Not a bad card on the sand today imo; some thoughts (for those that are interested - my form has taken a dip recently):
R1: On her best runs, I think Blazing June should win here; Mandla the obvious danger, but has to go 1600 for the first time while Condoleza has finished almost 7 lengths behind Zie Zie Gabor in her previous try on this track - hard to make a case for her on that
R2: Midnight Dragon the obvious one, but not sure to act on the sand - so an upset not out of the question
R3: Not the strongest maiden field and plenty who tries the sand for the first time - The Western and National Fleet have at least placed here, but I am loading up in the PA
R4: Colca Canyon has been expensive to follow, but really looks hard to beat here imo
R5: Open looking handicap - Great Khan worthy favorite on his last run, but Count Dumani has come down in the ratings and has won his only try this track and trip, so can feature, while Right Of Admission is best over this trip and should be thereabouts as well with Leprecorns Gift - not sure about Dallas Dancer who seems a bit high in the handicap imo
R6: I make Parlotone a good thing today; he is ideally suited to this trip and is sure to go close again - Silver Specialist is the only 3yr old in the race and could improve more, but is 1kg out at the weights and seems held by Harry Prince on their last run, while Boylan Blaze and Forest need to shoulder big weights but could still place
R7: Open fillies handicap; I think Caprichosa has the most scope and should go close; chances to Even Enchanted, Flaming Waters and Pocket Magic; Polo was unplaced in her only try over this trip and does not look any value to me at odds-on.
R8; Another fillies handicap where Prismatic Fire (who suffered a slipped saddle last time) should go close again, but I make this quite an open race - all of Fayette, Maclaine, Velvet Jar and Desolate View could feature
R9: Competitve sprint; Kentucky Express has not finished out of the places yet over this trip and is a worthy favorite imo; obvious chances to Gold Game, Second World and Valloire, while Rockingandrollng could easily prove good enough if not needing the run after a long break
R10: Another fillies handicap to close and not a race to try and get out of it imo; De La Patrie is ideally course and distance suited and should feature even if the Magner stable has been struggling a bit to find the winners enclosure in recent weeks; I make the danger Mocha Special who ran well behind Xilomante in her only try on the sand and has come down 4 points on that run - 7/1 not a bad price imo
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