Weighted Not To Win
- brandhow
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Weighted Not To Win
13 years 4 days ago
Excuse my ignorance but exactly how important are the weights carried in determining a winner of a horserace opposed to a good or bad draw and the experience or inexperience of the jockey?
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- Bob Brogan
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- brandhow
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Re: Re: Weighted Not To Win
13 years 4 days ago
Here's a scenario:
Durban July 2012
Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony Delpech
Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie Dettori
Who wins?
Durban July 2012
Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony Delpech
Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie Dettori
Who wins?
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- PeeKay
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Re: Re: Weighted Not To Win
13 years 4 days ago
Merit ratings, current form etc. will come into the equation as well
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- brandhow
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Re: Re: Weighted Not To Win
13 years 4 days ago
But more to the point of the topic, in the BETTING WORLD JUBILEE HANDICAP (Grade 3) last saturday Seal carried 62kgs and came 5th, in the July he is set to carry 57kgs - he is not going to win the July and couldnt win a Grade 3, so isn't he an example of a horse who is weighted not to win and therefore has an MR above his ability so runs for places?
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- brandhow
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- Magi
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Re: Re: Weighted Not To Win
13 years 4 days ago
Good question and very debatable (very puny) ... I believe it is a very subjective interpretation for each individual and no hard and fast answer.
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- Deon Erasmus
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Re: Re: Weighted Not To Win
13 years 3 days ago
brandhow Wrote:
> Here's a scenario:
>
> Durban July 2012
>
> Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
>
> Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> Delpech
>
> Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> Dettori
>
> Who wins?
Hibernia, if the above horses are drawn an ridden just like above then BEACH BEAUTY wil trach the field! I hope that for some reason and luck this would happen
> Here's a scenario:
>
> Durban July 2012
>
> Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
>
> Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> Delpech
>
> Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> Dettori
>
> Who wins?
Hibernia, if the above horses are drawn an ridden just like above then BEACH BEAUTY wil trach the field! I hope that for some reason and luck this would happen
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- rubyclipper
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Re: Re: Weighted Not To Win
13 years 3 days ago
brandhow Wrote:
> Here's a scenario:
>
> Durban July 2012
>
> Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
>
> Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> Delpech
>
> Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> Dettori
>
> Who wins?
Pierre Jourdan 60kg drawn 3 wins
> Here's a scenario:
>
> Durban July 2012
>
> Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
>
> Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> Delpech
>
> Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> Dettori
>
> Who wins?
Pierre Jourdan 60kg drawn 3 wins

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- bayern
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Re: Re: Weighted Not To Win
13 years 3 days ago
rubyclipper Wrote:
> brandhow Wrote:
>
>
> > Here's a scenario:
> >
> > Durban July 2012
> >
> > Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
> >
> > Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> > Delpech
> >
> > Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> > Dettori
> >
> > Who wins?
>
> Pierre Jourdan 60kg drawn 3 wins
PJ cannot win the July, period. Termed the People's Horse, not sure he is the bookies horse. This horse has never recaptured his early promise. Since his second in the July (2011) who has he beaten? Without Malice and Engagement - they aren't even nominees for this year's July, surely that should say something. And that's the problem, if he wins, we all say we always knew he had ability, unfortunately i cannot see that win coming on the 07/07/2012 - good luck to those who backed him.
> brandhow Wrote:
>
>
> > Here's a scenario:
> >
> > Durban July 2012
> >
> > Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
> >
> > Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> > Delpech
> >
> > Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> > Dettori
> >
> > Who wins?
>
> Pierre Jourdan 60kg drawn 3 wins

PJ cannot win the July, period. Termed the People's Horse, not sure he is the bookies horse. This horse has never recaptured his early promise. Since his second in the July (2011) who has he beaten? Without Malice and Engagement - they aren't even nominees for this year's July, surely that should say something. And that's the problem, if he wins, we all say we always knew he had ability, unfortunately i cannot see that win coming on the 07/07/2012 - good luck to those who backed him.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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