest and Chambers is up again but with a wide draw in 10 makes little appeal
7 TEMPS PERDU - Well beaten both starts including on c debut last time out when beaten 6.75l by the now scratched Mighty Mo. Good draw in 4 but slowly away both starts. If breaking on terms then has a chance of a place in this field
8 CALYPSO GIRL - Well beaten over 1600 last time and prior to that was beaten 7l on c debut over this d, finishing 6.75l behind the horse that beat him by 32l over further. Has the 1 box and given the weakness of the field has a chance
9 SOUKOUS - Sand debut. Improved in last turf run under this appie but that was over 1700 and not sure the drop back in trip will suit. Has an ok draw in 6 and a chance on breeding she will like the sand but not one I would risk yet, watching brief despite the weak opposition
10 NONDWENI'S FILLY - Pettigrew/MVR. Sand debut. Well beaten on first start last time but there is a little in the breeding to suggest she may take to the surface and has a good draw. A useful sand combination and if the price is decent then may be worth a very small idiot e/w given the weak field
11 ROYAL QUEST - C debut. Two average turf runs followed her debut when a 2.25l 2nd at Bingo over 1000 in a poor maiden. Not impossible but unlikely. Drawn 7.
12 SO CLOSE - Sand debut. Rested 20 weeks since being hammered on her debut after being slow away. Drawn 8. Hints in the breeding that she may take to the surface but following that debut run would be looking for a huge price to put down R1 e/w
Must be close to one of the worst fields ever and I have not got a clue. Given the poor form, have given preference to the sand newcomers... IN MY SECRET LIFE x NONDWENI'S FILLY x CALYPSO GIRL
RACE 4 - 1450 H'CAP-74
1 ACES HIGH - has won 2/3 visits to the c, all over 1600. Decent win last time out with the blinkers on and the runner-up went in next time. MVR retains the ride, drawn 3 and looks to have a very good chance
2 LORD HAWKE - Won 2 of his last 3 c runs with perhaps the latest his best against some decent performers over 1600. Was drawn 14/14 then and now has the 2 draw with Fradd retaining the ride and has to have a chance again
3 WHERE'S MY CHOP - SJG/Lerena. 9 top 3s in 16 c runs but not won over this d and is 0-1-2 in 6 attempts over c/d. Was beaten 4.75l by Velddrifter over c/d in penultimate run, though that came off a 13 week rest and he is now 4kgs better off. Never far away and not beaten more than 6l in any of his last 28 runs
4 SERMON - Has a 4-1-2 record in 21 c/d runs and though seemingly not at his best of late and appearing held by some, he should not be discounted as he continues to drop in class and gets PS up
5 VELDDRIFTER - Disappointing when seemingly not staying (Mr H!) the 1600 last time and well beaten by LH. Prior to that he was a very decent winner over the c/d when the blinkers were fitted, with three of these behind, and if able to repeat that penultimate run is in with a good chance
6 BAREBACK - Has been running over shorter recently and is 0/3 over this c/d. Over 1200 was 6.75l behind LH three runs back and, though he occasionally finishes strongly over 1200, he seems inconsistent and is not one that I could support with any confidence
7 DANZIG'S ODDS - Has 1 silver in 5 c/d runs. Recent efforts have been poor and was 20l behind Velddrifter last time out, albeit on 2nd run after a rest. Does occasionally spring a surprise and now on the 3rd run with Khumalo up but not likely
8 PASSION PLEASER - Had some poor draws of late but is 1-0-1 in 11 c runs and yet to place in 3 over c/d. Seems held on some lines including when beaten 9.25l by LH over 1200 when drawn widest and despite having the 1 draw here and being 5,5kg better off, hard to see him making the required improvement
9 CATAMAGIC - yet to place in 3 c visits and 1 silver in 5 runs at the d. Beaten 25l by Velddrifter last time over c/d
Tricky race with plenty of contenders... ACES HIGH x LORD HAWKE x VELDDRIFTER
RACE 5 - 1800 MAIDEN
1 GLITTER ALLEY - SJG/Fradd. Sand debut. 2nd on only attempt at the d. Nothing in breeding confirms he will definitely take to the surface but chance from poll if so doing
2 ALI - Pettigrew/MVR. Sand debut. Drops in d. Nothing in breeding confirms he will definitely take to the surface but chance if so doing and gets away better than he often does
3 SOLAR ENERGY - 2nd on c debut over this d last time out. Well behind runaway winner Mauri Blue, but 2.25l ahead of Atlas Grove and 2 other rivals well behind, though Big Lion may have had excuses. Has another wide draw but in a weak field has a chance
4 CHAPEL OF LOVE - 3 c runs and not within 11.75l of the winner, including last time out. Frequently loses many lengths at the start. Has appie up taking weight off and a good draw in 2 but otherwise impossible to recommend
5 ATLAS GROVE - one third in 12 c runs and that came in 6 attempts over c/d. Penultimate run when 2.25l behind SE in 2nd. Last time out was 2.75l behind King over 1600. Given that he normally finishes mid-division, in this weak field he should not be discounted but no obvious reason why he should reverse the form
6 KING - No top 3s in 5 c visits though best effort was 4th from a wide draw last time over 1600 here. That race was with another poor field but was drawn 15/16 and finished 2.25l ahead of Border Patrol and 2.75l in front of AG. For later reference (Big Lion), Hobbs Flight ran 2nd, 1.5l ahead of King. Can't be discounted in this field.
