Turffontein Saturday

Discuss Saturdays meeting from Turffontein below...

Hibs is BACK !!!!!!

Good evening fella's. Turfies tomorrow promises great weather and a good day's racing. 9 races carded including The Egoli Mile, Storm Bird Stakes, Ruffian Stakes (No Roughies here) and the VAR Gold Rush Sprint. A competitive looking card but I'll get right to it. For those not interested, please skip the next 4 pages

Race 1 : 10 carded to run with no scratchings thus far, 1160m to cover on the Turfontein Standside track. Let's start with the four year old ADELLA (5/1) 11 Runs 9 Places, placed 4 times at Turfontein and twice over course and distance, fourth run with the blinkers fitted and form has been consistent and she might enjoy the shorter trip. Ran off a MR81 in 2011, this filly has a chance and will go very close, 7/10 a place looks pretty guaranteed. There are nine three year olds in the race of which six are raced and three unraced. EGO BLAZER, RODEO SIOUX and SERRURIA (GB) make up the three unraced fillies, a no-hoper of the three would be RODEO SIOUX (Steels), SERRURIA (GB) is the filly which instantly catches my attention for the De Kock yard with Marcus aboard however at 12/10 it could be one to watch and perhaps one for the future, IMO will probably need a little further, but MY OPIONION only. EGO BLAZER (20/1) and the Jayes stable a little unknown for me but she will most likely drift in the betting come race day. WHERE EAGLES DARE having her fourth run with the blinkers and will find this company tough , she runs the last 400m in an average of 26 seconds and she will be fighting out last and second last with RODEO SIOUX. ROYAL COOKIES has had four runs in Kwa-Zulu Natal and with all the rain about last year has been running in soft or very soft conditions as can be seen from her last 400m to finish times, watch the betting on race day as she could be the surprise package at 50/1 with 2.5kg off her back and running on a good surface for the first time, it's also her 2nd run after a rest. ALWAYS CAMILLE from the Botes yard is having her first run after a short rest and her third run with blinkers which have helped in her last two starts, I prefer others. The Matchett runner TACIT TIGER has placed in her last two starts and comes out of the DOLORES form line, although she retains the ride of Simons which will sit off the pace slightly she will find it difficult to run on against a few others in this field. TELL MY STAR was very green in her first and only start and she will probably have come on leaps and bounds since then, she wasn't fancied in the betting last time out and it will probably be the same come race day tomorrow. ZELINA's first run was most impressive when finishing a very tight third, she boasts the quickest 400m to finish and the quickest average meter of .05871 in this field, her first run out was also around the turn on the Inside track and down the straight she should be more effective if placed just off the pace. Selections : 1st - ZELLINA 2nd - SERRURIA (GB) 3rd - ADELLA and for once I agree with Rod Bechus, lol.

Race 2 : The easiest race on tomorrows card 8 runners carded however two scratchings of ENCHANTED KINGDOM and BHANOYI. Mike De Kock seems to have all the answers with ILHA BELA and CHECCETTI, ILHA BELA looks better than her stable companion in recent form despite the weight she has to give away, she's drawn in pole position and will once again have to show her class against weaker than her last. CHECCETTI is treated well at the weights and we must remember she was up in class last time out and carrying 61.50kgs, she's drawn widest of all but Fradd will no doubt stick her up with the early pace, now down in class she could be the best bet on tomorrows card at 11/2. CHERRY ON THE CAKE won't see the trip against the De Kock runners and she would be better over a mile, although she's down in class her record on the Standside track is dissapointing. MARGHERITA LOTTI is in the wrong race and should be carrying 40.50kgs to be competitive, a chance if leaving 30 seconds before the others. HAWKER HUNTER will no doubt need the run after a short layoff, the Ferraris 5 year old Jet Master has a decent record and ran third to Ilha Bela on the 18th December 2012, she is also 4kgs better off for a four length beating however it would have been 8 lengths as ILHA BELA was geared down. LADY MUFFET unlike MARGHERITA LOTTI is in the right race and the three year old has run against some good sorts, she is well weighted, down in class and well suited to the 1800m, she takes on some older, good sorts again and will be worth a small bet @ 40/1, important to note that she will once again be fitted with blinkers but is still a three year old. Selections : 1st - CHECCETTI 2nd - ILHA BELA 3rd - LADY MUFFET

Races 3 - 9 to follow shortly...

In honour of Hibs return X( here's some jottings...

