THIS IDIOT IS BACK AND ROASTING THE JULY!

My issues with SARS have, at long last, been resolved. In my favour. But the experience does serve to remind one how intimidating it can be when an organ of the state chooses to ‘try it on’ without the flimsiest justification for doing so other than because they can.

Nevertheless I shall not be tossing my hard fought refund into the melting pot known as the Vodacom July!

Scotia – with no odds on favourite you must be swerving, mate. What’s a man to do with 5/1 the field?

But let’s have a good look at this particular three ring circus. And please bear in mind that this is definitely not meant to be taken seriously before you start abusing me.

So off to Durban we go………

Gold Circle – home of the cabbage patch tracks, power failures, non-functioning stalls and the endless parade of low MR handicaps. The pulse really quickens.

Whatever your selection you start off by lining up against 19 opponents – all of whom are trying. That’s a first if you compare it to the normal day-to-day fare. So you theoretically have an approximately 5% chance of hitting the target.

But wait – whilst STILL betting to a confiscatory 130% despite having pocketed the readies on, amongst others, no less than three ante-post favourites who failed to line up – the satchel bearers continue to offer some pretty skinny pricing.

I have always believed that the best way to look at the July is to turn the betting upside down and continue from there. It often pays to lose interest as soon as you reach single figures. So let’s try this method again.

LOVESTRUCK : If there was a prize for the most poorly campaigned horse insofar as July preparation strategy is concerned then this one would surely be a contender. It ran last week without much conviction. So if it wins it will be either a.) A miracle or b.) Was it given an easy? Nice ethical behaviour. On the positive side we can all be thankful that the trainer has found nothing better to attend in the UK this weekend.

GOTHIC : Most maligned runner in the field. Form suggests it is quite some way off being a joke of a runner.

WILD ONE : I have seen weaker form than this. But then I suppose it all hinges on the ‘as yet unproven’ strength of the 3 yr olds.

TRIBAL DANCE : Has beaten Blake, English Garden & Jet Explorer. I am trying to get excited but failing dismally.

DO YOU REMEMBER : Unfortunately – if you have been campaigning against Cherry On The Top nobody does remember. But I do remember when Geoff sent out a filly to run close up third (?) in the July some years ago. Would she not have made better sense in the Garden Province? Scratch that – there are some PROPER Grade 1 fillies entered there!

NO WORRIES : I battle to imagine a Kahal winning the July. But surely recent form must give this one a sniff? Or should we all be wise and reflect on the horses that finished in a heap in the Daily News and treat the form with circumspection ? Hmmmm.

E-JET : Naaah. Just can’t have it.

PUNTA ARENAS : This horse ticks a few boxes. Whatever that means. The one box which it DOES NOT tick is the old ‘This trainer knows how to win a July’ cliché. Not. Then suddenly I remember some of the names of those July winning trainers who have gone before and anything is possible.

HEAVY METAL ; My type of music. But not my type of horse. Rock on.

SEAL : There are three things I like about this horse apart from the fact that it is a Silvano. I respect the form of the Jubilee as a prep run, it stays and it has heart. And has form over 2450 under 63kg. Phew.

WAGNER : No disrespect but you would label this one as a ‘journeyman’ if it were a sportsman. I’m still struggling to get over the way in which a succession of race callers have butchered its name – it’s named after a famous composer of operas. Not a dog trainer. But that’s what you get when your reading has never extended beyond Computaform.

SHOGUNNAR: Where do they find these horses? Can’t have this one despite what looks like patches of OK form.

ASTRO NEWS : I’ll be generous – more needed.

WHITELINE FEVER : I was mildly surprised to see this one bought for R700k a couple of years back. Shows how little I know. I will be a lot more surprised if it wins the July. I don’t believe it gets this trip.

