Speed ratings for main contenders with previous Vaal Sand ‘form’ –
R1 MDN-F 1000m (60.10 secs)
74…Sweet Harlem 20/1
70…All the Tens 6/1
65…Stage Attraction 10/1
61…Berryfields 33/1
??…Wendy Mae 5/2
??…Crown Bearer 3/1
Should the draw play a significant part here then it is likely to be the ‘charge of the LJE brigade’ as most of his runners have high draws. With Sherman on Crown Bearer, and on overall form, this is probably the stable ‘elect’…sand ability to be proven, which is the same with the favourite, Wendy Mae who is poorly drawn, ditto All the Tens. Trusting the figures and the draw, and in spite of the ‘weak’ jockey/trainer statistics, going with Sweet Harlem…more likely as a place probability.
R2 MDN-F 1600m (102.00 secs)
79…Royal Taska 12/10
71…Shirla 10/1
70…Noble Wind 16/1
66…Monsoon Wind 20/1
65…Calypso Girl 12/1
65…French Approval 40/1
??…The Light House 28/10
This year GVW has shown really good form at the VS and The Light House does not have to be exceptional to win here. Royal Tasks improved lto and is the clear ‘figure’ horse. However, may be more value again with place options…Noble Wind (quartets and swingers etc) the choice.
R3 MDN 1450m (91.30 secs)
78…Banjo Bay 9/2
75…Sans Limites 4/1
75…Wishful Heart 5/2
74…Hobb’s Flight 20/1
72…The Bucket Boy 20/1
68…Maybe Baby 125/1
??…Kalamata Baby 14/1
An open looking event - most of the runners with some sand form.
In spite of the poor draw shall include Kalamata Baby in the PA because of STP’s record at VS and probably the erratic Sans Limites who appears better with blinkers.
R4 MR64F 1450m (90.90secs)
89…Pigeon Power 33/10
86…Summer Sari 33/10
81…Zena’s Own 8/1
80…Spiritofamphitrite 10/1
80…Danielle 40/1
??…Sweet Candy 8/1
??…Trendy Babe 12/1
Typical tricky VS race with most of the contenders having better form than their last run. Pigeon Power disappointed somewhat lto, then again I may have over rated the Miss K race (27th June- first 11 within 4.25 lengths of winner). Sweet Candy and Trendy Babe are interesting.
R5 MR64F 1000m (59.80)
87…Melli Mou 5/2
87…Boujis 7/1
86…Shiver’n Shake 4/1
84…Scarlet Veil 11/2
77…Extraordinaire 14/1
74…Star Voyager 40/1
74…Styling 33/1
??…Countess Grace 11/2
Ditto this race.
Boujis has shown the best consistent form before poor last run (big class jump)…very closely rated between top 4 and the untried Countess Grace ‘clouds’ the issue. Countess Bacardi has some fair sand history, albeit this time last year, yet from this draw and a stable ‘in form’ she could easily upset here. Be aware of draw results from race 1 as a probable influence here.
R6 MR64F 1000m (59.80)
86…Planet Queen 4/1
85…Pleasure Jet 4/1
85…Favourite Daughter 12/1
81…Carousel 10/1
80…Figurine 7/1
78…Beautiful Dawn 16/1
Getting harder, a real dilemma... pin job or the known favoured draws.
Savannah Montana, on best run (over a year ago), could be a ‘serious’ contender.
R7 MR80 1200m (73.00)
102…Hang Fire 33/10
100…Bareback 9/2
..96…Hallowed 10/1
..95…Where’s My Chop 4/1
..92… Escape Clause 9/2
Sound form here and Hang Fire shaping up as the days PA banker, having won twice in MR80 races within the last year and PS to ‘nurse’ him the extra 200m. Bareback and Hallowed to be included in P6.
R8 MR72 1600m (100.50)
105…Velddrifter 33/10
..96…Muthiah Pillai 33/1
..95…Lord Hawke 10/1
..94…Ligeti 6/1
..94…Rashaad 8/1
..91…King’s Joy 8/1
..91…Divine Invitation 14/1
Rare for winners to double up next time out in handicaps on the sand (Lord Hawke, Ligeti, Rashaad, King’s Joy, Divine Invitation, African Flame to name some here), yet Velddrifter was impressive lto and looks well ahead of the handicapper. Contrary to the ‘experienced patterns’ going with him and Ligeti…the Muthiah Pillai figure is from a year ago yet can be legit and may surprise, likely to be included in the P6.
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