Weighted Not To Win

Excuse my ignorance but exactly how important are the weights carried in determining a winner of a horserace opposed to a good or bad draw and the experience or inexperience of the jockey?

Weight is definately the biggest stopper

Here's a scenario:

Durban July 2012

Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus

Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony Delpech

Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie Dettori

Who wins?

Merit ratings, current form etc. will come into the equation as well

But more to the point of the topic, in the BETTING WORLD JUBILEE HANDICAP (Grade 3) last saturday Seal carried 62kgs and came 5th, in the July he is set to carry 57kgs - he is not going to win the July and couldnt win a Grade 3, so isn't he an example of a horse who is weighted not to win and therefore has an MR above his ability so runs for places?

sorry he came 6th

Good question and very debatable (very puny) ... I believe it is a very subjective interpretation for each individual and no hard and fast answer.

brandhow Wrote:

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> Here's a scenario:
>
> Durban July 2012
>
> Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
>
> Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> Delpech
>
> Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> Dettori
>
> Who wins?


Hibernia, if the above horses are drawn an ridden just like above then BEACH BEAUTY wil trach the field! I hope that for some reason and luck this would happen

brandhow Wrote:

---

> Here's a scenario:
>
> Durban July 2012
>
> Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
>
> Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> Delpech
>
> Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> Dettori
>
> Who wins?

Pierre Jourdan 60kg drawn 3 wins

rubyclipper Wrote:

---

> brandhow Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Here's a scenario:
> >
> > Durban July 2012
> >
> > Jackson 57kg drawn at 20 ridden by Anton Marcus
> >
> > Beach Beauty 58kg drawn at 10 ridden by Anthony
> > Delpech
> >
> > Pomodoro 55kg drawn at 1 ridden by Frankie
> > Dettori
> >
> > Who wins?
>
> Pierre Jourdan 60kg drawn 3 wins

PJ cannot win the July, period. Termed the People's Horse, not sure he is the bookies horse. This horse has never recaptured his early promise. Since his second in the July (2011) who has he beaten? Without Malice and Engagement - they aren't even nominees for this year's July, surely that should say something. And that's the problem, if he wins, we all say we always knew he had ability, unfortunately i cannot see that win coming on the 07/07/2012 - good luck to those who backed him.