RACE 1 - 1600 Maiden
1 ALL THE ONES - Course debut. Unplaced in 12 runs including a 7.25l defeat on the Vaal sand. Soundly beaten last two turf runs when slowly away both times and is drawn 12/13. Although the breeding suggests a possibility of liking the surface will be no more than a watching brief for me
2 ELLIPSIS - Miller/MVR. Improved since arriving at Kimberley. As for the 2nd run, is up 200 in d. Finished 3rd last time out over 1400 and the 2nd (by 5.5l) and the 4th (by 2.75l) have won since (they were both also involved in his course debut and another two have also won from that 1200 run). Decent draw in 6 and at the prices the e/w call for me
3 IMPERANI - Best runs have been over this d and his 2 silvers in 9 c runs have been over the c/d. 2nd last time out and was supported from 25 into 6/1. Has Muzi up and is on 3rd run after a rest but is drawn widest of all, chance if they can overcome the draw.
4 SENGWA - Course debut. Yet to have a top 3 in 7 runs including 2 on the Vaal sand but was beaten only 2l into 5th last time out, albeit in a weak field. Trainer and jockey both in excellent form and both VS runs were from wide draws whereas he has a decent draw in 5 here. Chance in another poor field but ridiculous price
5 DIAMOND STRIKE - Rugg. On 3rd run after a rest and gets a good draw in 4 for a change but yet to place in 4 c runs and not been within 7l of the winner. Highly unlikely and a shock if he does find the necessary improvement
6 OLD DEUTERONOMY - Visser/Gunter. No top 3s in 2 c runs and 5 d runs. 15.5l behind Ellipsis last time and an unacceptable shock if he finds the necessary improvement!
7 ROCK 'N ROLLA - Rugg/Brown. No top 3s in 2 c runs (1200). Seemingly stable elect and on 3rd run after a rest. Well behind Ellipsis in penultimate run and drawn 11. Up in distance may bring some improvement but watching brief at most
8 COLONEL SANDERS - Well beaten on c debut following a 64 week rest last time out and on collateral form has a lot to find with Ellipsis (1200). Trainer in form, appie takes weight off, good draw in 3, chance that up 400 in d and needing of the last run will bring about a better effort but for all that will still be a big shock if CnCs dad can find the necessary improvement to win this
9 MARIA'S BOY - Not placed in 4 c runs and not been within 16l of the winner. Also not placed in 4 d runs (1 c/d). 15l behind Ellipsis over 1400 and despite excuses that day and Chambers up, another who should be destined for an "also ran" berth
10 KING'S MENTOR - Has the 1 box but not within 10l of the winner in 5 c runs and trainer form has not been strong for a long time now
11 TUITIRA - Poor draw in 9 and not within 12.5l of the winner in 7 c runs and trainer form has not been strong for a long time now
12 ECO FIRE - Well beaten on debut though reported not striding but has a poor draw and though the big jump in trip may suit, nothing suggests he will trouble the judge
13 PINK PEARL - Has the 2 box but not within 9l of the winner in 6 c runs and another that should only be thereabouts at the business end if at least half the field fail to finish
ELLIPSIS x SENGWA x IMPERANI
RACE 2 - 1000 MAIDEN
1 MAPOGGO - Beaten under 2ls in 2 c runs when 3rd (1200) and 4th (1000). Backed from 25/2 to 5/1 on c debut and 4 from that race have won since. Trainer and jockey in good form and though behind E Dream and Nomenclature last time has a chance of overturning that form on 3rd run after a rest
2 EXTREME DREAM - Rugg/Brown. 0-1-1 in 7 c runs but improved with the drop back in d for the last two runs and was 3rd last time out with the blinkers applied, 0.5l behind Nomenclature (0.5kgs better off) and 0.5l ahead of Mapoggo. Perhaps a little less scope for improvement than the latter but looks to have an equal chance
3 SHEIKITUP - 1.75l behind stablemate Mapoggo over 1000 when showing big improvement but is now 1.5kgs worse off. Others appear to have better prospects here but not without a chance
4 RAMIRO - Rugg. No top 3s in 5 c runs and not been closer than 7.5l of the winner. On 3rd run after a rest but hard to see him making the necessary improvement
5 ISLANDIWANA - Drops to the minimum d but having been beaten a minimum of 38l in his 2 runs then we should all stop punting if he wins
6 SECRET DELIGHT - Drops back to the minimum trip where both his 3rds in 4 c runs have come. Trainer without a win in a long time but this one gives him a slim chance of changing that
7 BEACH BAR - Miller/MVR. Drops back to the minimum trip where both his 2nds in 4 c runs have come, finishing 0.5l and 0.25l ahead of SD in those runs. The blinkers go on and has a chance but prefer others
8 PAPA'S INN - 0/8 for top 3s on c and well beaten nearly all starts. Highly unlikely
9 SHAVAR - Spies/Chambers. Good combo but seemingly not one of the stable's best as not within 10l of the winner in his 3 c runs
10 HONOLULU EXPRESS - Beaten 50l over 1400 both starts and even Muzi will find it hard to produce a miraculous improvement on this one
11 NOMENCLATURE - Shams/GW. Caught late on both c appearances. Ahead of a few of these behind King Kallis, finishing 0.5l ahead of ED and now 0.5kg better off. Obvious chance
12 SAINT ACTAVIUS - Not disgraced in his 3 c runs and though the blinkers may not have worked for the better still has 5l to find with Nomenclature on her last run and that puts her behind a few of these
13 SPICE JET - Well beaten on c debut last time out and not been within 9l of the winner in 6 runs. Had two consecutive 13 week rests so maybe had problems. If so and recovered then there is something in the breeding to say she may take to the surface. Though she is often sluggish at the start and seems highly unlikely to feature, at 50/1 or better may be worth chancing R1 e/w
NOMENCLATURE x MAPOGGO x EXTREME DREAM
RACE 3 - 1000 HANDICAP-68
1 GYPSY FAIR - 2-3-3 in 32 runs and drops to 1000 for the first time in 12 runs. Is 0/4 in c/d runs but has been tiring late in last two after going to the front from wide draws. When racing handy 3 runs back he cruised to victory over 1200. Chance.