R1 The unknown is of course Serruria who, with AM up and the trainer in form, must have a very good chance if ready. I'm going to side (and stay) with Zelina though. Despite a poor start (DTF commented would likely have won) last time finished well to be beaten only 0.25l. Backed from 14s to 3s that day, stable doing ok and an inform Brown retains the ride. Extra 160 may suit and the second, Dolores, has won since beating Tacit Tiger by 2 lengths over 1160. Coming back in distance Adella should not be discounted and with 9 places from 11 starts seems sure to be in the mix. That said, on form through Hello Polly, it would seem that TT may have her measure. A complete idiots... Royal Cookie. All three sprints have been on soft at Scottsville (a course horses seemingly love or hate), decent appie up taking a little off, decent draw, last run was after a rest, on soft and also possibly too far... probably finish last but at 50s... one rand e/w anyone

R2 Get ready to be de-kocked lol as I'll be taking an e/w chance with Checcetti. Decent course record, excellent distance record and won only try c and d. The price on Ilha Bela is too short for me, last time she was on 2nd run after a rest she was beaten 9l by Zambucca over this c and d with Hawker Hunter (4kgs better off) keeping her company. She later beat HH at the same weights again over c n d (soft) by 4l. Now I am not so stupid as to necessarily think that will be repeated but at the price, I'll pass. Cherry On The Cake can't be discounted but one 3rd place in 4 course efforts and trying the distance for the first time makes her "another pass" at the prices.

R3 Many more negatives than positives for me... Gaz Man (rest and course), Mr Zogs (seemingly well held by Stimulant behind Wild Air, trainer), Roy Royale (2nd run after rest, poorly drawn), Don't Be Silly and Scientist have done nothing really to encourage any interest and the same can be said of the others with only one or two outings. That leaves us two first timers plus Stimulant and Timezone. At time of writing there is no market support for the first timers and as is usual for me, I'd prefer to concentrate on the two with the experience. They both ran behind Magnolia Man last time out with Timezone finishing about a length ahead. Although that was Stimulant's second run after a rest, I'll go with Timezone to finish infront again, particularly as he has the better draw.

R4 I think Current Event will be the likely winner and I won't oppose. The Planter may need another run though so I will leave him out in search of more value for an exacta and trifecta. Slippery Slope is my choice (and may have a small e/w idiot bet) for second. Poorly drawn when 3l behind CE over 1800 (Battle Flame) and that was his second run after a rest. Although no great form over the distance, the trainer is showing signs of form and the inform Chambers jumps on board. For third, Digital Dynasty. Has a much better draw than usual, goes the distance and PS up but now 3.5kgs worse off than when 8l behind CE over 2000 (R Stallone). Nothing else appealed at all.

R5 Minefield lol. Spent an age looking and came to the conclusion that they all have a chance! Not going to try and state all the potentials etc but I ended up deciding to chance an e/w with Invierno with the places going to Casey Novak and The King and I. And I am not looking again as every time I see the card I say to myself, I liked that one, why did you choose Invierno ahead of it... etc etc lol

R6 I'm likely to again go with experience. Of those I prefer Jimmy Choo. Finished 7 lengths ahead of Gems A Plenty (who had already had a run) on debut compared to the 3l American Pie beat Gems by, and in that race it was AP who had previous experience. Olympic Owen won convincingly at Bingo Park when well backed and could be anything, interestingly he appears to have found some support again. It just doesn't sit well with me though that his debut was at Bingo but, that may just be a mental block I have lol. Likely I'll go win Jimmy C in accumulators.

R7 Money seemingly around for a few of the first timers, particularly Calypso Bay and a market watch (as with all races of this type imo) is probably to be recommended. For The Lads with PS up would seem the obvious one of those with experience but Striking Alice did the form no favours next time out and I am, probably wrongly, not convinced. No places from those who have run from the race Raving Queen won. All of which leads me, somewhat reluctantly, to Lady Morgana. The subsequent form from her race is also nothing to shout about but she was well supported on debut and could do no more than win comfortably. The 14 week rest is something of a concern but, at the prices, she would be my small e/w selection as things stand. I am very much open to persuasion in a different direction though...

R8 De Var Hyt cost me last time out when defying a big weight swing with the very consistent of late, Turbo Tom. In another tough race, I'll stick with him e/w as I was quite impressed with that run. Although Brown stays with Zuccarelli, I think Stavinsky looks fairly good e/w value and he'll form my exacta, Zucc did finish ahead of DVH behind Rodeo Dandy but hopefully DVH was simply not at his best that day. At 25s Virtuosity would definitely have been a recommended idiot bet but hard to do so at 9s, hopefully though he will still add value to a trifecta.

R9 Tired and glad to have got here! lol Not backing Archerfeld at that price. Following the line behind Wall Fly and taking the draw into consideration, I'll go with Tuscan Lass e/w to be followed in by Miss America and Madame Ming.

