PE favorites have the lowest strike rate in the country....

hibernia Wrote:

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> Wouter Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Nice if you look for the roughies....
> > I see Blouperd and Loopy did well today and
> took
> > home some nice dosh...
>
>
> Its how the pro punters survive,when the going
> gets tough the tough get going..

explains why i dont get going...

The problem for me with PE is not necessarily that the favs are beaten but how far they are beaten and the horses they are beaten by. And it is not just favs, it is horses from the same stable where the more fancied one is beaten by their stablemate(s).

Race 1 won by a 20/1 first timer. Fair enough. The 55/1 runner-up was trained by Alan Greef. The third was the 10/11, also trained by AG. His third runner was 5th at 10/1. M Wiess had his 6/1 shot finish behind his other two runners, both 70/1.

Race 2 Alan Greef said of his 40/1 winner that she was a nice filly which is fair enough but it was the horse's first run in PE. He also had the 28/10 fav run 3rd in the race. Yvette Bremners 25/1 shot finished ahead of her 12/1 shot.

Race 3 Shams saddled the third backed in from 20s to 12s, beating their other runner at 7/1

Race 4 Tara Laing saddled the second at 22/1, her more fancied 12/1 runner was 14th of 15. Gav Smith trained the 33/10 fav who finished behind one of his other three runners, a 10/1 shot.

Race 5 Winner was having first run in PE for over a year. Mitch W had the second at 22/1 with another two runners further down the field, 8/1 and 10/1 shots.

Race 6 Gav Smith's 7/1 shot finished behind his 33/1 shot (third runner further behind at 35/1)

Race 7 Gav Smith said of his 33/1 winner (backed in from 66s) that it was simply a horse that you had to catch perfect on a particular day. He also saddled the fav, 9th home at 9/2 and a 12/1 shot who finished 16th of 18. SJV Rensburg's 45/1 shot was 4th, well infront of his 14/1 runner who was backed from 40s to 14s.

Race 8 Snaith saddled the winner at 16/1, his 8/1 shot was 4th. The third was Yvette Bremner's 33/1 shot, her 14/1 shot was 7th.

Race 9 I mentioned Yvette Bremner today on the thread, jockey stated the trainer had advised him the horse was a big runner in the conditions. Yvette made no mention of this when interviewed after race 1. Same jockey won the 8th and made no mention of it in that post-race interview. Horse won at 33/1 while her other runner, backed from 20s to 7/1 earlier in the day managed 5th. Snaith's 9/2 fav finished 16/17 with his 22/1 shot finishing infront (but by only 2 places!).

Now, I haven't gone through all that to accuse trainers of dishonesty or anything like that. I have gone through it to demonstrate how difficult it is for punters. We all can't be that stupid to back the wrong horse of a trainer so many times... though obviously there were instances where the more supported horse from a stable finished ahead of their stable-mate(s). And yes, some of them may have excuses, but we will probably not hear of those excuses. What may help is a little more effort in terms of transparency from PE, the Shams aside the lack of "assistance" from that centre is dreadful. And where does all this leave the punter... I haven't decided yet but its not in a good place! How can we use this information, we can't really! Anyway, enough from me, just wanted to highlight part of the problem for me with punting in PE.

fark Englander....I havent read all of your post above....but good to see you back bud.... the zest (tu)(tu)

hibernia Wrote:

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> Wouter Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Nice if you look for the roughies....
> > I see Blouperd and Loopy did well today and
> took
> > home some nice dosh...
>
>
> Its how the pro punters survive,when the going
> gets tough the tough get going..


well said , i am just lucky hibs

Thank you both for the well wishes:)-D

keniza999 Wrote:

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> what could be the reason?????

Probably because PE favourites are, on average, the most longest priced?

Hey Englaner....have u got a day job? great analysis and spot on in your assumptions.....often very strange results from PE!

