Arlington and Greyville Friday

Good Days racing lets get stuck in!!!

Agree will have a look in the morning and watch what the experts post?

Let's start with Arlington Race 1:

R1: The favorite should prove to be a false one and certainly no value from that draw and with a new Jockey in the saddle and top weight should find it hard to win. Toughest opposition could come in the form of the Smith Coupling, especially State Jewel from top draw with strike Jockey for this top Smith Stable Kennedy in the saddle and a 60% DC place % (0-12-20) achieved. Ran on strongly in Y going over 1600 back from a rest at Fairview when supported from 25 into 20/1 I make State Jewel my 1st choice to place even on 2nd RR. 1st choice of winner goes to Triumphal Arch - another whom I see in the winners enclosure rather than High Mass. Triumphant Arch being taken over by DA Mchlachlan from the Paddock stable so Paddock should know the strentgh of this one, however I have seen better improvement since in Mchlachlan's care Feb 2011 and I make this one another runner with a chance to win, especially given the intent of Mchlachlan booking Teetam and next runner only in Race 6...now with Bl being fitted onto State Jewel I believe Triumphant Arch might be the right one @ 11/1 excellent value. 3rd Choice goes to the Van Rensburg stable in the form of Ballerina Girl / Enjoyment. Ballerina Girl stood 5 lengths last run and for a 6 length beating to High Mass, however the draws has been reversed as well and entered as a coupling I prefer this one above High Mass as well. The other van Rensburg runner Enjoyment has some claims and must be given a mention trying blinkers again for the 2nd time and looking like improving 1st run trying Bl but cramping late and today from a good draw with Barend Vlooh on again that did not have a bad run on Enjoyment back 13 Dec 2010. This is where my choice of winners stops...on places the Greeff stable has to be mentioned as well in the form of Old Heritage. Jet' D Eau did not perform it's only try this DC over 1600 but must be given another chance although not my likely winner....La Perle must be respected for 3rd/4th as well.

In Summary Triumphant Arch worth a place bet @ around 2.80 for 3 places alternatively State Jewel ....if one of these 2 does not win less likely winner one of the van Rensburg runners, therefore High Mass a value Lay.

All the best Shrek with your girlie tomorrow... (tu)

Arlington Race 3:

I do not like to comment on Juveniles especially maiden juveniles (although King Shaka is tempted E/w value @ 10/1) , hence let's look at Race 3 rather.

Looks like Greeff has the hand here and I will lean towards the stable Jockey preferred Malbec although the 2 Greeff horses will get you through the PA. Malbec has been taken over by Greeff in Jan 2011, however since it has not run over the DC where it has had decent results in the Cape yet. It ran over 1000 and 1400 twice for the new stable and today is the 1st time coming back over the distance that looked more suited on recent Cape Form . Additionally stable Jock preferred and 4 draw and running on both runs over 1400 ARL it looks as if the extra 400 should suit although proven over 1600 more. Additionally finding some support last run only 5 days back with Byleveld he should be the right one if the run does not come to soon after. Good backup is stable companion Classic Speed proven 100% place record over 1800 and decent 6 draw and also placing last 2 runs at Arlington I am starting to lean towards this one more if it was not for stable jockey preferring Malbec...however should not have to look further than these 2 for the winner. Cut & Thrust does not look far off but does have a slight draw to overcome and Classtasy will continue it's front running tactics this time with a new apprentice combination Andrews in the saddle. Small mention to upset potential Tucana that is coming back to turf where it has done well over this DC in the Cape, however a 15 draw is alot to ask for it to feature in the closing stages. Detective Barnaby and Classic Destiny could start improving now to fill the lessor places for the new van Rensburg stable.

in summary winner coming from Greeff very little to choose between the 2 with Byleveld being the stable jockey having to count for the guideline however on form alone Classic Speed just tips it.

Arlington Race 4:

A few with chances here, but I do like the look of the Snaith coupling the most here. OF the 2 I fancy Fancy Park with Agrella coming back in the saddle and a 100% place record in the EC the most. Was given a steep 6 point (3kg) penalty on the last run so no good thing since on stats has won both Fairview starts but found one better on the Arlington run. Therefore should find something to beat it again and when looking past Fancy Park there is a few others with claims. Stable companion Diamond Express has won it's only try ARL well as well with Agrella onboard and now gets Ashby onboard and a better draw as well as only a 1,5kg penalty on that win last, however the search for a winner does not stop here. 4 time winner this distance 4-3-10 CD 2-2-5 and a 6 time winner is certainly one to be included in exotics in the form of Tree Flag, Flichity was supported last when flying at the death so have to be included as well as What a Beaut that can be anything back from the res for the Smith stable and given the type of race Westa Wacker that has won it's only 2 tries this distance also have to be included for exotics here. Personally Gilmore Girl seems a bit short for me so again a favorite that is more value to Lay.

In summary a race where Fancy Park will try but upset potential in finding the winner...if above 2.00 a place Fancy Park is value for a place bet, small PA banker Fancy Park however for the larger PA I will add Diamond Express, Tree Flag, Flichity & What a Beaut. I would Lay Gilmore Girl to win here.

The 4th at Arlington is interesting in that both Gilmore Girl and Fancy Park ran quite a bit above their current rating in their last runs.
I think that it could be a bit short now for GG and so, if FP can repeat, she should win this.

In the 4th Tree Flag is HUGE value at 16/1 and 4/1 a place!!!!
For me Fancy Park will be stretched at 1800m and Gilmore may find it a little short. Anyway I believe she ran so far above her rating last time she will bounce and find it hard to repeat. (However I would love for Shrek if she does do so!!!)

Tree Flag would get my money no doubt!!!

Tommy i think you found a nice shrewdie in that race !

But i'm gonna side with Rob on this one . I think Fancy park will win it by a short head from Rozelana(who on a line through Ozzy dude has tree flag beaten ) and Tree flag .

Tanzania is the ''unknown'' in the 4th ... going the distance for the first time?

Good morning gents and thanks for some superb contributions.

All the best with Gilmore Girl.

My Lords Throat is owe me a few rand and all the best with Ibrox Park to my Gers friend

Good punting!

Thanks Guys, we are hoping for another decent run for Gilmore Girl today. Gavin has told us that she is very fit and well, he would have prefered a longer race but there are no suitable races for a while so we will take our chances in this one. He has the appy aboard as she is a not a horse that needs strong handling, which would bring her back to her mark in her last run.

We have been told that she is worth an eachway bet. It certainally wasn't me who took the 9/2 yesterday and the 33/10 is too short in a competitive race like this which is short of her optimal trip. We are hopeful that she will end in the number 1 box again today but time will tell.