HILL FIFTY FOUR : Fair form. Good jockey. OK draw. But best form is centered around pretenders like Punta Arenas and Xmas horse Martial Eagle. I don’t know if it makes sense to take Act Of God events such as the 2013 Met as serious formlines.

WYLLIE HALL : I could almost buy this one as a winner until I consider the following : Wyllie Hall wins Vodacom July. It sounds strange. Correction – it sounds stupid. Like an Albert Hall colt winning the big one.

CAPETOWN NOIR : There are a number of things you need to reflect on here! Firstly – because he is not favourite you can immediately discard the dreaded ‘K Factor’ ( the albatross hanging around the neck of all short priced favourites trained by Kannemeyer, Kruyer & Kotzen ). Good start. Second – he has actually won Grade 1 events. Third – supporters could argue he was s-l-i-g-h-t-l-y impeded when failing to overhaul Vercingetorix in the Daily News. Fourth – we have Honest Karl on a middlepin and not the favourite. Need I go on?

Lastly – the lemmings would probably have formed a queue to take 3/1 had Vercingetorix accepted so what’s wrong with 15/2 for a short head?

JET EXPLORER : I don’t rate the 1900 as a pointer. And, yes, I know the conditions have changed.

RUN FOR IT : This horse would have been better off drawn 20 than 1 as he is often sluggish at the start so is likely to be out of his ground in the early stages despite having had his gonads removed. When Snaith was last competitive in this race he had a PROPER racehorse in Dancer’s Daughter. So where would we rank this one in comparison? And at 9/2 ?

POMODORO : Last year jumped unfancied at 28/1 and won. Now topweight and favourite. Does that mean that you would install Martial Eagle as favourite in next year’s Met if he re-appeared? It makes little or no sense.

Few of these horses stand up to any sort of real critical evaluation. This is a real potboiler for scrubbers. The operators should be loving this as it looks like a lottery, smells like a lottery and could produce a lottery type result.

I think I will tickle up the Chiefs at 2/1 in a far smaller field to win the Super 15. Even if they end up losing to the Crusaders on Saturday they still look like a reasonable proposition.

I put it to you as grown men and women – can we honestly weigh up this quasi horse race in all seriousness without bursting out laughing? Lighten up and treat it as the low brow entertainment that it is.

After the weekend the Chiefs may be 25/10, hold your horses...

Glad to have you back Garrick

gregbucks Wrote:

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> After the weekend the Chiefs may be 25/10, hold
> your horses...


I'm hoping for that, G! ( See my bet requests on Interbet at 5/2 ). Lol.

Congrats Garrick. Love it when Sars get klapped.(tu)

Brilliant Garrick! Like the fact that Punta Arenas got the least roasted!

Looking at the pride of Cape Town Met race this year, not much change from that field compared to the July, a few omissions being
Jackson, Beach Beauty, Bravura and King of Pain.

Did not see any Met bashing write up by the author slating the quality of that field and at least we will NOT have a 7 year old winner this July like the 80 / 1 Martial Eagle that won the so called prestigious MET.

P.S. The Summer Cup was also referred to as SUMMER SQUIB by the author.:S(td)

Glad u came right Garrick
You are correct this is not a scotia July, however did take Jet Explorer ew at 25/1 on advice from Snaith and Bob
Only fancy Happy Valentine as a punt on the day to cover drinks with Molly
Txs for post and hope u are well?

Once again....good stuff Garrick....(tu)

scotia Wrote:

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> Glad u came right Garrick
> You are correct this is not a scotia July, however
> did take Jet Explorer ew at 25/1 on advice from
> Snaith and Bob
> Only fancy Happy Valentine as a punt on the day to
> cover drinks with Molly
> Txs for post and hope u are well?


Dave this rain will do no harm to Jet Explorer's chances. (tu)

What rain? It's dry at the pub tonight, just have to wake up in time to catch the plane, will have just one for the road

LAST ROUNDS GENTS!

Please

Managed a couple of hours sleep and getting ready for the off!