Investec Derby/Oaks

  • Bob Brogan
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Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#137930
Like a few..

OAKS

Beatrice Aurore ran well in her trial at Goodwood and seemed to handle the undulations,she will need to improve a bit on figures but at 16/1 she should give you a run for your cash..

Havant is my main fancy in the race,i was really impressed with her at Newmarket last season and being by Halling she should really improve for the trip.She has a bit to turn around the 1000 guineas form with Blue Bunting but Stoute never has them %100 first run..

DERBY

Everything points to Carlton House
(apart from the redic odds) the Dante is the main pointer to the Derby and he showed that he had Matured nicely..

Kieren Fallon rides O`briens Recital
,he won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes, a race the Ballydoyle always use for their champions on route to Epsom.He ran very green and looked like he had plenty of improvement in him and at 6/1 is the better option imo..

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  • CnC 306
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#137948
Hibs seen that you were at the Champions League Final, you should have stayed over in London for the week and you could have gone to the Oaks and the Derby. These opportunities dont come around that often.

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  • Dave Scott
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#137949
Listening to Winning Ways last night we should get good coverage plus its being shown on a seperate channel. Neil Andrews and Andrew Bon are covering it...............lucky lads (tu)

At this stage fancy Blue Bunting and Carlton House ( wonder if Neil will be asking the Queen if she had a few bob on the fav) ;)

Plus should be plenty other good races.

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  • magiclips
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#137950
Fallon riding for Ballydoyle....ah, memories, memories! Maybe the former A Team can be the A Team once more.

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#137982
The queens horse was out to 3.85 on betfair earlier,punted back in to 2/1 now though,might be a wee problem?

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  • garyp
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#137985

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  • Mavourneen
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#138015
Anyone else like Ocean War? I know he's only won a listed race so far, but I wonder ... I just wonder ... his sire Dalakhani was pretty good over a mile and a half and so was another of Dalakhani's get, Conduit, who was a super classy stamina horse. OW won that listed race by a greater distance than the race before which was his maiden, so he's obviously improving rapidly ... but rapidly enough? Maybe for a place ... the odds are good ... or maybe I'll be brave and back him to win the Derby!

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  • oscar
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#138020
I think Seville might win this but no betting as yet on Interbet..I see he is 6/1 on every other betting site

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#138093
Something to read RE Fallon and Recital ,found it interesting that Fallon has only had 2 mounts in classics since his return...





Kieren Fallon's decision to ride Recital in the Investec Derby has raised several eyebrows, as it was widely-expected that the former Ballydoyle stable jockey would partner Ed Dunlop's Native Khan in Saturday's Classic.

Nic Doggett looks at the major attributes of the big-race jockey, and where his future lies after Epsom this weekend.

At 46 years of age, Kieren Fallon brings a wealth of experience to the big races. However, since his spell on the sidelines following a lengthy suspension, the man from Co. Clare has only ridden in two Classics in the UK or Ireland, and neither was for Ballydoyle.

That statistic perhaps makes it all the more surprising that Fallon has opted to abandon the QIPCO 2000 Guineas third Native Khan in favour of Recital, a move which has surely put any working relationship with Ed Dunlop in jeopardy regardless of any denials.

However let's not pretend that this potential move wasn't on the cards, as Fallon had ridden O'Brien's colt in the Derrinstown Stud Trial at the Curragh.

With Christophe Soumillon riding Seville in the Dante at York, and confirmed on Monday as the rider of that horse in the Derby, it seems logical to assume that the booking of Fallon for the Curragh was on a similar vein.

However it's easy to see both how and why the Fallon/O'Brien partnership has been temporarily reunited.

Six-time champion Fallon was stable jockey to Ballydoyle for three years, forging fine relationships with racing superstars such as Yeats, Dylan Thomas and George Washington.

Whilst he has never won the Investec Derby for O'Brien (who surprisingly has only saddled two winners of the race), he did win the Oaks with Alexandrova, and Fallon is a proven Derby winner; Oath, Kris Kin and North Light are testament to that.