7 BORDER PATROL - Although has yet to finish in the top 3 in 21 runs, 5 of those on c, he has met some better sand performers on occasion than his rivals here have. And when 2.25l behind King last time that was when drawn 16/16 over 1600 and despite a 13 week rest he was reported running on at the finish. Blinkers are tried and Simons is up and if not suffering from 2nd run after a rest, could be the e/w value in the race
8 MAYBE BABY - Has 7 top 3s in 21 c runs but rare these days that he is beaten by single figure lengths. If he is ever going to have a return to form then now would be the time! but impossible to recommend
9 BUSHVELDS PRIDE - Shown very little in 4 c runs and though Chambers is up and drawn 5, is another with nothing really to recommend
10 SELDOM SEEN KID - Shown very little in 5 c runs and last time out, over 1450, was the first time he has managed to get within 10l of the winner. Has the 3 draw and is on 3rd run after a rest but yet another with nothing really to recommend
11 RIVER ROMANCE - Sand debut. Poor turf form. Brown up. 4 draw. Nothing to say he will like the surface but, in this field, who knows...!
12 BIG LION - Strydom retains the ride which could be very significant. Beaten 28l last time out over c/d and that was close enough to 20l behind AG. However, may be worth ignoring that run as in his penultimate run, over 1600, he was a staying on 4.25l 3rd but finished the same distance ahead of the 4th, Hobbs Flight. 1st and 2nd both won next time out. In such a poor field he is likely to be a big runner
Big Lion is the obvious e/w choice for me. The newcomers have to be respected in a poor field but there is little to suggest they will be future stars either. Border Patrol looks the one who might be better than the bare form suggests and if the price allows, may be worth a nibble... BIG LION x BORDER PATROL x GLITTER ALLEY
RACE 6 - 1800 H'CAP-68
1 ELEGANT BAY - Pettigrew/MVR. Won 2 of his 5 c runs including a 3l success over 1600 last time out with 4 of these further back. That was a big form reversal on her penultimate run when behind both Olympic Spring and Aloha Bay. Has a big weight, not drawn so well and yet to finish in top 3 in 3 d runs (though has gone further) but in with a chance
2 SCARLETTO - Struggled a little since winning maiden on c, has a wide draw in 10 and rested 25 weeks. Did finish 3.25l ahead of Olympic Spring last time out and is better off at the weights but the latter seems to have much improved since. Unlikely
4 ALOHA BAY - 4 top 3s in 11 c runs and a 3rd in 3 c/d runs. Not convinced this is her best d but is drawn in 1 and has had some high draws recently. Usually not too far away and although seemingly held by EB and OS going from the 1 box with Chambers up may see her thereabouts at the finish. If she drifts may be worth a small e/w idiot
5 BEAUTIFUL DAWN - Looks held by rivals in each of her 3 recent runs over 1600 and 1800 and no reason to think that she will be able to improve enough to reverse the form of those runs
6 OLYMPIC SPRING - Ignoring the penultimate run when well behind EB, has been a model of consistency in her 8 runs since her last rest and in that time has not been beaten more than 3.5l. Has a 2-1-0 record in 4 c/d runs and PS gets back on board, last timer he was up OS won by 3.5l over c/d. Seems to hold most on form and unless has a repetition of that penultimate run must be a big runner. The concern is that one poor run and the price.
7 SUMMER SARI - 5 top 3s in 18 c runs. Last time out over 1450 she disappointed but prior to that had shown some improvement in recent runs. Although she looks held by others on the runs behind Elegant Bay and Miss K, she was not far away in the Miss K run and did beat others when behind EB. She doesn't appeal strongly but at the same time she has every right to be in the mix based on those 2 runs
8 PRETTY LADY - one third in 2 c runs which implies she is ok on the surface (both were over sprints) and though her recent turf runs have not been inspiring she may be better on this surface, highly unlikely but would not be the biggest shock from the 3 draw
9 TIZASMARTDOLLAR - looks held on last run and particularly in runs with OS
10 BERMUDA BOWL - 0-0-1 in 6 c runs and 0-0-9 at d) and very unlikely to feature
One or two confusing form lines, particularly from the race won by Elegant Bay in his last run. OS is much better than he showed there but EB was a long way clear. The d does appear a concern for EB though despite the comfort of that success. OS is the likely winner for me but a single bet is definitely not an option for me at the price. Going with Aloha Bay and Summer Sari, who I think are value compared to some of the others, for trifectas and quartets... OLYMPIC SPRING x SUMMER SARI x ALOHA BAY
RACE 7 looks competitive. Hard to oppose in-form trainer and jockey with Cockney Tiger but the rest may cost him a length or two and that may let in Blue Concorde who has a better draw than has been the case recently, was well supported last time out and has a 2kg swing with CT for a 2.25l defeat. Plenty others though have a chance if things go their way on the day and any of King's Joy, Hunter Valley, Silver Specialist, Divine Intervention and Giro Jet could be involved at the finish. The sand debutant Ganesh has a good sire for the surface. comes off a turf win, has an in-form appie up taking a little weight off and drawn 1 so if he does indeed enjoy the surface he could be a big runner, though MVR is up on Pettigrew's other runner, DI. (Only leaves three out so the winner will probably come from Sugar Ray, Zebulon or Kruger Gold! lol)... BLUE CONCORDE x COCKNEY TIGER x KING'S JOY
RACE 8 also looks competitive. I've gone with the form of Maji Moto's last run where he came late to beat Shine Tiger and that could be the case again. Stravinsky may find this too sharp, as may Authenticated but equally both could well be thereabouts, I have a marginal preference for the latter primarily due to the draw. Luxardo is an interesting sand debutant, decent sire for the surface, good 3rd last turf run, ok draw in 8 and appie taking weight off. Gabronza had a big reversal of form last time and is drawn on the low side again which could again be a deciding factor... MAJI MOTO x SHINE TIGER x AUTHENTICATED
Topic Author
< 