2 SHE'S GOT GEARS - Visser/Yeni. 1-2-2 in 9 c/d runs. Behind GF last 2 times they have met (1200) and 2kgs worse off at the weights for 0.5l last time but has a chance.
3 WINTER FROST - Rugg/Brown. Arrived from the Vaal sand but disappointed on c debut when beaten 9.25l. Is on 3rd run after a rest and has been nibbled at in the market but watching brief for me
4 BOARDING CALL - Spies/Chambers. Sand debut. Well beaten in 2 features following maiden win but combo to be respected especially with one whose breeding suggests there is a good chance he will take to the surface, big chance if doing so but very short in the market
5 SNOW GARLAND - Visser/Khumalo. 1-2-1 in 12 c/d runs. Seems better over this d of late, well behind GF and stablemate SGG last two times over 1200 but in between, over this d, SG was 3.5l ahead of SGG with the latter 2.5kgs better off now. The previous time they met over the d SG was agaon ahead of SGG, by 4.5l. But, of course, being this stable, the time before that over c/d, SGG had beaten SG by 7.5l... go figure, cos I can't! lol
6 FANTASY HOSTESS - One third in 5 c/d runs and recent form has been poor, well behind others here in the run behind Princess Alberta. Watching brief until form improves
7 IZAANAZAMA - Spies. Well beaten when trying the Vaal sand and then Bingo last time out. Seemingly not stable elect and unlikely that he will improve sufficiently for 3rd run after a rest to be troubling the judge
8 LA FLAMME - returns to the minimum after two poor efforts over 1200. Is 1-3-0 in 5 c/d runs but they were not the strongest of fields and all placings came in maidens. Not impossible but not highly likely either
9 ORIENTAL WAY - ran on well to get up late to win maiden at the 15th attempt last time out. Appie helps give her a low weight but might find some of these stronger
10 WISPER THE WIND - Much improved since returning from rest when 0.5l 2nd over 1200 when drawn 14/14 (SG 5.25l back and WTW is now 4kgs worse off with that rival) and then a 2l 3rd over 1400 when drawn 10/13. Well beaten by SGG on c debut but has seemingly come on a lot since. Concern is the 1-0-1 record in 10 d runs and not placed in 2 c/d efforts and whether it may be too sharp but does perhaps represent some e/w value at 12s plus
11 SHEPHERDS BUSH - One silver in 7 c runs, that coming in 3 c/d runs. Looks to be well held here though on recent runs
BOARDING CALL x WISPER THE WIND x SNOW GARLAND x GYPSY FAIR
RACE 4 - 2200 H'CAP-72
1 KING FERNANDO - Course debut. Well beaten in only run at Vaal sand. Good draw, drops in class, trainer coming in to form and a little in the breeding to suggest he may go well on the surface and if doing so has a chance. But, big weight coming off a 12 week rest and too many ?s for me, watching brief
2 DIGITAL DYNASTY - Sand debut. Good draw and both jockey and, particularly, trainer in form. Only won maiden two runs back in a WR race and well beaten in subsequent run. Comes off a 13 week rest and nothing says to me he will definitely take to the surface. Again, too many ?s and a ridiculous price on top! Watching brief
3 CASTLE ROCK - Visser/Khumalo. 2 3rds in 3 c/d runs and no improvement on that in 3 other c runs. Beaten 13l by stablemate Dolomite over 1800 last time out but has finished ahead of that rival in his last two runs at this d. For me represents some potential e/w value at 12s and up
4 GLAMAZON - Rugg/Brown. Well beaten in his first two runs at the c over 1600 and 1800 and nothing says to me the step up in trip will necessarily bring further improvement. Not likely
5 DOLOMITE - Visser/Yeni. Got up late to win over 1800 last time out under Khumalo with CR 13l back but twice behind CR at this d. First time was well behind CR when coming off a 10 week rest and much better effort 2nd time, gets 2kgs for 0,5l with CR on the last time they met at the d and Muzi is up but that is tempered by Khumalo for appie on CR. Obvious chance but not convinced that he is at his most effective at this d and given the stable and the prices, I'd rather chance CR
6 MULLINS COVE - Rugg. Won poor (though 2nd and 3rd have won since) maiden two runs back over this d but beaten 14l by Dolomite over 1800 last time. Seemingly not stable elect and though may do better at this d, highly unlikely