WP... am immediately visiting Hwood for a first two races double -D

r1 zellina
r2 cherry on the cake
r3 gaz man
r4 digital dynasty
r5 casey novak
r6 alpha male
r7 virgos babe
r8 stavinsky
r9 pretty lady

Englander Wrote:

---

> In honour of Hibs return X( here's some
> jottings...
>

> R5 Minefield lol. Spent an age looking and came to
> the conclusion that they all have a chance! Not
> going to try and state all the potentials etc but
> I ended up deciding to chance an e/w with Invierno
> with the places going to Casey Novak and Spandau
> Ballet. And I am not looking again as I every time
> I see the card I say to myself, I liked that one,
> why did you choose Invierno ahead of it... etc etc
> lol

BOOM, you're one step ahead Englander. lol.

Race 3 : 13 carded runners, very interesting contest. 7 three year olds in the race two of which are trained by Laird whom we all know has been on fire of late, interesting that Shea gets the ride on Stimulant. Three runners here all having their first runs after been gelded MAURI BLUE, OKLAHOMA TRIPPI and the 4/1 shot ROY ROYALE, they are all three year olds. The two five year olds are... GAZ MAN, he's had 27 attempts to get into the number one box and despite running three seconds and a fourth has a record on the Standside track that's way worse than any other in this field, Rod Bechus tips him for 2nd and although not the strongest field I think it'll finish 2nd last. SCIENTIST is another who's had 27 attempts to break his maiden and tomorrow despite the 4.00kgs allowance and the blinkers will complete 28 runs the same. STIMULANT having his third run after a rest and prefers the Vaal straight and looks a little vunerable over the 1400m, I prefer others. A no hoper here SADDLE BAGS (Steels). TIMEZONE, MR ZOGS, DON'T BE SILLY and BABSY are all four year olds, here is my summary on each... MR ZOGS (Can't run around the right hand turn) DON'T BE SILLY, well just don't (Also can't run around the right hand turn) BABSY (4 year old only having it's second run) TIMEZONE looks the best of the three and will most likely have to come from last to run a place, has a decent 400m to finish and will most likely fill the back end of trifecta's. FIGHTING FORCE is one of two first timers tomorrow and will most likely need the outing. EMIRATES LINKS was gelded on the 27th August 2012 and with little information besides the stable being bang on form I will have to make this my first selection. 1st - EMIRATES LINKS 2nd - ROY ROYALE (AUS) 3rd - MR ZOGS on his best form.

My main plays, will try to edit if non-runners...

Idiots...
T R1 4 Royal Cookie
T R4 4 Slippery Slope
D R2 5 The Delegator

Semi-idiots...
T R5 11 Invierno
T R7 2 Lady Morgana
D R4 4 Air Dancer

Pipe Smokers...
T R1 10 Zelina
T R8 2 De Var Hyt
D R5 7 Rose Bay Moon

Win Treble...
T R6 1 Jimmy Choo
D R2 2 Royal Var
D R7 3 Princess Salme

Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)

Race 4 : Englander has wrapped this race up nicely, CURRENT EVENT a certain PA and Pick 6 banker, the further this three year old goes the better he performs. A certain champion for the future.

Race 5 : Egoli Mile and a very open contest. 16 runners carded with two scratchings namely RAKAAN (ARG) and the Maroun runner NATIONAL BOUNTY. GRAY'S CHAMP and SNAPPY LAD are both from the Van Zyl stable of which GRAY'S CHAMP looks the most likely to topple the stable companion. AMERICAN STORM was a scratching if I'm correct in the 1st leg of the tripple crown and has a tough barrier position to overcome. On form AMERICAN STORM is 1kg worse off at the weights with GRAY'S CHAMP for a 1.20 length beating and although the barrier position tilts us in the corner of GRAY'S CHAMP it's easy to forget that on their last meeting GRAY'S CHAMP was in barrier 1 and AMERICAN STORM 7. De Kocks only runner in this field ROCK COCKTAIL (AUS) has been rested for 157 days and has enjoyed his running in Kwa-Zulu Natal, a certain runner is a very open race. THE KING AND I, INVIERNO and SERISSA are all from the Tarry stable of which INVIERNO looks the best option, he tends to pull hard in the race and Lembethe will have to settle him quicky to have a chance, a tallented three year old nevertheless with a good barrier position and a juicy 52.5kgs to shoulder. DUAL ASSET is the Ferraris runner and is better off at the weights with INVIERNO and is only one of two three time winners in the race but it must be mentioned that Mariba will have his work cut out and will have to come from off the pace to stand a chance.BAY of BENGAL looks a decent sort and is always thereabouts, he takes on much stronger today with blinkers fitted for the second time, it's also he's 2nd run after a rest and will most likely need the run. DOUBLE BIND has a decent course and distance record and ran 1.75 lengths behing Alexander Palace after loosing 1 - 2 lengths, one gets the opinion that he may prefer further, however it remains a decent EW selection for some and might be the one they all have to beat. SPANDUA BALLET is another Laird runner for today and certainly has merit by following the betting at 15/20 on his last two starts, SPANDUA BALLET is a very progressive sought and should be respected come race day. ANTARCTIC CALL from the Erasmus stable is another who ran behind Alexander Palace and more importantly another who enjoys the Standside track as shown when beating Taptap Makhatini over the 1600m on the 01st Decemeber 2012, 9/1 seems more than fair and must be respected. CASEY NOVAK from the in form Woodruff stable and the winning stable of Tellina punch another blow in what must be the most open race on today's card, with Fradd aboard and a 400m to finish of 23.00 seconds, he cannot be ignored. Although untested over course and distance it remains one to be respected and another at a decent price of 13/2. Last but not least WYLIE HALL (AUS), yet another contender and must also be respected at 16/1, with an impressive turn of foot and 52.00kgs to shoulder it's hard to fault the Marwing runner. Selection : 1st - INVIERNO 2nd - AMERICAN STORM 3rd - ANTARCTIC CALL 4th - WYLIE HALL