At a time when there is no confirmed Ballydoyle stable jockey, with rides generally being shared out amongst Ryan Moore, Joseph O'Brien, Colm O'Donoghue and Seamie Heffernan, this looks a statement of intent from both jockey and stable.

With regards to the Epsom market, the news saw a small contraction in Recital's price.

If the move is based solely on horse ability, then the natural assumption is that Fallon (and others) believe that the son of Montjeu is a more realistic Derby winner than Native Khan.

One might also assume that the dangled carrot of a plum ride on Wonder Of Wonders in the Oaks may also have been a factor in Fallon's decision; what better way to say "I'm back, better than ever!" than with a Classic double at Epsom?

But what does this mean in regards to Fallon's future?

With the bridge still smouldering, a full-time return to Tipperary for Fallon would be no surprise; however at 46 years of age is this really the way that Ballydoyle see their long-term future?

When Johnny Murtagh left the yard in November 2010, there was no obvious candidate to jump into his shoes, and O'Brien, with the backing of Coolmore, seemed reluctant to leap into a rebound relationship with a new stable jockey.

Pat Smullen was perhaps the most obvious candidate, being married to O'Brien's sister-in-law Frances Crowley, but he quickly ruled himself out after confirming his allegiance to Dermot Weld, whilst Fran Berry would have been an interesting swap, as Murtagh's appointment to ride the Aga Khan's horses in Ireland effectively bumped him down the order somewhat.

Soumillon looked a likely contender but despite initially sounding interested, he soon confirmed he was staying loyal to the Aga Khan's French horses.

Frenzied speculation soon followed that Jamie Spencer was to return to his former job after he was spotted riding work at Ballydoyle, a move swiftly explained by his retainer's Jim and Fitri Hay buying significant shares in the likes of Fame and Glory and Cape Blanco.

However, with those at Ballydoyle remaining tight-lipped bar implementing a 'best available' policy, the question has continued to rumble on of whether the current strategy is really working.

Ultimately were Fallon to (belatedly) fill Murtagh's boots, then it would, in all likelihood, be a short-term measure.

It is fair to say that jockeys generally don't improve after the age of 40 although the likes of the remarkable Lester Piggott, Pat Eddery and Willie Carson were still booting home big winners well into their 'golden years'.

A lifetime of poor diets and persistent wasting takes its toll, and jockeys have to rely more on their brains than their muscles.

There is little doubt that Fallon used to be such a force because he was able to combine both elements to perfection in the big races, however since his comeback the (still busy) style of Fallon has become less animated and less forceful.

This is less of a problem when riding animals with immense talent, and he will certainly do that if re-installed at Ballydoyle, however we know that in such a driven organisation, those in charge will be unwilling to compromise when it comes to the best horses being ridden by the best jockey.

And perhaps that is the crux of O'Brien's problem; the best are currently unavailable.

Ryan Moore is committed to Sir Michael Stoute, and whilst in demand, he is rarely free for the big races, Tom Queally has been a key part of Henry Cecil's recent resurgence, whilst Paul Hanagan is settled in the north with Richard Fahey, and would be unlikely to cross the Irish Sea permanently.

Ultimately one, or even more of these jockeys may become free in the next few years, and they could easily be installed at O'Brien's Tipperary base, however for the time being employing Fallon as a short-term stopgap would have to be seen as beneficial to all parties.

This result of weekend's Classics may go a long way to eventually resolving the long saga of the next Ballydoyle stable jockey.

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  • kittycatoo
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#138196
I really like CH. Won cosily last time and has the makings of a top horse.

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  • Dave Scott
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#138212
So do I but might not run?

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  • Chris van Buuren
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Re: Re: Investec Derby/Oaks

14 years 1 week ago
#138218
I like Beatrice Aurore on her last run. She looks very progressive.

The Derby proper is open this year with no stand outs for me. Not sure the Queen's horse will stay and I don't like the injury scares anyway. Fallon is interesting on Recital but I fancy Pour Moi to run a big race! He has been heavily supported throughout the lead up! Last year the French took the 2000 Guineas with Makfi, maybe this is their Derby year??

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