Racing - and jump racing in particular - is hazardous from a punting point of view. Sooner or later you will be on a runner that is fifteen lengths clear approaching the last only for it to fall, refuse or dislodge its rider. Worst of all is when its legs turn to jelly after plowing through the last jump and something comes to nab it on the post.
I have had a good look at the King George and, on paper, I have to conclude three things :
First - the obvious : This is a serious race in the making.
Second - I cannot see the winner coming from beyond the top three in the betting. Nevertheless I regard all three as live contenders to win.
Third - I am fearful that we will not see the race as it is on Boxing Day with its seasonally congested card. Tellytrack, with its attention deficit, is not going to be well disposed to a race that takes a lot longer than 56 seconds to run. But we live in hope.
Nevertheless - Here's how I will play this race. It's pretty much the same way I play most races :
For the purpose of this exercise I will refer to the horses as A, B and C. as this technique is not exclusive to the King George but also to any other race in which I get properly involved.
Betting :
A 5/4
B 9/2
C 5/1
Typically I would bet as follows ( and I use R1000 purely for illustrative purposes )
C : 1000/200
B : 1000/220
A : 500 /450
C wins me R 270 nett
B wins me R 190 nett
A wins me R 20 nett
Summary :
1.) You have 3 horses running for you and only 5 to beat. Although it is far from impossible that one of the 5 'others' wins the probability is not good. You have, therefore, dramatically reduced the risk in your betting and eliminated a massive portion of the gamble.
2.) If the favourite wins you win a pittance. But you have enjoyed a top race and done no damage. ( If you prefer you can use this method the other way around with the favourite being your big winner and the second two as cover. ) I ALWAYS punt to win the big money on the longer priced horses for a couple of reasons : a.) You are habitually spending less. Therefore you do less damage on the odd occasion that a 'spook' arrives. b.) You win a lot more when your big money selection/s arrive. c.) Don't forget that winning favourites only comprise 35% of all races run - so you will quickly be reminded just how often lesser selections arrive.
3.) As stated previously - UK betting is far more punter friendly. They seldom bet to more than 120% at any time which allows you to spread your money and show a profit more consistently. Furthermore - I find their market movements and form evaluation far more accurate than in RSA.
4.) For the novice UK punter : hurdle racing is a great place to start. A HUGE number of these races offer only two genuine runners which dramatically improves your profitability as your stake is not diluted among three ( or more ) horses.
5.) Try and avoid EVER punting only one horse in jumps racing as you have to factor in the added and unpredictable hazards of falls etc.
PS - I have asked Interbet to put up Ante-Post betting for the event. Hopefully they will be able to. This will give you the added option of taking doubles with other events if you so wish.
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