Race 6 : Storm Bird Stakes and 10 runners carded with the important scratching of Willow Magic (AUS) who would have given Lembethe his double on the day with INVIERNO (tu) but it's not to be. All two year olds so like i've said before anything could happen, of the remaining nine runners five are first timers and as Englander mentioned there has been support for the Spies runner VELVET VERONA who i'd prefer to slide one side even although National Assembly does look attractive. WARBASH, RED BULL KID, KING'S SOLDIER and ALPHA MALE will most likely need the run, this includes VELVET VERONA who will follow suite. The remaining raced runners include JIMMI CHOO, OLYMPIC OWEN, AMERICAN PIE and TULBAGH TRIP. I'm going to break it down a little so you can understand where my thinking has been planted...

OLYMPIC OWEN : 0m to 1000m in 59.65 at Flamingo on the sand which is impressive. Will he win on the Turf? No, because he's from Flamingo and we all know that 1/1000 runners from Flamingo actually win up here, should remain on the sand and will notch up second victory next time out,

AMERICAN PIE : 0m to 1000m in 58.06, 400m to finish in 23.2 seconds and average per meter is 0.5867. Will SHE win on the Turf? No. because she's a filly and although by VAR she will miss by FAR,

JIMMY CHOO : 0m to 1000m in 56.36, 400m to finish in 22.5 seconds and average per meter is 0.5716, figures even Franny would be proud of. Will he win on the Turf? It's not really the question, it's more like how many lengths will he win by? A big prospect for the future and one to follow,

TULBAGH TRIP : Will improve, R1.1 million Trippi - must be more to come, watch the betting.

Selection : 1st - JIMMY CHOO 2nd - TULBAGH TRIP 3rd - VELVET VERONA

Race 7 : Ruffian Stakes and another contested over 1000m for 2 year old fillies. Well some expensive soughts and only one with any collateral form whatsoever in the form of RAVING QUEEN, although a Kwa-Zulu Natal raider she seems to be improving the right way but will surely have her work cut out against some really nice fillies in this field. 18 carded with the scratching of BOARDING CALL, although FELLAN now a runner AMOROSO will have to wait for a further scratching. There are eight first timers here from the remaining 16 runners, a few which caught my attention are CALYPSO GIRL, NO GOOD DEED, SPIAGGIA (BRZ) and WINTER PASSION of which the latter would be the obvious choice for a number of reasons (WINTER PASSION) 1. Fradd aboard 2. Ferreira only runner on the day 3. VAR 4. 375k 5. Decent betting support. LADY MORGANA has been layed off for 95 days and as Englander mentioned does spark a worry. FOR THE LADS another Trippi with Striker aboard however has a very wide draw on the Standside track and will surely have too much to do with 400m remaining (Depends on the going). SAMBA SERENADE should improve from her last start but I do prefer others. The remaining raced fillies include STRIKING ALICE, VIRGO'S BABE and MISS SEATTLE, with the scratching of BOARDING CALL the latter seems the best choice and in a field such as this is most likely to run them off their feet at a decent price of 16/1, my reasons for MISS SEATTLE (400m to finish 22.8 seconds, average time per meter .05779 and by far the best course and distance form on the Standside track in this field, she loves running this filly and will enjoy the trip today with 55kgs and a decent draw (depending on the going) Selection : 1st - MISS SEATTLE 2nd - WINTER PASSION 3rd - FOR THE LADS

Race 8 and 9 to follow after a cup of coffee tomorrow morning.