?......also a factor is that the horses are very mediocre and sent there to earn before going to stud (mares)
got out of it eventually on the last race where I backed a rather exotically bred mare that owes me......had some good place bets on horses debut from other centres......one actually won.....kicking myself for going off a selection where I fancied a 33/1 shot and replaced it with a more fancied stable companion.......seem to find the rough stuff regularly but land up giving it back through the weekends where the okes really pull moves of the betting type.......: no one commented on last night........:S

WESTERN EXPLORER Wrote:

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> Hey Englaner....have u got a day job? great
> analysis and spot on in your assumptions.....often
> very strange results from PE!

I "study" SA racing WE, as I was making a healthy profit from it, including PE... in fact I may even go as far as to say 18 months ago it was my favourite centre. Now I am becoming disillusioned with it so considering packing it in, but my personal life is a little complicated so options are hugely restricted regarding work, shant bore you with the details

Important point WE, I made no assumptions. In that little "epic" I scribbled there is nothing but fact.

BP can tell me I am wrong, and I have nothing but respect for someone who captures a JP as he did yesterday, but it does seem to me it is only those with a fair amount of financial security that play such large exotics. Yes, some of us play for 1% occasionally but I have to say when I do so I often think that it is a pointless exercise. He won 25000 for a 2800 outlay. At 1% you win 250 for 28 which is nothing really, I would rather risk my R28 on a 10/1 shot. Now, I am in no way being detrimental to BP in saying that, he seems very good at doing the exotics and full credit to him but I don't have that amount of my money to stake on a "single" bet and the money I do have I would rather invest in patents etc, just the way different people operate with the amount they have to put down. And doing the exotics may well be the better bet now in PE as in many ways it covers you for the shocks. The P6 for eg allows you to cover the stablemate horses so a lot of the shocks above have less impact.

Back to PE overall, the simple fact is that it is clear from my analysis above that punters are often struggling to choose the best horse from a stable (on a given day) let alone the winner from the other 14 or whatever runners. Not that it doesn't happen elsewhere., but it does seem to occur pretty regularly at PE. How much is due to dishonesty from any given party, who knows? Would things improve if the trainers etc were more transparent, who knows? Would things improve if trainers were only permitted one horse entry per race, probably, but who knows? Now I like the Shams and I would love to love PE racing again but the simple fact is that the message being screamed at us is... don't bet here!!! Depending on how lucky we feel or how stupid we are will determine how much we listen to that message. If we listen then PE racing is in trouble, if we don't then I suspect I'll be writing the same in 6-12 months time

Agreed - taking full perms etc, suits the bigger punter...
As for the R20-00 punter it is a different ball game...

Oh... and I would like to add... for any trainers, owners, jocks etc involved in PE racing who might this read this...

I AM NOT HAVING A GO AT YOU!!!! and if you ever met me you would probably think I am a very reasonable person (though of course I come over as looking a little arrogant with the pipe sticking out my mouth lol... I am merely showing the frustrations of a punter playing in PE. As I said, I would love to love PE racing again, I would just like to work towards a way of making that happen, should it be possible.

excellent observations on pe racing englander.i stopped punting their ages ago,unless i see a good horse from ct going down for a feature race.pe racing is good for gamblers who play exotics and like to play the lotto,as for me i like to punt on the nose and in pe that is just too difficult to do,but for the lotto players its good because anything goes in pe.

im a bit surprised to see that jhb has the 2nd worst percentage of favs winning and to me it shows how the std of horses and trainers hv dropped in that region over the last decade.also surprised to see ct has highest percentage of favs winning wen almost everyone complains abt cape racing, wen the stats show the fav punters at least hv a chance there.

i guess it all comes down to preference and past experiences punting at certain centres.at the end of the day no matter wat anyone says all a punter needs is plenty of luck and good discipline to try to stay in the game,no matter wat stakes they play because they always come back for more,no matter how much they complain abt a centre because they are addicts and even if they win on a day it all goes back into the pot over time and thats why so few punters can show a profit on racing over extended periods of time.

interesting points there Englander....

perhaps the trainers are as suprised as the rest of us at the form reversals.....

it probably is a great center to play exotics but one has to have deep pockets to consider all the possible contenders in a bet....