7 GLOBE TROTTER - Much improved run last time when backed from 50s to 14s and finished a 1.25l 2nd to Dolomite over 1800 but Is 1.5kgs worse off with that rival here. Has 18 top 3s in 45 c runs and if that last run does herald a form return then he is not without a chance. Has only gone the d once and was well beaten
8 RUN RORKUS RUN - Visser. No top 3s in 5 c runs and was 13.25l behind Dolomite last time out over 1800. Tries this d but with Yeni and Khumalo up on the other stable runners it seems highly unlikely this one will suddenly show sufficient improvement to win
CASTLE ROCK x DOLOMITE x GLOBE TROTTER
RACE 5 - 1800 H'CAP-80
1 PEARL RUSH - Excellent c performer with 5 wins in a total of 8/9 c runs and unbeaten in 3 efforts over c/d. The one unplaced was last time out over 400 more and reported not striding. Won under Muzi before and also victorious in last 2 runs after similar rests. Trainer in very good form and only negative appears to be the big weight
2 TENACIOUS TESS - Miller/MVR. 3 golds and 3 silvers in 14 c runs. Yet to go this far but did win going away over 1600 in penultimate run. A big runner imo
3 PINTARI - Spies/Chambers. Returns to Bingo following two heavy defeats on the Vaal sand. Beat Kahal's Secret by 12l on c debut but was then beaten 8.25l in her second run here, finishing 1l behind KS. Both runs over this d. Clearly has ability and has to have a chance based on that first c run but poor since and a risky proposition for me
4 VESTAL VIRGIN - Sham/GW. 1-1-2 in 9 c runs. Beaten 7.5l by KS last time out over 200 less when drawn widest of 11. Previously beaten 4.25l by TT over 1600 and TT now 0.5kg better off. GW rides this one though rather than KS, which may have something to do with the latter's inconsistency, but does also go from poll this time
5 KAHAL'S SECRET - Sham. 4-4-3 in 24 c runs and 2-2-1 in 7 c/d runs. Beat a couple of these rivals over 1600 last time out. Previously finished 7l behind VV over 1400 and 14l behind TT over 1600. Last time over this d was 0.25l ahead of VV who is now 0.5kg better off. Despite good c/d record and a return to form last time, she appears very inconsistent and, especially with her draw going from 2 to 9, another risky option
6 LITTLE SWAN - 8 top 3s in 11 c runs and third in all 3 c/d runs. Last time was probably too far and is generally consistent, was well behind Pintari in the latter's winning run and has twice finished behind KS over this distance with the weights not changing in her favour. Does appear held but with the inconsistency of some of the others, not without a chance but surprisingly short in the market imo
7 ICE KITTEN - Has been beaten 11 and 5.25l by TT and KS respectively and also behind LS three runs back, all over 1600, and will be a shock if she can reverse all the formlines
8 TIGHT IN TIME - Won poor maiden at the 10th attempt last time out and hard to see her beating some half-decent sand performers here
9 BLUSHING GREY - Much improved when upped in d to 1600 last time out on her 3rd c run, finishing 0.5l ahead of LS but even with the appie up is now 3.5kg worse off. Unlikely but if improvement continues over 200 further then maybe worth R1 e/w if the price allows... at a paltry 16s it does not allow!
TENACIOUS TESS x PEARL RUSH x KAHAL'S SECRET
Selections for the remaining races...
R6 - AFRICAN FLAME x SILLY MID-ON x TURKESTAN
R7 - AIRANI x PRIDEOFTHENATION x GIANT STRIDES
R8 - SIOUX SHE x CIDER APPLE x COUNTESS KATE
R9 - CHIOVANNI x TRIPARTITE x WITH PASSION
And SOME (nb DTF!! lol) of my bets...
Win Treble... BOARDING CALL x AFRICAN FLAME x AIRANI
Semi-idiots e/w Double... WISPER THE WIND x CASTLE ROCK
E/W Patent... TENACIOUS TESS x SIOUX SHE x CHIOVANNI
Place ATC... ELLIPSIS x MAPOGGO x TENACIOUS TESS x SILLY MID-ON x SIOUX SHE
And a couple of other thoughts, Nomenclature is short for a horse than only beat two of the rivals by 1l, if either of the others or Beach Bar drift then they may become more attractive e/w bets. I like African Flame and Boarding House but, respectively, for course and sand debutants, they are both very short in the market and better value might be found e/w elsewhere. Anyway...
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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