How important are the weights?

Nickname Wrote:

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> I had a nice discussion with a jockey/workrider
> the other day about the weight a horse has to
> carry in a race...
>
> In my opinion it does matter if we talk about a 8
> kilogram difference between 2 horses. However I
> always have to smile a little bit if I hear a
> commentator say "and there is a 1 or 2 kilogram
> weight turnaround / penalty"...
>
> If a horse is between 500 and 600 kilogram, we
> talk about 0.2% or 0.4% of the horse his own
> weight. Does this really make a difference? In my
> opinion there are more important things to look at
> when studying the card. Am I wrong and should I
> pay more attention to the weights studying the
> card?

Nick 0.2% and 0.4% equates to 2 meters and 4 meters respectively over 1000 meters. So yes I would say that weight differences are material to the outcome of a race and that the further the race the more weight counts.

yes it does but progressive horses tend to defy weight penalties.....and then there's the question of well/badly handicapped....and then there's other factors at play like jockeyship/draw/distance/etc whose effect maybe mistaken for weight....

the nice thing about the weight handicapping is that it confuses the bookies also, so if you can master it you'll get nice prices unlike in races where every man and his dog can see best horse in the race....

A horses weight compared to another shouldnt tell you much about the contest.

Of course weight carried is important - and in terms of the 500 kg horse and the 520 kg horse, this is not 'dead' weight; the issue that most 'pundits' have different views on, is if weight is more important over longer distances than over sprints; I don't think it has been conclusively proved one way or the other, for me personally I am of the opinion that weight becomes more of a factor the longer the trip is (and I calculate race performance taking that into account) - however I won't be dumbstruck if someone proves this theory wrong.

What is irrelevant imo is the utterences that Horse A has a hard task in a handicap because it is carrying 62 kg's, while horse B only carries 54 kg's - Horse A earned his weight and the fact that he is carrying 62 kg's should not detract from his chances. It could be a different matter however if one believes that Horse A has been over-rated and should only carry 60 kg's.

And weight carried is supposedly different to weight pulled. Harness racing say weight (up to a point I am sure) is immaterial.

Deauville Vichy Cecil Torture

The issue of weights must be put into the correct context, I get so irritated when pundits say its difficult to win straight after a maiden win, that may be the case in a novice or graduation but surely a recent maiden winner or even maidens are normally well in handicaps. On a daily basis 1st time handicappers win in the UK!!!

FC Wrote:

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> The issue of weights must be put into the correct
> context, I get so irritated when pundits say its
> difficult to win straight after a maiden win, that
> may be the case in a novice or graduation but
> surely a recent maiden winner or even maidens are
> normally well in handicaps. On a daily basis 1st
> time handicappers win in the UK!!!


Not so for fillies.................Stats show only 15% of fillies that win a maiden race in the UK,win next time out in a handicap.

Normally I prefer fillies carrying less weight

Lucky_Dude Wrote:

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> Normally I prefer fillies carrying less weight


but its the hravies that can take a pounding

rob faux Wrote:

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> FC Wrote:
>

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>

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> > The issue of weights must be put into the
> correct
> > context, I get so irritated when pundits say
> its
> > difficult to win straight after a maiden win,
> that
> > may be the case in a novice or graduation but
> > surely a recent maiden winner or even maidens
> are
> > normally well in handicaps. On a daily basis
> 1st
> > time handicappers win in the UK!!!
>
>
> Not so for fillies.................Stats show only
> 15% of fillies that win a maiden race in the
> UK,win next time out in a handicap.


15% is not to bad...what the stats locally?

FC Wrote:

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> rob faux Wrote:
>

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>

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> > FC Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > The issue of weights must be put into the
> > correct
> > > context, I get so irritated when pundits say
> > its
> > > difficult to win straight after a maiden win,
> > that
> > > may be the case in a novice or graduation but
> > > surely a recent maiden winner or even maidens
> > are
> > > normally well in handicaps. On a daily basis
> > 1st
> > > time handicappers win in the UK!!!
> >
> >
> > Not so for fillies.................Stats show
> only
> > 15% of fillies that win a maiden race in the
> > UK,win next time out in a handicap.
>
>
> 15% is not to bad...what the stats locally?

In the time I have been comparing ,local is fairy similar............a point to note is that the 15% is made up almost entirely of those that win their maidens in their first 3 runs!!