5/6 IGUGU

This post reminds me just how stupid we, as punters, can be and why bookmakers flourish in the long term.

Here we have clansmen lining up like the usual lemmings to take odds on about a horse under the following known conditions :

1.) First run for over a year.

2.) First run in Dubai.

3.) Is she running on grass or a dirt track? If it is the latter - then another first : First time on a different surface.

4.) The trainer is on record as being quietly cautious. ( See Tellytrack interview from February 20th ).

5.) Is she fully wound up? ( My reading of the De Kock interview is that she may not be 100% for this run ).

Given all of the above - Why do you want to steam in as if she is a 'good thing' ? What do you stand to gain at 7/10?

If you are desperate for a bet you can usually find a UK hurdles race on most afternoons where there are only two 'runners' and you would probably get evens by backing both!

I understand that you might be a fan of the horse but why not wait until she contests a race where you know she is fully fit and ready?

Garrick Wrote:

---

> This post reminds me just how stupid we, as
> punters, can be and why bookmakers flourish in the
> long term.
>
> Here we have clansmen lining up like the usual
> lemmings to take odds on about a horse under the
> following known conditions :
>
> 1.) First run for over a year.
>
> 2.) First run in Dubai.
>
> 3.) Is she running on grass or a dirt track? If it
> is the latter - then another first : First time on
> a different surface.
>
> 4.) The trainer is on record as being quietly
> cautious. ( See Tellytrack interview from February
> 20th ).
>
> 5.) Is she fully wound up? ( My reading of the De
> Kock interview is that she may not be 100% for
> this run ).
>
> Given all of the above - Why do you want to steam
> in as if she is a 'good thing' ? What do you stand
> to gain at 7/10?
>
> If you are desperate for a bet you can usually
> find a UK hurdles race on most afternoons where
> there are only two 'runners' and you would
> probably get evens by backing both!
>
> I understand that you might be a fan of the horse
> but why not wait until she contests a race where
> you know she is fully fit and ready?


Totally agree
Hope she wins,but it's a watching brief rather than a punting one

A place bet on Mushreq would be more tempting at similar odds.

Excellent deductions by Garrick, I would say Mike de Kock is quietly optimistic but Godolphin do have 3 in the race and therefore a pacemaker role is one of them and the 2nd fav has already won at Meydan and run at the top UK tracks so is no slouch.

Also Igugu has not really excelled on a left hand track, remember she did get beat in the Cape Fillies Guineas and the Met was a heart-stopper so tread warily.

We are gamblers. <

Ull never get 7/10 again about Igugu against weakish opposition

win or lose its a chance
Igugu all the way.

SOFT FALLING RAIN first run in dubai really showed them and Igugu should win maybe under a harder ride.
Would have wanted Hannigan on board though or delphech

After watching Winning Ways,Mdk didnt sound confident at all.
Igugu's reputation locally supeceeds his lack thereof.
Sad the part owner,nor his elected spokesperson(Nico K) will be in attendance tonight.

Question is,what can really beat her in this field?
Ive punted lilys angel in the UK last year.Shes got strong graded race form
Previously a Fahey/Hanangan combo.

We all know Igugu always races handy.Wonder what the tactics will be tonight.
this time small field -NO upset!

Lilly`s Angel is Honest but if Igugu is what we think she is and half fit would beat her running backwards

The other way of considering having a bet on "Igugu" is would you rather have a bet on a "champ" at 15/20 or a jumper with no background and potential faller at Wincanton?
I am aware of negatives but if she is right would be 4/10

Imvho

In addition and admit small liquidity but she is trading at 7/10 on Betfair on an international market so where are you going to find a local bookie to "match" an exchange price

I have been wrong before

paddy 8/11 now