Morning clan, thoughts for today on what looks to be a fairly difficult card:
Race 1: Brantwood- Many in with a shout here, couple first timers including Turbo Tom who has been backed and the money needs to be respected. Var Light was fancied alot by anton the other day, but the MDK first timer was just too classy. Must have been showing good work back home for the money to come for it, but the drift today and currently at odds on is not for me especially being first run on the sand. Of the raced sand runners, i am leaning towards Brantwood, still a horse that is improving with each outing, and has a couple of the runners beat on the Men and Mountains formline, and i expect more improvement to come from the horse, so at 8/10 a fixed place is where my money is.
Race 2: Mr Tobin- Obviously this is a one horse race, however at a price of 2/9 there is no value at all, so we need to look for something to run second or third, and to me Xilomante seems like a nice price to me. On its third to last run it ran 13legnths behind Mr Tobin, and with the appie claiming today, is now 8.5kgs better off with a light weight of 48.5kgs, and with that sort of weight turnaround we usually can expect Xilomante to close that gap by atleast 6legnths or so. Fitted with blinkers today could also help. Sayadaw ran 14l behind that day and only 3kgs better off, hence why ive gone for Xilo fixed place at 3/1 is value, but the winner for any ATC's.
Race 3: My Chelsey Girl- Very weak field, but have gone for MCG. There is not much between her and Festive Interlude, however MCG was gaining ground toward the last 200m or so last time out, i feel the extra 250m will suit well, and that was the first outing on the sand, i believe having that experience under the belt, it should be right there fighting it out with FI. Of the other runners they are either held by FI on the last run or trying the sand for the first time which could prove to be anything, With I Own The Night probably having the best turf form. The money for MCG also needs to be respected.
Race 4: Gun Powder- Another weak field, with the obvious contenders being the likes of Class Captain and Kudos with the most consistent sand form. However i'm going for some value with Gun Powder. If one just looks at the last two runs on the sand, last time out ran in a MR80 handicap with 52kgs, now in a 68 with 53.5kg, so effectively going down 12 in the handicap, should be carrying 6kgs more(effectively 58kgs), so is 4.5kgs better off from the last run which was 7legnths behind New York, but infront of GP was the likes of NY, Formation, Emperor Augustus, who are all improving very nicely on the sand, so at a price of 16/1, i see some value to include in bets.
Race 5: To Remember- Of the 3 Gray runners, i would expect Anthony to be on the right one. It seems as thou TR has had her problems, but has enjoyed running fresh and the betting support could prove this to be the case once again. Hen Party is the obvious danger with the most consistent form. Other inclusions would have to be National Danzig and Lucky Wishes(dropping in the MR nicely so should improve from last run), but on a tough card, the 3 way coupling could be a probable banker in the P6.
Race 6: Field- Cannot make a case for any runner in the field, pick a winner and i take my hat off to you, field for me in the P6 and JP, and would probably have to add in atleast 5 runners for the PA, if not more, likely ones could be: 1,2,3,4,7,9....good luck
Race 7: Rulesofengagement- To me this gelding seems to be the one with the most consistent form, coming off a slight break may be a concern, and seems to prefer the extra furlong, but with the jockey strike, should be right there. Others to look at could be Duel Alliance, first run on the sand 2 and a bit lengths behind, and could enjoy being back on the surface, however once again is slightly too short. Dancing Lee another inclusion at a nice price, having its second run on the sand today, dropped two pounds from its last run on MR, will improve on this surface further, and if can jump on terms where last time out lost 2l out the gate, with being a kilo better off, we could see this one running into the money. Returnee was just caught late by Kruger Gold last time out, and is interesting to note that Fradd retains the ride again, and will be looking to make amends, but once again is looking for the extra furlong.
Race 8: Berrymiller- If you looking further than that it gets tough. Iron Legend was campaigning in much higher grade a couple months back and had some fair form in that company, meets much weaker today and could be involved in the finish if something is to go wrong with Berrymiller. Key Word decent sand form, but looking for further. One upset horse could be Chocolate Symphony coming from Kimberly, they obviously think the horse is good enough for this sort of company, and the form of its maiden win has been franked, with the stable firing very nicely around the country. But at 9/2 a win, very nice ew value.
Race 9: Field- Many in with chances here, for me another Field race to end the day off, cases could be made for each of the following: 1,2,4,5,8,10,13.
My play for today: Mr Tobin(w) x Gun Powder(p) x Berrymiller(p) ....8/1
If you playing a p6, my banker would be the 3 way gray coupling in race 5, with the field race 9 and 6.
Possible PA bankers could be My Chelsey Girl, Class Captain and Berrymiller
Play well
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