ODDS-ON ABATTOIR OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Whilst waiting for the big sporting events to start on Saturday I switched to Tellytrack.

Three odds-on favourites ran in quick succession. One ( Fly By Night ) won whilst two ( Brooks Club & Pounce ) were beaten.

Punting 1.01 and old racegoers have always cautioned against backing odds-on shots. Yet punters still seem to line up like lemmings to squander their money on these 'good things'.

I'll pause a second to consider how these horses are punted to the extremely skinny prices that are advertised ; It seems that the betting rings are now s-o-o-o weak that even the suggestion of a 'hottie' has bookmakers scurrying to hide their R500 floats under the nearest rock. From a business perspective this must have a very favourable impact on their profitability : Punters are now so used to seeing an unending succession of favourites in the red that they appear to think little of taking prices of 5/10 (or worse ). In much the same fashion as I was used to taking 15/10 on average when I started racing in the 70's. Then an odds-on favourite was almost noteworthy. Today an inordinate number start odds-on which must be great business on each and every occasion that one gets beaten and not exactly life threatening even when they win!

Reviewing the options that punters might have utilised it becomes clear that most ( putiing aside tote exotics for a moment ) were financially unattractive even before the horses jumped :

eg : All doubles and trebles would have died.

Punts on the nose ( which incidentally mirrored global statistics on favourites at approx one out of every three winning ) would have stacked up as follows if we illustrate the potential outcome at an assumed SP of 6/10 on each horse and R1k wagered on each :

Fly By Night R 600-R1000 wins R564 after deductions
Pounce & Brooks Club lose you R2000

Nett position -R1,436 ( Best possible upside R 1,692 against maximum downside of -R3,000 )

I appreciate that the psychological, emotional and confidence boosting effects of the act of backing winners is powerful and seductive. As is the pull of participating in an action where every sign suggests you are right. But the financial implications of backing any horse trading below 11/10 ( and therefore yielding a nett amount of just over evens if it wins ) should be avoided as an almost basic rule of betting.

And now Distinctly to that list...Nice post Garrick(tu)

Thks Garrick I'm off got Ponti :)o

True Story, Nice 1

Bookies won more on the rugby

toontony Wrote:

---

> Bookies won more on the rugby


100%

Not bad in the Cape most of the hotties arrived only the 2nd race beat, plus a few decent early prices on the hotties Terminator (tu) being the good one thanks to hotline.
Big T where Brooke's Club and the MDK being painful and I am sure the Sharks must have been in the region of 1/5?

As normal a good post from Garrick and only the Cape bookies might disagree?

thanks Hotline and well done keep them rolling